NC Central
Mid-Eastern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.7#317
Expected Predictive Rating-11.7#326
Pace65.6#281
Improvement-0.6#195

Offense
Total Offense-6.6#330
First Shot-7.2#340
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#138
Layup/Dunks+0.6#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#242
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#319
Freethrows-1.4#275
Improvement+0.1#174

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#263
First Shot-0.6#179
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#339
Layups/Dunks-1.9#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#226
Freethrows-1.1#246
Improvement-0.6#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.6% 12.2% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 8.0% 17.1% 4.5%
.500 or above in Conference 76.4% 91.0% 70.7%
Conference Champion 7.7% 16.6% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four8.5% 11.7% 7.2%
First Round3.7% 5.1% 3.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Away) - 28.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 411 - 911 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 144   @ Stephen F. Austin L 64-94 10%     0 - 1 -25.6 -15.8 -5.2
  Nov 11, 2019 311   South Carolina Upstate W 73-64 60%     1 - 1 -3.2 -13.1 +9.0
  Nov 15, 2019 72   @ Akron L 47-57 4%     1 - 2 +0.2 -22.1 +22.8
  Nov 17, 2019 10   @ Louisville L 58-87 1%     1 - 3 -10.3 +0.9 -14.2
  Nov 19, 2019 237   @ Youngstown St. L 60-66 21%     1 - 4 -7.3 -7.2 -0.9
  Nov 26, 2019 192   @ Southern Illinois L 48-64 16%     1 - 5 -14.8 -13.0 -4.8
  Dec 02, 2019 138   @ Wofford L 59-77 10%     1 - 6 -13.3 -12.1 -1.9
  Dec 04, 2019 61   @ Georgia L 59-95 4%     1 - 7 -24.7 -10.2 -13.6
  Dec 07, 2019 301   @ Charleston Southern L 53-58 34%     1 - 8 -10.3 -16.3 +5.4
  Dec 14, 2019 159   @ Coastal Carolina L 71-91 11%     1 - 9 -16.5 -2.0 -14.2
  Dec 17, 2019 86   @ Louisiana Tech L 60-69 5%     1 - 10 +0.3 +2.0 -3.4
  Jan 04, 2020 304   Florida A&M W 61-45 58%     2 - 10 1 - 0 +4.4 -10.0 +15.5
  Jan 11, 2020 348   @ Delaware St. L 66-68 69%     2 - 11 1 - 1 -16.7 -14.9 -1.5
  Jan 13, 2020 352   @ Maryland Eastern Shore W 69-64 OT 77%     3 - 11 2 - 1 -12.5 -1.3 -11.0
  Jan 18, 2020 279   @ Bethune-Cookman L 67-73 28%    
  Jan 20, 2020 304   @ Florida A&M L 62-66 36%    
  Jan 25, 2020 348   Delaware St. W 72-61 85%    
  Feb 01, 2020 326   South Carolina St. W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 03, 2020 280   Norfolk St. L 61-62 50%    
  Feb 08, 2020 334   @ Coppin St. L 69-70 45%    
  Feb 10, 2020 310   @ Morgan St. L 68-71 38%    
  Feb 15, 2020 288   @ N.C. A&T L 63-68 31%    
  Feb 22, 2020 352   Maryland Eastern Shore W 64-50 89%    
  Feb 24, 2020 349   Howard W 77-66 85%    
  Feb 29, 2020 326   @ South Carolina St. L 67-69 42%    
  Mar 02, 2020 279   Bethune-Cookman L 70-71 50%    
  Mar 05, 2020 288   N.C. A&T W 66-65 53%    
Projected Record 10 - 17 9 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 3.2 2.2 0.8 0.1 7.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 5.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 6.5 4.7 0.5 12.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 5.7 6.8 0.7 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.4 8.6 1.7 0.0 15.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.3 8.3 3.7 0.1 15.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.2 4.4 0.2 13.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 3.8 2.6 0.4 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 7.1 12.6 18.0 19.3 16.5 12.2 6.8 2.7 0.8 0.1 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 96.6% 0.8    0.7 0.1 0.0
13-3 83.6% 2.2    1.5 0.7 0.1
12-4 47.8% 3.2    1.0 1.4 0.7 0.1
11-5 10.3% 1.3    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 3.3 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.1% 32.1% 32.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.8% 28.6% 28.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 0.6
13-3 2.7% 18.7% 18.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 2.2
12-4 6.8% 19.4% 19.4% 16.0 1.3 5.5
11-5 12.2% 14.8% 14.8% 16.0 1.8 10.4
10-6 16.5% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 1.9 14.7
9-7 19.3% 7.8% 7.8% 16.0 1.5 17.8
8-8 18.0% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.8 17.2
7-9 12.6% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 12.2
6-10 7.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 6.9
5-11 2.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-12 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.6 91.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%