SIU Edwardsville
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.0#328
Expected Predictive Rating-8.9#285
Pace72.3#115
Improvement+0.4#120

Offense
Total Offense-5.9#316
First Shot-2.9#271
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#308
Layup/Dunks+2.7#90
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#333
Freethrows-3.6#321
Improvement-1.0#310

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#316
First Shot-0.9#196
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#337
Layups/Dunks-2.0#245
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#7
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#181
Freethrows-4.1#329
Improvement+1.4#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 2.4% 6.2% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 9.5% 15.5% 7.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.9% 26.2% 38.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Home) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 13
Quad 47 - 98 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 63   @ Iowa L 60-87 3%     0 - 1 -15.4 -13.7 -0.5
  Nov 12, 2019 174   Valparaiso L 76-89 24%     0 - 2 -16.7 -3.3 -12.6
  Nov 16, 2019 346   @ Incarnate Word W 57-55 53%     1 - 2 -9.8 -19.0 +9.4
  Nov 18, 2019 147   @ South Dakota L 56-71 9%     1 - 3 -11.2 -15.9 +4.3
  Nov 23, 2019 155   Northern Illinois L 65-73 22%    
  Nov 26, 2019 235   @ Pacific L 62-72 17%    
  Nov 29, 2019 275   @ UC Riverside L 60-68 22%    
  Dec 04, 2019 353   Chicago St. W 83-70 88%    
  Dec 15, 2019 109   @ Northwestern L 58-75 6%    
  Dec 17, 2019 145   @ Winthrop L 65-80 9%    
  Dec 21, 2019 236   @ Detroit Mercy L 72-82 19%    
  Jan 02, 2020 54   @ Belmont L 68-91 2%    
  Jan 04, 2020 243   @ Tennessee St. L 69-79 20%    
  Jan 09, 2020 212   @ Morehead St. L 67-78 16%    
  Jan 11, 2020 264   @ Eastern Kentucky L 77-86 23%    
  Jan 16, 2020 323   Tennessee Tech W 67-64 58%    
  Jan 18, 2020 228   Jacksonville St. L 69-74 34%    
  Jan 23, 2020 295   Southeast Missouri St. L 73-74 49%    
  Jan 25, 2020 285   Tennessee Martin L 79-80 45%    
  Jan 30, 2020 227   @ Austin Peay L 70-81 18%    
  Feb 01, 2020 117   @ Murray St. L 65-82 7%    
  Feb 06, 2020 212   Morehead St. L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 08, 2020 264   Eastern Kentucky L 80-83 41%    
  Feb 13, 2020 191   @ Eastern Illinois L 66-78 14%    
  Feb 15, 2020 295   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 20, 2020 227   Austin Peay L 73-78 35%    
  Feb 22, 2020 117   Murray St. L 68-79 17%    
  Feb 27, 2020 285   @ Tennessee Martin L 76-83 27%    
  Feb 29, 2020 191   Eastern Illinois L 69-75 30%    
Projected Record 8 - 21 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.4 2.3 3.0 0.6 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.3 1.5 0.1 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.7 2.3 0.2 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.1 6.9 3.4 0.4 15.7 10th
11th 0.3 2.2 6.3 7.6 4.2 0.5 21.0 11th
12th 1.6 5.0 8.1 7.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 25.2 12th
Total 1.6 5.3 10.2 14.1 15.1 14.7 12.7 9.6 7.0 4.6 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 76.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 11.1% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 1.5% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.2% 0.2
12-6 0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.3
10-8 2.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.6
9-9 4.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.6
8-10 7.0% 7.0
7-11 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
6-12 12.7% 12.7
5-13 14.7% 14.7
4-14 15.1% 15.1
3-15 14.1% 14.1
2-16 10.2% 10.2
1-17 5.3% 5.3
0-18 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%