New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#74
Expected Predictive Rating-7.9#270
Pace65.8#286
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#71
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#81
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.3% 52.5% 37.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 14.2
.500 or above 97.5% 97.6% 83.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 98.9% 93.3%
Conference Champion 69.1% 69.3% 42.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 0.0%
First Round52.0% 52.1% 37.1%
Second Round13.2% 13.2% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen4.7% 4.7% 2.2%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 37 - 6
Quad 415 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2019 127   @ UTEP L 50-65 58%     0 - 1 -10.0 -13.3 +2.1
  Nov 14, 2019 345   Southern W 78-54 99%    
  Nov 17, 2019 18   @ Arizona L 65-75 18%    
  Nov 21, 2019 86   New Mexico W 80-76 65%    
  Nov 25, 2019 190   Colorado St. W 74-65 78%    
  Dec 03, 2019 127   UTEP W 71-63 77%    
  Dec 07, 2019 131   Washington St. W 75-70 68%    
  Dec 10, 2019 302   @ Denver W 76-64 86%    
  Dec 14, 2019 86   @ New Mexico L 77-79 44%    
  Dec 22, 2019 58   Mississippi St. L 68-70 45%    
  Dec 29, 2019 346   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 78-54 99%    
  Jan 04, 2020 199   @ California Baptist W 78-72 70%    
  Jan 09, 2020 353   Chicago St. W 91-60 99.7%   
  Jan 11, 2020 237   UMKC W 75-61 89%    
  Jan 16, 2020 273   @ Utah Valley W 75-65 80%    
  Jan 18, 2020 236   @ Seattle W 72-64 75%    
  Jan 25, 2020 253   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-65 77%    
  Jan 30, 2020 212   Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-60 86%    
  Feb 01, 2020 152   Grand Canyon W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 06, 2020 353   @ Chicago St. W 88-63 98%    
  Feb 08, 2020 237   @ UMKC W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 13, 2020 236   Seattle W 75-61 89%    
  Feb 15, 2020 273   Utah Valley W 78-62 91%    
  Feb 22, 2020 253   UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-62 89%    
  Feb 27, 2020 152   @ Grand Canyon W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 29, 2020 212   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-63 72%    
  Mar 05, 2020 199   California Baptist W 81-69 85%    
Projected Record 20 - 7 13 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 5.9 13.1 18.8 18.3 11.7 69.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 4.6 6.2 3.8 1.1 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.5 0.9 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.4 0.2 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.9 8.5 13.0 17.0 19.9 18.3 11.7 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 11.7    11.7
15-1 100.0% 18.3    17.9 0.4
14-2 94.4% 18.8    16.1 2.7 0.0
13-3 77.3% 13.1    8.8 4.0 0.3
12-4 45.6% 5.9    2.5 2.6 0.8 0.1
11-5 14.3% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1
10-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 69.1% 69.1 57.2 10.2 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 11.7% 78.4% 76.0% 2.4% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.6 2.6 1.6 0.2 2.5 10.0%
15-1 18.3% 68.6% 67.9% 0.7% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.8 4.6 4.1 1.3 0.3 5.8 2.2%
14-2 19.9% 61.0% 60.9% 0.1% 13.1 0.4 3.0 4.9 2.9 0.9 0.1 7.8 0.3%
13-3 17.0% 49.6% 49.6% 13.5 0.1 1.2 3.1 2.8 1.2 0.1 8.6
12-4 13.0% 40.0% 40.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.6 0.3 7.8
11-5 8.5% 28.5% 28.5% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.4 6.1
10-6 5.9% 25.0% 25.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 4.5
9-7 3.0% 17.4% 17.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.5
8-8 1.5% 15.9% 15.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.3
7-9 0.7% 17.8% 17.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.6
6-10 0.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 52.3% 51.9% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.8 3.9 11.7 15.3 10.3 5.9 1.8 47.7 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 4.5 3.3 6.6 14.8 31.1 21.3 8.2 11.5 1.6 1.6