Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#61
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#33
Pace64.2#304
Improvement+1.3#129

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#36
First Shot+5.0#47
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#105
Layup/Dunks-0.5#198
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#146
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#35
Freethrows+0.2#160
Improvement+3.0#41

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#108
First Shot-0.6#177
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#9
Layups/Dunks+0.7#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#279
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#254
Freethrows+1.8#67
Improvement-1.7#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 2.9% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 49.4% 51.2% 40.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.5% 21.5% 10.1%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 11.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 68.8% 73.2% 47.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.3% 8.9% 5.7%
First Round44.7% 46.2% 37.2%
Second Round15.6% 16.5% 11.0%
Sweet Sixteen4.5% 4.7% 3.2%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.3% 1.1%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 83.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 01 - 1
Quad 23 - 15 - 2
Quad 311 - 316 - 6
Quad 49 - 024 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 163   Old Dominion W 58-53 85%     1 - 0 +2.1 -10.9 +13.1
  Nov 09, 2019 173   @ Northern Illinois W 64-54 71%     2 - 0 +12.4 +1.7 +11.9
  Nov 13, 2019 233   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-55 92%     3 - 0 +5.0 -0.1 +6.8
  Nov 16, 2019 130   Northern Colorado W 77-72 OT 80%     4 - 0 +4.2 -4.2 +7.9
  Nov 19, 2019 304   Tennessee Martin W 87-67 96%     5 - 0 +8.7 +14.6 -2.8
  Nov 26, 2019 6   West Virginia L 55-60 21%     5 - 1 +11.6 -5.5 +17.0
  Nov 27, 2019 88   South Carolina W 78-72 57%     6 - 1 +12.4 +10.6 +2.0
  Dec 10, 2019 20   @ Colorado W 79-76 23%     7 - 1 +19.2 +20.6 -1.2
  Dec 12, 2019 227   @ Grand Canyon W 82-58 81%     8 - 1 +23.1 +13.0 +11.6
  Dec 22, 2019 157   Marshall W 88-80 85%     9 - 1 +5.3 +6.0 -1.4
  Dec 31, 2019 217   @ Illinois St. L 70-76 80%     9 - 2 0 - 1 -6.4 +0.7 -7.3
  Jan 04, 2020 106   Bradley W 69-64 74%     10 - 2 1 - 1 +6.7 +0.6 +6.3
  Jan 07, 2020 123   Indiana St. W 68-60 79%     11 - 2 2 - 1 +7.8 +4.8 +4.4
  Jan 11, 2020 143   @ Missouri St. W 80-57 65%     12 - 2 3 - 1 +27.3 +17.6 +11.5
  Jan 15, 2020 164   Valparaiso W 88-78 85%     13 - 2 4 - 1 +7.0 +14.8 -7.7
  Jan 18, 2020 106   @ Bradley W 86-71 53%     14 - 2 5 - 1 +22.5 +18.4 +4.3
  Jan 22, 2020 165   @ Southern Illinois L 66-68 70%     14 - 3 5 - 2 +0.8 +1.9 -1.2
  Jan 26, 2020 90   Loyola Chicago W 67-62 OT 70%     15 - 3 6 - 2 +8.0 -5.1 +12.9
  Jan 29, 2020 143   Missouri St. W 71-61 83%    
  Feb 01, 2020 266   @ Evansville W 74-63 85%    
  Feb 05, 2020 164   @ Valparaiso W 73-68 69%    
  Feb 08, 2020 146   Drake W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 12, 2020 217   Illinois St. W 75-60 91%    
  Feb 15, 2020 90   @ Loyola Chicago L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 20, 2020 123   @ Indiana St. W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 23, 2020 165   Southern Illinois W 67-56 85%    
  Feb 26, 2020 266   Evansville W 77-60 94%    
  Feb 29, 2020 146   @ Drake W 70-66 64%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.6 13.2 24.3 20.8 7.8 68.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 7.7 9.5 3.2 0.3 22.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.8 2.6 0.3 6.0 3rd
4th 0.7 1.1 0.1 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 5.4 13.0 23.0 27.6 21.1 7.8 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 7.8    7.8
15-3 98.6% 20.8    19.3 1.5
14-4 88.2% 24.3    17.4 6.6 0.4
13-5 57.3% 13.2    5.4 6.3 1.5 0.0
12-6 20.1% 2.6    0.3 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0
11-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 68.8% 68.8 50.2 15.4 2.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 7.8% 83.5% 52.0% 31.5% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.3 65.7%
15-3 21.1% 67.1% 45.9% 21.2% 10.4 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.3 4.1 6.7 1.2 6.9 39.1%
14-4 27.6% 51.7% 39.1% 12.6% 11.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 7.9 4.7 13.3 20.7%
13-5 23.0% 38.7% 32.3% 6.5% 11.6 0.2 3.4 5.3 0.1 14.1 9.5%
12-6 13.0% 29.4% 26.6% 2.9% 11.8 0.0 0.9 2.8 0.1 9.2 3.9%
11-7 5.4% 22.6% 22.6% 12.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 4.2
10-8 1.6% 26.5% 26.5% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 1.2
9-9 0.4% 17.9% 17.9% 12.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.1% 14.3% 14.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 49.4% 37.1% 12.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.5 6.4 19.9 15.5 0.4 50.6 19.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.1% 100.0% 6.3 0.3 0.3 5.4 8.7 18.3 24.8 18.2 10.3 9.1 3.1 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 77.0% 9.6 0.9 5.8 9.1 15.9 20.6 22.7 2.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4% 62.9% 9.7 2.5 6.6 14.7 21.4 16.7 1.0