Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.5#322
Expected Predictive Rating-11.6#308
Pace69.9#174
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#274
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-7.3#345
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.7% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 6.6% 15.2% 4.4%
.500 or above in Conference 21.8% 31.7% 19.2%
Conference Champion 1.2% 2.2% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 24.6% 17.6% 26.4%
First Four1.1% 1.5% 1.0%
First Round1.1% 2.1% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Away) - 20.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 81 - 11
Quad 48 - 129 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 257   @ Drexel L 64-72 21%     0 - 1 -9.9 -10.4 +0.5
  Nov 10, 2019 69   @ Rutgers L 39-86 3%     0 - 2 -36.1 -22.9 -17.5
  Nov 13, 2019 260   @ Stephen F. Austin L 69-77 20%    
  Nov 18, 2019 256   Bryant L 75-78 40%    
  Nov 27, 2019 264   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 76-84 22%    
  Dec 01, 2019 312   @ Norfolk St. L 71-75 36%    
  Dec 08, 2019 143   Colgate L 70-79 22%    
  Dec 14, 2019 180   @ Albany L 67-79 13%    
  Dec 18, 2019 160   @ St. Bonaventure L 61-74 12%    
  Dec 21, 2019 119   @ Buffalo L 72-88 8%    
  Dec 28, 2019 59   @ Syracuse L 57-79 2%    
  Jan 03, 2020 280   Fairfield L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 05, 2020 270   Manhattan L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 10, 2020 251   @ Quinnipiac L 69-78 22%    
  Jan 12, 2020 198   @ Iona L 72-84 16%    
  Jan 17, 2020 165   Rider L 78-85 28%    
  Jan 19, 2020 197   Siena L 74-80 32%    
  Jan 24, 2020 252   @ Monmouth L 67-76 23%    
  Jan 26, 2020 331   @ St. Peter's L 63-65 42%    
  Jan 31, 2020 330   Marist W 69-65 61%    
  Feb 02, 2020 251   Quinnipiac L 72-75 40%    
  Feb 07, 2020 270   @ Manhattan L 69-77 25%    
  Feb 09, 2020 165   @ Rider L 75-88 14%    
  Feb 12, 2020 305   Canisius W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 16, 2020 252   Monmouth L 70-73 41%    
  Feb 21, 2020 280   @ Fairfield L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 23, 2020 330   @ Marist L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 27, 2020 331   St. Peter's W 66-62 61%    
  Feb 29, 2020 198   Iona L 75-81 32%    
  Mar 04, 2020 197   @ Siena L 71-83 16%    
  Mar 06, 2020 305   @ Canisius L 71-76 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 7 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.9 1.8 0.7 0.1 5.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.4 2.2 0.6 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.1 3.7 1.1 0.1 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.1 3.9 1.0 0.1 12.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.2 5.6 4.2 1.2 0.1 15.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.8 5.6 3.4 1.1 0.1 17.8 10th
11th 0.6 1.9 4.0 5.0 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.1 17.0 11th
Total 0.6 2.0 4.5 7.4 9.0 11.0 11.8 12.4 10.5 9.1 7.1 5.3 3.7 2.6 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 95.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 61.4% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-5 32.6% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 17.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
13-7 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.2% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.4% 22.7% 22.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3
15-5 0.9% 14.0% 14.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 0.7
14-6 1.6% 11.6% 11.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.4
13-7 2.6% 10.6% 10.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.4
12-8 3.7% 5.2% 5.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.5
11-9 5.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.2 5.1
10-10 7.1% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.2 7.0
9-11 9.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 9.0
8-12 10.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.4
7-13 12.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.3
6-14 11.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.8
5-15 11.0% 11.0
4-16 9.0% 9.0
3-17 7.4% 7.4
2-18 4.5% 4.5
1-19 2.0% 2.0
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%