New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.5#94
Expected Predictive Rating+4.8#101
Pace63.4#317
Improvement+2.5#74

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#99
First Shot-0.7#201
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#14
Layup/Dunks-0.8#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#35
Freethrows-1.7#295
Improvement+2.2#62

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#92
First Shot+1.6#118
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#72
Layups/Dunks+3.3#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#184
Freethrows-0.4#211
Improvement+0.3#159
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.9% 54.9% 50.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 93.0% 95.2% 85.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round53.9% 54.9% 50.3%
Second Round10.1% 10.6% 8.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.9% 3.1% 2.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Away) - 78.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 2
Quad 36 - 57 - 7
Quad 416 - 123 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2019 150   @ UTEP L 50-65 56%     0 - 1 -11.2 -13.1 +0.7
  Nov 14, 2019 329   Southern W 79-63 95%     1 - 1 +2.2 +3.9 -0.7
  Nov 17, 2019 11   @ Arizona L 53-83 12%     1 - 2 -11.9 -11.0 -1.5
  Nov 21, 2019 118   New Mexico L 77-78 69%     1 - 3 -0.6 +0.5 -1.1
  Nov 25, 2019 101   Colorado St. W 78-70 OT 52%     2 - 3 +13.0 +1.2 +11.2
  Nov 26, 2019 116   South Florida W 65-45 58%     3 - 3 +23.3 +8.3 +18.5
  Nov 27, 2019 153   George Mason L 64-68 67%     3 - 4 -3.1 +0.9 -4.6
  Dec 03, 2019 150   UTEP W 59-56 76%     4 - 4 +1.0 -6.8 +8.0
  Dec 07, 2019 127   Washington St. L 54-63 61%     4 - 5 -6.4 -15.4 +8.7
  Dec 10, 2019 317   @ Denver W 72-67 86%     5 - 5 -1.4 -6.3 +4.7
  Dec 14, 2019 118   @ New Mexico L 62-69 47%     5 - 6 -0.7 -9.6 +8.8
  Dec 18, 2019 347   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 65-40 98%     6 - 6 +5.4 +1.6 +9.3
  Dec 22, 2019 41   Mississippi St. W 58-52 30%     7 - 6 +17.0 -2.3 +20.2
  Jan 04, 2020 175   @ California Baptist W 86-71 62%     8 - 6 1 - 0 +17.4 +17.8 +0.5
  Jan 09, 2020 353   Chicago St. W 93-54 99%     9 - 6 2 - 0 +14.6 +2.9 +10.1
  Jan 11, 2020 245   UMKC W 74-71 88%     10 - 6 3 - 0 -4.5 -0.3 -4.1
  Jan 16, 2020 268   @ Utah Valley W 70-56 79%     11 - 6 4 - 0 +10.9 +1.2 +10.4
  Jan 18, 2020 196   @ Seattle W 75-67 69%     12 - 6 5 - 0 +8.4 +8.1 +0.9
  Jan 25, 2020 260   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 72-64 78%    
  Jan 30, 2020 224   Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-58 87%    
  Feb 01, 2020 214   Grand Canyon W 73-61 87%    
  Feb 06, 2020 353   @ Chicago St. W 82-58 99%    
  Feb 08, 2020 245   @ UMKC W 69-62 75%    
  Feb 13, 2020 196   Seattle W 72-61 85%    
  Feb 15, 2020 268   Utah Valley W 73-59 91%    
  Feb 22, 2020 260   UT Rio Grande Valley W 75-61 90%    
  Feb 27, 2020 214   @ Grand Canyon W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 29, 2020 224   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-61 71%    
  Mar 05, 2020 175   California Baptist W 74-65 80%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 5.5 15.5 27.3 28.5 15.3 93.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 2.5 1.4 0.3 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.8 8.1 16.9 27.6 28.5 15.3 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 15.3    15.3
15-1 100.0% 28.5    28.4 0.1
14-2 99.0% 27.3    25.8 1.4
13-3 91.8% 15.5    12.6 2.8 0.1
12-4 68.5% 5.5    2.9 2.3 0.4
11-5 33.0% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1
10-6 9.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 93.0% 93.0 85.1 7.1 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 15.3% 64.2% 64.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.8 6.5 1.4 0.1 5.5
15-1 28.5% 60.0% 60.0% 12.7 0.2 6.4 8.7 1.8 0.0 11.4
14-2 27.6% 52.6% 52.6% 13.1 0.0 2.4 8.2 3.7 0.3 13.1
13-3 16.9% 46.6% 46.6% 13.5 0.5 3.3 3.5 0.6 0.0 9.0
12-4 8.1% 42.7% 42.7% 13.9 0.0 1.0 1.7 0.7 0.0 4.6
11-5 2.8% 33.0% 33.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.9
10-6 0.8% 33.3% 33.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5
9-7 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-8 0.1% 0.1
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 53.9% 53.9% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0 15.7 22.7 11.2 2.1 0.1 46.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.8% 100.0% 11.9 0.1 0.2 1.0 18.3 65.7 14.1 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2%