Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#125
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#155
Pace65.2#285
Improvement+1.2#131

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#155
First Shot+2.1#105
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#268
Layup/Dunks+1.3#119
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#22
Freethrows-1.4#280
Improvement+0.6#136

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#128
First Shot-0.4#174
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#33
Layups/Dunks-3.6#310
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#4
Freethrows+2.1#47
Improvement+0.6#148
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.4% 32.5% 28.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 99.3% 99.9% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.8% 98.1%
Conference Champion 48.3% 61.6% 34.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round30.3% 32.5% 28.0%
Second Round3.4% 4.1% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 51.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 36 - 46 - 7
Quad 414 - 321 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 63   @ Texas L 45-69 21%     0 - 1 -13.0 -19.4 +5.7
  Nov 08, 2019 347   Incarnate Word W 83-61 97%     1 - 1 +1.7 +7.8 -4.0
  Nov 16, 2019 60   @ Northern Iowa L 72-77 OT 20%     1 - 2 +6.3 -5.1 +11.9
  Nov 18, 2019 6   @ West Virginia L 61-69 7%     1 - 3 +11.6 +5.8 +5.1
  Nov 26, 2019 177   Boston University W 78-55 62%     2 - 3 +22.3 +7.6 +15.8
  Nov 27, 2019 247   Gardner-Webb L 62-67 76%     2 - 4 -10.0 -8.0 -2.5
  Dec 14, 2019 281   @ Wyoming W 74-53 73%     3 - 4 +17.3 +16.3 +5.0
  Dec 17, 2019 315   Denver W 86-64 91%     4 - 4 +9.9 +1.2 +7.1
  Dec 20, 2019 173   South Dakota W 87-68 62%     5 - 4 +18.4 +8.9 +9.4
  Dec 28, 2019 217   @ Portland St. L 65-69 62%     5 - 5 0 - 1 -4.6 -10.3 +5.7
  Jan 02, 2020 237   Montana St. W 68-59 82%     6 - 5 1 - 1 +1.8 +0.4 +2.4
  Jan 04, 2020 185   Montana W 74-66 73%     7 - 5 2 - 1 +4.1 +3.3 +1.1
  Jan 09, 2020 277   @ Weber St. W 65-64 72%     8 - 5 3 - 1 -2.6 -8.2 +5.6
  Jan 16, 2020 209   Sacramento St. W 71-52 79%     9 - 5 4 - 1 +13.1 +8.9 +6.7
  Jan 18, 2020 218   Northern Arizona L 58-64 80%     9 - 6 4 - 2 -12.4 -13.4 +0.3
  Jan 25, 2020 321   @ Idaho W 74-53 81%     10 - 6 5 - 2 +14.2 +9.8 +7.1
  Jan 27, 2020 175   @ Eastern Washington W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 30, 2020 317   Idaho St. W 74-59 93%    
  Feb 01, 2020 277   Weber St. W 73-61 87%    
  Feb 06, 2020 154   @ Southern Utah L 65-66 47%    
  Feb 10, 2020 217   Portland St. W 77-68 80%    
  Feb 13, 2020 218   @ Northern Arizona W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 15, 2020 209   @ Sacramento St. W 61-58 59%    
  Feb 20, 2020 154   Southern Utah W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 22, 2020 317   @ Idaho St. W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 27, 2020 321   Idaho W 73-58 92%    
  Feb 29, 2020 175   Eastern Washington W 77-71 71%    
  Mar 05, 2020 185   @ Montana W 67-66 51%    
  Mar 07, 2020 237   @ Montana St. W 68-64 63%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 9.3 15.4 13.6 6.6 1.6 48.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 6.8 10.3 4.0 0.6 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.7 6.4 2.0 0.1 13.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 4.1 1.2 0.1 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.6 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.7 11.1 16.4 21.6 19.6 14.2 6.6 1.6 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-3 100.0% 6.6    6.4 0.2
16-4 95.8% 13.6    11.8 1.7 0.0
15-5 78.7% 15.4    9.5 5.3 0.6 0.0
14-6 43.0% 9.3    2.7 4.6 1.7 0.2
13-7 11.1% 1.8    0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 48.3% 48.3 32.2 12.4 3.2 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.6% 52.1% 52.1% 12.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8
17-3 6.6% 43.0% 43.0% 13.1 0.5 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.7
16-4 14.2% 40.2% 40.2% 13.6 0.2 2.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.5
15-5 19.6% 33.7% 33.7% 14.0 0.0 1.5 3.8 1.3 0.0 13.0
14-6 21.6% 31.0% 31.0% 14.3 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.6 0.2 14.9
13-7 16.4% 25.7% 25.7% 14.7 0.1 1.3 2.4 0.3 12.2
12-8 11.1% 21.0% 21.0% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.4 8.8
11-9 5.7% 14.0% 14.0% 15.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 4.9
10-10 2.4% 14.1% 14.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.1
9-11 0.8% 7.5% 7.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.7
8-12 0.2% 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 30.4% 30.4% 0.0% 14.1 0.1 1.3 6.5 12.4 8.8 1.4 69.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 12.2 9.4 63.5 25.9 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%