Northwestern St.
Southland
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.7#330
Expected Predictive Rating-10.6#320
Pace76.4#35
Improvement+3.4#51

Offense
Total Offense-6.8#333
First Shot-5.8#323
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#255
Layup/Dunks-4.9#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#262
Freethrows-0.4#204
Improvement-0.4#200

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#287
First Shot-2.1#238
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#314
Layups/Dunks+1.4#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#227
Freethrows-4.1#343
Improvement+3.7#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.1% 2.5% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 31.6% 50.0% 21.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Away) - 35.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 48 - 109 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 131   @ Texas A&M L 63-77 8%     0 - 1 -9.0 -4.8 -4.3
  Nov 12, 2019 245   Rice L 74-80 39%     0 - 2 -13.8 -10.0 -3.4
  Nov 16, 2019 183   @ Tulane L 52-79 12%     0 - 3 -25.0 -24.6 +1.8
  Nov 26, 2019 274   @ Louisiana Monroe L 69-77 25%     0 - 4 -11.6 -3.9 -7.9
  Dec 03, 2019 68   @ SMU L 51-77 3%     0 - 5 -15.3 -20.6 +5.4
  Dec 08, 2019 32   @ LSU L 59-109 2%     0 - 6 -34.9 -14.8 -16.4
  Dec 18, 2019 178   @ Sam Houston St. L 79-92 12%     0 - 7 0 - 1 -10.8 +0.2 -9.8
  Dec 21, 2019 278   Lamar W 67-61 45%     1 - 7 1 - 1 -3.5 -4.9 +1.7
  Jan 02, 2020 290   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 62-67 27%     1 - 8 1 - 2 -9.4 -12.7 +3.5
  Jan 05, 2020 344   Houston Baptist W 106-79 74%     2 - 8 2 - 2 +9.6 +3.7 +2.8
  Jan 08, 2020 347   @ Incarnate Word W 72-66 65%     3 - 8 3 - 2 -8.5 -13.1 +4.2
  Jan 11, 2020 262   @ McNeese St. L 76-85 22%     3 - 9 3 - 3 -11.6 -1.1 -10.5
  Jan 15, 2020 212   @ Nicholls St. W 73-72 17%     4 - 9 4 - 3 +0.7 -7.3 +7.9
  Jan 22, 2020 138   Stephen F. Austin L 62-69 18%     4 - 10 4 - 4 -8.2 -13.4 +5.7
  Jan 25, 2020 328   SE Louisiana L 81-84 OT 60%     4 - 11 4 - 5 -16.3 -12.6 -3.1
  Jan 29, 2020 323   @ New Orleans L 73-77 35%    
  Feb 01, 2020 306   Central Arkansas W 80-79 53%    
  Feb 05, 2020 210   Abilene Christian L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 08, 2020 344   @ Houston Baptist W 92-91 53%    
  Feb 12, 2020 347   Incarnate Word W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 15, 2020 262   McNeese St. L 74-76 43%    
  Feb 19, 2020 212   Nicholls St. L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 26, 2020 138   @ Stephen F. Austin L 66-81 8%    
  Feb 29, 2020 328   @ SE Louisiana L 72-75 39%    
  Mar 04, 2020 323   New Orleans W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 07, 2020 306   @ Central Arkansas L 77-82 32%    
Projected Record 9 - 17 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.6 2.4 0.4 6.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 7.2 5.6 1.3 0.0 17.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 9.6 6.4 1.0 0.1 19.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 8.5 7.4 1.3 0.0 18.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 5.8 7.7 1.9 0.1 15.9 9th
10th 0.2 3.1 6.8 1.8 0.1 11.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 6.4 11th
12th 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.5 2.5 7.7 15.1 20.8 21.8 15.9 9.5 4.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 1.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 1.3
12-8 4.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.6
11-9 9.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.4
10-10 15.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.8
9-11 21.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 21.7
8-12 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.8
7-13 15.1% 15.1
6-14 7.7% 7.7
5-15 2.5% 2.5
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%