Purdue Fort Wayne
Summit League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#257
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#264
Pace70.1#160
Improvement-2.5#281

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#249
First Shot-2.1#246
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#216
Layup/Dunks+2.9#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#116
Freethrows-3.3#343
Improvement-3.8#340

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#258
First Shot-4.2#308
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#71
Layups/Dunks-2.9#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#331
Freethrows+1.7#71
Improvement+1.4#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 3.7% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 3.3% 8.1% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 30.4% 51.3% 21.5%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 1.3% 5.9%
First Four2.2% 2.7% 2.1%
First Round1.7% 2.5% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 30.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 49 - 611 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 137   @ UNLV L 71-86 17%     0 - 1 -10.2 -2.7 -7.2
  Nov 10, 2019 331   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 78-79 59%     0 - 2 -8.9 -3.0 -5.9
  Nov 13, 2019 191   Miami (OH) L 80-84 47%     0 - 3 -8.6 -2.5 -5.8
  Nov 16, 2019 322   Stetson W 79-55 76%     1 - 3 +11.1 +6.0 +7.1
  Nov 19, 2019 105   @ Kent St. L 68-75 12%     1 - 4 +0.5 -6.7 +7.6
  Nov 22, 2019 13   @ Ohio St. L 46-85 3%     1 - 5 -21.5 -15.0 -9.0
  Nov 27, 2019 290   Niagara W 77-54 68%     2 - 5 +12.7 -2.5 +15.8
  Nov 30, 2019 221   @ Grand Canyon W 71-60 32%     3 - 5 +10.4 +6.8 +5.2
  Dec 04, 2019 220   Eastern Illinois W 74-69 53%     4 - 5 -1.3 -3.9 +2.5
  Dec 07, 2019 228   @ Illinois-Chicago L 49-62 33%     4 - 6 -14.0 -14.0 -2.4
  Dec 14, 2019 319   @ IUPUI L 65-74 55%     4 - 7 -15.8 -13.3 -2.5
  Dec 22, 2019 52   @ Iowa St. L 59-89 6%     4 - 8 -17.7 -10.1 -7.5
  Jan 01, 2020 208   South Dakota W 70-59 51%     5 - 8 1 - 0 +5.2 -11.1 +16.0
  Jan 05, 2020 233   @ North Dakota L 69-83 34%     5 - 9 1 - 1 -15.3 -4.1 -11.5
  Jan 08, 2020 330   @ Western Illinois W 77-69 59%     6 - 9 2 - 1 +0.2 -4.9 +4.8
  Jan 11, 2020 133   South Dakota St. L 61-70 32%     6 - 10 2 - 2 -9.7 -12.0 +1.8
  Jan 18, 2020 122   Oral Roberts L 68-92 30%     6 - 11 2 - 3 -24.0 -9.8 -14.0
  Jan 23, 2020 208   @ South Dakota L 71-76 30%    
  Jan 25, 2020 195   @ Nebraska Omaha L 70-76 28%    
  Jan 30, 2020 233   North Dakota W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 01, 2020 154   North Dakota St. L 67-70 38%    
  Feb 05, 2020 330   Western Illinois W 81-73 78%    
  Feb 08, 2020 329   @ Denver W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 14, 2020 154   @ North Dakota St. L 64-73 20%    
  Feb 16, 2020 133   @ South Dakota St. L 67-78 16%    
  Feb 20, 2020 195   Nebraska Omaha L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 26, 2020 329   Denver W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 29, 2020 122   @ Oral Roberts L 70-81 15%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 4.9 0.9 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 7.3 9.3 2.3 0.0 20.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 10.2 11.4 3.4 0.1 27.8 6th
7th 0.2 3.3 10.3 10.2 3.1 0.1 27.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.6 9th
Total 0.3 2.0 7.6 15.4 22.3 22.1 16.7 9.1 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 54.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 18.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.2% 15.2% 15.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.9% 13.0% 13.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.8
10-6 3.5% 6.5% 6.5% 15.8 0.1 0.2 3.3
9-7 9.1% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.0 0.5 8.6
8-8 16.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.6 16.1
7-9 22.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.5 21.6
6-10 22.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 21.9
5-11 15.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 15.2
4-12 7.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.5
3-13 2.0% 2.0
2-14 0.3% 0.3
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.5 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%