Cal St. Bakersfield
Western Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#218
Expected Predictive Rating-5.7#254
Pace64.3#307
Improvement+3.2#43

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#202
First Shot-3.9#296
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#21
Layup/Dunks-3.3#300
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#307
Freethrows-1.9#311
Improvement+2.1#64

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#238
First Shot-3.9#303
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#51
Layups/Dunks+4.6#34
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#335
Freethrows-5.0#350
Improvement+1.1#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 7.2% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 18.6% 19.8% 5.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.1% 80.3% 53.6%
Conference Champion 4.1% 4.3% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four3.7% 3.7% 3.3%
First Round5.5% 5.7% 2.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 52 - 11
Quad 411 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 133   South Dakota St. L 91-93 2OT 40%     0 - 1 -2.7 -2.4 +0.1
  Nov 13, 2019 66   @ Northern Iowa L 55-67 10%     0 - 2 -1.1 -6.8 +4.1
  Nov 19, 2019 104   @ San Francisco L 70-100 15%     0 - 3 -22.5 -3.1 -19.1
  Nov 23, 2019 3   @ Gonzaga L 49-77 2%     0 - 4 -6.6 -15.7 +9.2
  Nov 26, 2019 186   Sam Houston St. L 65-74 53%     0 - 5 -13.1 -11.3 -1.6
  Nov 29, 2019 325   Hampton W 70-57 82%     1 - 5 +0.1 -14.2 +14.2
  Dec 03, 2019 160   UC Santa Barbara L 60-64 47%     1 - 6 -6.5 -5.8 -1.4
  Dec 07, 2019 102   @ Mississippi L 67-83 15%     1 - 7 -8.4 +6.7 -17.3
  Dec 14, 2019 318   @ Idaho L 70-76 OT 63%     1 - 8 -12.8 -13.2 +1.2
  Dec 19, 2019 237   Montana St. W 74-72 64%     2 - 8 -5.1 +1.6 -6.6
  Dec 21, 2019 317   @ Cal Poly W 72-50 63%     3 - 8 +15.3 +7.6 +10.6
  Dec 29, 2019 22   @ Texas Tech L 58-73 5%     3 - 9 +1.2 +1.1 -1.1
  Jan 04, 2020 221   Grand Canyon W 69-62 61%     4 - 9 1 - 0 +0.7 -4.5 +5.5
  Jan 08, 2020 182   California Baptist L 75-83 51%     4 - 10 1 - 1 -11.7 -1.8 -9.8
  Jan 16, 2020 243   @ UMKC W 74-64 OT 43%     5 - 10 2 - 1 +8.4 +1.5 +7.1
  Jan 18, 2020 353   @ Chicago St. W 79-64 92%    
  Jan 23, 2020 276   Utah Valley W 71-65 72%    
  Jan 25, 2020 197   Seattle W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 30, 2020 95   @ New Mexico St. L 59-70 14%    
  Feb 01, 2020 258   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 06, 2020 182   @ California Baptist L 69-74 30%    
  Feb 13, 2020 353   Chicago St. W 82-61 97%    
  Feb 15, 2020 243   UMKC W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 20, 2020 276   @ Utah Valley W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 22, 2020 197   @ Seattle L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 27, 2020 258   UT Rio Grande Valley W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 29, 2020 95   New Mexico St. L 61-67 31%    
  Mar 07, 2020 221   @ Grand Canyon L 66-69 40%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.6 7.2 4.4 0.8 0.1 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.8 7.6 10.6 4.3 0.5 0.0 23.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 6.2 10.0 2.8 0.1 19.6 4th
5th 0.1 3.6 8.6 2.2 0.1 14.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 6.3 2.2 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.7 2.0 0.1 6.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.7 12.4 17.8 20.6 18.1 12.2 6.5 2.1 0.6 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 90.5% 0.6    0.4 0.2
13-3 60.3% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1
12-4 24.8% 1.6    0.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
11-5 4.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 1.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.6% 19.0% 19.0% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-3 2.1% 20.3% 20.3% 15.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.7
12-4 6.5% 14.8% 14.8% 15.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 5.6
11-5 12.2% 11.1% 11.1% 15.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 10.9
10-6 18.1% 8.9% 8.9% 15.9 0.1 1.5 16.5
9-7 20.6% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 1.1 19.4
8-8 17.8% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.8 17.0
7-9 12.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.4 12.1
6-10 6.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.2 6.6
5-11 2.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-12 0.5% 0.5
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 5.6 93.0 0.0%