Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.3#182
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#261
Pace66.7#261
Improvement+1.3#35

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#223
First Shot+1.1#133
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#300
Layup/Dunks+3.6#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#56
Freethrows+0.0#175
Improvement+0.5#85

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#158
First Shot-1.3#203
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#86
Layups/Dunks-3.1#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#338
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#20
Freethrows+0.5#160
Improvement+0.8#59
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.5% 20.0% 14.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 72.8% 81.9% 61.2%
.500 or above in Conference 82.8% 87.1% 77.4%
Conference Champion 22.7% 27.2% 17.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.6% 1.7%
First Four2.1% 1.5% 2.9%
First Round16.6% 19.3% 13.1%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Neutral) - 56.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 414 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 22   @ Texas L 45-69 6%     0 - 1 -7.8 -17.0 +8.5
  Nov 08, 2019 346   Incarnate Word W 83-61 93%     1 - 1 +4.2 +8.5 -2.1
  Nov 16, 2019 103   @ Northern Iowa L 72-77 OT 20%     1 - 2 +2.4 -2.3 +5.2
  Nov 18, 2019 46   @ West Virginia L 61-69 9%     1 - 3 +5.5 -2.0 +6.8
  Nov 26, 2019 215   Boston University W 69-67 56%    
  Dec 14, 2019 296   @ Wyoming W 62-59 62%    
  Dec 17, 2019 291   Denver W 73-64 79%    
  Dec 20, 2019 147   South Dakota L 69-71 42%    
  Dec 28, 2019 274   @ Portland St. W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 02, 2020 195   Montana St. W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 04, 2020 207   Montana W 69-65 64%    
  Jan 09, 2020 277   @ Weber St. W 72-70 55%    
  Jan 16, 2020 266   Sacramento St. W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 18, 2020 289   Northern Arizona W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 25, 2020 336   @ Idaho W 70-62 75%    
  Jan 27, 2020 204   @ Eastern Washington L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 30, 2020 310   Idaho St. W 74-63 84%    
  Feb 01, 2020 277   Weber St. W 75-67 75%    
  Feb 06, 2020 190   @ Southern Utah L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 10, 2020 274   Portland St. W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 13, 2020 289   @ Northern Arizona W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 15, 2020 266   @ Sacramento St. W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 20, 2020 190   Southern Utah W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 22, 2020 310   @ Idaho St. W 71-66 69%    
  Feb 27, 2020 336   Idaho W 73-59 88%    
  Feb 29, 2020 204   Eastern Washington W 74-70 64%    
  Mar 05, 2020 207   @ Montana L 66-68 43%    
  Mar 07, 2020 195   @ Montana St. L 69-71 41%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.8 5.7 5.1 3.2 1.4 0.4 22.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.8 6.1 4.6 2.2 0.6 0.1 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.4 3.2 1.1 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.3 1.6 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 0.9 0.1 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.0 4.5 6.4 8.2 9.9 11.2 12.7 11.6 10.5 8.0 5.7 3.3 1.4 0.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
18-2 98.1% 3.2    2.9 0.2 0.0
17-3 89.3% 5.1    4.3 0.8 0.0
16-4 70.7% 5.7    4.0 1.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 45.3% 4.8    2.2 2.0 0.5 0.1
14-6 15.7% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1
13-7 3.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.7% 22.7 15.6 5.6 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 69.0% 64.3% 4.7% 12.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 13.2%
19-1 1.4% 58.4% 58.4% 13.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6
18-2 3.3% 41.8% 41.8% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.9
17-3 5.7% 39.7% 39.7% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.0 3.5
16-4 8.0% 32.4% 32.4% 14.5 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.2 5.4
15-5 10.5% 26.2% 26.2% 14.8 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.4 7.7
14-6 11.6% 21.9% 21.9% 15.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.9 9.0
13-7 12.7% 16.4% 16.4% 15.5 0.1 0.9 1.1 10.6
12-8 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 15.7 0.0 0.4 0.9 10.0
11-9 9.9% 9.0% 9.0% 15.8 0.2 0.7 9.0
10-10 8.2% 4.1% 4.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 7.9
9-11 6.4% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.2
8-12 4.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 4.4
7-13 3.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 3.0
6-14 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-15 0.8% 0.8
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 14.8 0.1 0.4 1.8 4.0 6.3 4.9 82.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.9 32.1 49.4 18.5