Austin Peay
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#171
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#144
Pace68.9#196
Improvement+2.1#91

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#64
First Shot+3.2#81
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#124
Layup/Dunks-1.3#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#239
Freethrows+3.3#12
Improvement-0.4#208

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#289
First Shot-3.3#284
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#227
Layups/Dunks-1.3#233
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#228
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#214
Freethrows-0.8#233
Improvement+2.5#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.7% 15.8% 11.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 96.5% 98.1% 90.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.0%
Conference Champion 24.6% 28.2% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round14.6% 15.7% 10.9%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 77.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 33 - 11
Quad 416 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 106   @ Western Kentucky L 75-97 24%     0 - 1 -14.7 +6.0 -21.4
  Nov 16, 2019 98   @ Tulsa L 65-72 22%     0 - 2 +0.9 -1.0 +1.9
  Nov 20, 2019 150   @ Vanderbilt L 72-90 35%     0 - 3 -14.3 +1.4 -16.1
  Nov 23, 2019 326   SE Louisiana W 81-60 88%     1 - 3 +8.1 -3.2 +9.8
  Nov 25, 2019 319   South Carolina St. W 92-66 87%     2 - 3 +13.5 +13.4 +1.1
  Dec 03, 2019 39   @ Arkansas L 61-69 10%     2 - 4 +6.1 -2.3 +8.4
  Dec 07, 2019 172   North Florida W 90-83 61%     3 - 4 +4.0 +8.3 -4.6
  Dec 12, 2019 8   @ West Virginia L 53-84 5%     3 - 5 -12.0 -7.7 -4.5
  Dec 21, 2019 90   Duquesne L 77-86 28%     3 - 6 -3.1 +3.6 -6.2
  Dec 22, 2019 340   Alabama St. W 80-69 88%     4 - 6 -2.0 +5.2 -6.8
  Dec 30, 2019 73   @ Georgia L 48-78 17%     4 - 7 -19.9 -21.9 +2.8
  Jan 02, 2020 329   Southeast Missouri St. W 78-63 89%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +1.7 +7.0 -3.4
  Jan 04, 2020 303   Tennessee Martin W 82-63 85%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +7.7 -1.2 +9.3
  Jan 09, 2020 342   @ Tennessee Tech W 75-62 83%     7 - 7 3 - 0 +2.6 -2.0 +4.5
  Jan 11, 2020 231   @ Jacksonville St. W 71-67 54%     8 - 7 4 - 0 +2.8 +2.4 +0.6
  Jan 16, 2020 329   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 84-59 76%     9 - 7 5 - 0 +17.5 +13.5 +6.2
  Jan 18, 2020 303   @ Tennessee Martin W 92-81 70%     10 - 7 6 - 0 +5.4 +11.2 -5.6
  Jan 23, 2020 247   Tennessee St. W 80-72 77%    
  Jan 25, 2020 88   Belmont L 76-79 38%    
  Jan 30, 2020 337   SIU Edwardsville W 82-67 93%    
  Feb 01, 2020 218   Eastern Illinois W 77-71 72%    
  Feb 06, 2020 247   @ Tennessee St. W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 08, 2020 88   @ Belmont L 73-82 20%    
  Feb 13, 2020 130   Murray St. W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 15, 2020 315   Eastern Kentucky W 86-74 87%    
  Feb 20, 2020 337   @ SIU Edwardsville W 79-70 81%    
  Feb 22, 2020 218   @ Eastern Illinois W 75-74 51%    
  Feb 27, 2020 293   Morehead St. W 78-68 83%    
  Feb 29, 2020 130   @ Murray St. L 73-78 32%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.7 9.8 7.7 2.6 0.4 24.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 8.0 13.7 6.5 0.5 30.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.9 12.2 13.0 4.5 0.1 34.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.9 0.1 2.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.4 8.4 15.9 21.6 21.9 16.4 8.2 2.6 0.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.0
16-2 94.3% 7.7    5.8 1.9
15-3 59.9% 9.8    3.9 4.9 1.0
14-4 16.8% 3.7    0.6 1.9 1.1 0.0
13-5 1.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.6% 24.6 13.3 8.9 2.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 33.0% 33.0% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 2.6% 34.2% 34.2% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.7
16-2 8.2% 28.8% 28.8% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 5.8
15-3 16.4% 23.3% 23.3% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.5 0.1 12.6
14-4 21.9% 16.7% 16.7% 14.7 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.3 18.2
13-5 21.6% 10.7% 10.7% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.4 19.3
12-6 15.9% 6.9% 6.9% 15.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 14.8
11-7 8.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 8.0
10-8 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 3.3
9-9 1.0% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.9
8-10 0.3% 0.3
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 14.5 0.2 1.6 5.2 6.3 1.4 85.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.5 49.2 47.5 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%