Northwestern St.
Southland
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-14.2#345
Expected Predictive Rating-14.6#335
Pace70.6#158
Improvement-0.5#243

Offense
Total Offense-8.6#340
First Shot-6.2#324
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#289
Layup/Dunks-7.2#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#168
Freethrows-0.2#180
Improvement-1.5#335

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#324
First Shot-5.5#316
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#188
Layups/Dunks+0.7#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#98
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#311
Freethrows-3.4#308
Improvement+1.0#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 2.0% 6.6% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 11.9% 21.1% 10.8%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 34.0% 19.8% 35.7%
First Four0.3% 0.7% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Away) - 10.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 46 - 126 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 94   @ Texas A&M L 63-77 3%     0 - 1 -5.9 -4.4 -1.5
  Nov 12, 2019 210   Rice L 74-80 20%     0 - 2 -11.5 -8.4 -2.7
  Nov 16, 2019 211   @ Tulane L 52-79 9%     0 - 3 -26.7 -25.8 +1.4
  Nov 26, 2019 237   @ Louisiana Monroe L 61-74 11%    
  Dec 03, 2019 95   @ SMU L 56-78 2%    
  Dec 08, 2019 34   @ LSU L 62-91 0.3%   
  Dec 18, 2019 185   @ Sam Houston St. L 61-77 8%    
  Dec 21, 2019 256   Lamar L 66-72 29%    
  Jan 02, 2020 300   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59-68 21%    
  Jan 05, 2020 293   Houston Baptist L 80-84 38%    
  Jan 08, 2020 346   @ Incarnate Word L 67-69 41%    
  Jan 11, 2020 301   @ McNeese St. L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 15, 2020 229   @ Nicholls St. L 63-77 11%    
  Jan 22, 2020 234   Stephen F. Austin L 72-79 27%    
  Jan 25, 2020 317   SE Louisiana L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 29, 2020 262   @ New Orleans L 64-76 15%    
  Feb 01, 2020 308   Central Arkansas L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 05, 2020 287   Abilene Christian L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 08, 2020 293   @ Houston Baptist L 77-87 20%    
  Feb 12, 2020 346   Incarnate Word W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 15, 2020 301   McNeese St. L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 19, 2020 229   Nicholls St. L 66-74 26%    
  Feb 26, 2020 234   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-82 13%    
  Feb 29, 2020 317   @ SE Louisiana L 66-73 28%    
  Mar 04, 2020 262   New Orleans L 67-73 31%    
  Mar 07, 2020 308   @ Central Arkansas L 70-78 26%    
Projected Record 6 - 20 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.1 0.2 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.6 0.6 6.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.9 3.7 1.3 0.1 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.5 4.5 1.7 0.2 10.8 10th
11th 0.3 1.9 5.1 5.3 2.7 0.3 15.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 3.5 6.5 5.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 19.7 12th
13th 1.3 4.0 6.3 6.8 4.4 1.5 0.2 24.4 13th
Total 1.3 4.1 7.4 10.5 12.8 13.3 12.2 10.9 8.8 6.9 5.2 2.9 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-4 63.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 27.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 14.3% 14.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.1% 18.2% 18.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.2% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.5% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.1 1.0
12-8 1.9% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 1.9
11-9 2.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 2.8
10-10 5.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.1
9-11 6.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.9
8-12 8.8% 8.8
7-13 10.9% 10.9
6-14 12.2% 12.2
5-15 13.3% 13.3
4-16 12.8% 12.8
3-17 10.5% 10.5
2-18 7.4% 7.4
1-19 4.1% 4.1
0-20 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%