Northern Iowa
Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.7#98
Expected Predictive Rating+12.8#38
Pace62.3#337
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#178
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#58
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.1% 26.7% 16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.1% 4.7% 1.4%
Average Seed 11.7 11.6 12.5
.500 or above 89.6% 91.8% 78.1%
.500 or above in Conference 81.9% 83.4% 73.9%
Conference Champion 29.9% 31.9% 19.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 2.4% 5.1%
First Four2.2% 2.4% 0.9%
First Round23.9% 25.4% 16.2%
Second Round6.3% 6.9% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 1.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 39 - 411 - 9
Quad 48 - 119 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 127   Old Dominion W 58-53 70%     1 - 0 +4.2 -7.7 +12.0
  Nov 09, 2019 170   @ Northern Illinois W 64-54 59%     2 - 0 +12.4 +0.4 +13.3
  Nov 13, 2019 213   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-55 84%     3 - 0 +6.0 +0.6 +7.1
  Nov 16, 2019 211   Northern Colorado W 68-57 84%    
  Nov 19, 2019 264   Tennessee Martin W 77-64 89%    
  Nov 26, 2019 48   West Virginia L 70-75 30%    
  Dec 10, 2019 35   @ Colorado L 60-70 18%    
  Dec 12, 2019 164   @ Grand Canyon W 67-65 56%    
  Dec 22, 2019 240   Marshall W 78-66 86%    
  Dec 31, 2019 165   @ Illinois St. W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 04, 2020 114   Bradley W 64-59 66%    
  Jan 07, 2020 151   Indiana St. W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 11, 2020 142   @ Missouri St. W 62-61 51%    
  Jan 15, 2020 181   Valparaiso W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 18, 2020 114   @ Bradley L 61-62 46%    
  Jan 22, 2020 207   @ Southern Illinois W 61-57 64%    
  Jan 26, 2020 140   Loyola Chicago W 64-58 71%    
  Jan 29, 2020 142   Missouri St. W 65-59 71%    
  Feb 01, 2020 128   @ Evansville L 65-66 49%    
  Feb 05, 2020 181   @ Valparaiso W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 08, 2020 126   Drake W 69-63 68%    
  Feb 12, 2020 165   Illinois St. W 68-60 75%    
  Feb 15, 2020 140   @ Loyola Chicago W 62-61 50%    
  Feb 20, 2020 151   @ Indiana St. W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 23, 2020 207   Southern Illinois W 64-54 81%    
  Feb 26, 2020 128   Evansville W 68-62 68%    
  Feb 29, 2020 126   @ Drake L 66-67 48%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.9 5.4 7.5 7.5 4.5 2.4 0.6 29.9 1st
2nd 0.4 3.0 6.0 5.9 2.8 0.6 0.1 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.7 5.4 3.7 0.9 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.4 2.9 0.4 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.4 0.3 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.0 2.1 0.3 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.0 0.3 5.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.2 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 3.3 4.9 6.8 8.9 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.1 10.4 8.1 4.6 2.4 0.6 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.4    2.3 0.0
16-2 98.2% 4.5    4.3 0.2
15-3 92.8% 7.5    6.5 1.0 0.0
14-4 72.4% 7.5    4.7 2.5 0.3
13-5 44.4% 5.4    2.4 2.3 0.7 0.1
12-6 16.0% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.9% 29.9 21.2 6.7 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 93.0% 62.8% 30.2% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 81.3%
17-1 2.4% 81.5% 54.7% 26.8% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 59.1%
16-2 4.6% 62.8% 47.1% 15.7% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 1.7 29.6%
15-3 8.1% 53.2% 40.4% 12.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 1.8 0.4 3.8 21.4%
14-4 10.4% 37.9% 33.4% 4.5% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.7 0.0 6.4 6.8%
13-5 12.1% 29.3% 28.2% 1.0% 12.3 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.1 0.1 8.5 1.5%
12-6 12.1% 23.8% 23.5% 0.3% 12.7 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 9.2 0.5%
11-7 11.7% 15.7% 15.6% 0.1% 12.9 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.0 9.8 0.1%
10-8 11.2% 14.2% 14.2% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 9.6
9-9 8.9% 11.6% 11.6% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.9
8-10 6.8% 5.2% 5.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.5
7-11 4.9% 2.6% 2.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.8
6-12 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
5-13 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 1.0% 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 25.1% 21.9% 3.2% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.1 4.1 9.4 5.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 74.9 4.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.0 16.7 16.7 33.3 16.7 16.7