Winthrop
Big South
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#145
Expected Predictive Rating+6.8#87
Pace71.7#129
Improvement+0.1#174

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#163
First Shot-0.5#187
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#127
Layup/Dunks-0.6#192
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#38
Freethrows-5.5#347
Improvement-0.2#218

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#137
First Shot+1.6#124
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#223
Layups/Dunks-2.1#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#66
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#92
Freethrows-1.3#245
Improvement+0.3#126
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.0% 25.7% 17.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.0% 0.8%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 14.2
.500 or above 92.0% 92.8% 83.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 94.9% 91.6%
Conference Champion 35.6% 37.0% 21.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 2.1%
First Round24.8% 25.6% 16.2%
Second Round2.6% 2.7% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Tech (Home) - 91.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 20 - 21 - 5
Quad 32 - 34 - 8
Quad 417 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2019 298   @ Hartford W 67-57 72%     1 - 0 +4.9 -5.7 +10.9
  Nov 10, 2019 124   @ Fresno St. L 74-77 34%     1 - 1 +2.4 +8.2 -5.9
  Nov 11, 2019 36   @ St. Mary's W 61-59 11%     2 - 1 +16.5 -3.5 +20.0
  Nov 14, 2019 74   @ East Tennessee St. L 58-61 20%     2 - 2 +7.1 -4.4 +11.2
  Nov 21, 2019 319   Tennessee Tech W 72-57 91%    
  Nov 29, 2019 2   @ Duke L 65-87 2%    
  Dec 07, 2019 194   Coastal Carolina W 78-72 70%    
  Dec 11, 2019 53   @ TCU L 67-78 15%    
  Dec 14, 2019 60   @ Furman L 65-76 17%    
  Dec 17, 2019 329   SIU Edwardsville W 81-66 92%    
  Dec 21, 2019 312   Elon W 78-64 89%    
  Jan 02, 2020 238   Longwood W 78-70 77%    
  Jan 04, 2020 268   @ Campbell W 72-68 62%    
  Jan 08, 2020 326   @ High Point W 71-62 78%    
  Jan 11, 2020 187   Gardner-Webb W 73-67 70%    
  Jan 16, 2020 261   @ Hampton W 79-76 62%    
  Jan 20, 2020 131   @ Radford L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 23, 2020 341   South Carolina Upstate W 81-64 93%    
  Jan 25, 2020 333   Presbyterian W 80-64 91%    
  Jan 30, 2020 299   @ Charleston Southern W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 01, 2020 279   UNC Asheville W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 06, 2020 268   Campbell W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 08, 2020 238   @ Longwood W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 10, 2020 131   Radford W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 13, 2020 187   @ Gardner-Webb L 70-71 51%    
  Feb 15, 2020 333   @ Presbyterian W 77-67 79%    
  Feb 22, 2020 261   Hampton W 82-73 79%    
  Feb 27, 2020 341   @ South Carolina Upstate W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 29, 2020 326   High Point W 74-59 90%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.4 5.7 10.1 10.0 5.6 1.6 35.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.2 7.7 7.3 3.6 0.6 23.8 2nd
3rd 0.8 3.3 6.6 4.1 1.5 0.1 16.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 2.4 3.7 2.7 0.3 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.2 4.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.1 6.7 9.3 14.0 14.6 14.4 13.7 10.6 5.6 1.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
17-1 100.0% 5.6    5.5 0.1
16-2 94.2% 10.0    7.7 2.3
15-3 73.4% 10.1    7.3 2.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.4% 5.7    2.5 2.4 0.7 0.1
13-5 16.6% 2.4    0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.6% 35.6 25.5 8.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.6% 67.7% 67.7% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.5
17-1 5.6% 57.4% 56.3% 1.1% 12.6 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.3 0.1 2.4 2.5%
16-2 10.6% 42.2% 42.2% 13.2 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.2 0.3 6.1
15-3 13.7% 32.5% 32.5% 13.5 0.5 2.0 1.5 0.5 9.3
14-4 14.4% 31.0% 31.0% 13.7 0.1 1.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 9.9
13-5 14.6% 21.9% 21.9% 14.4 0.0 0.6 0.8 1.7 0.1 11.4
12-6 14.0% 18.6% 18.6% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.2 11.4
11-7 9.3% 7.2% 7.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 8.6
10-8 6.7% 11.2% 11.2% 15.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 5.9
9-9 4.1% 2.0% 2.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.0
8-10 2.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.7
7-11 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.0% 24.9% 0.1% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 3.1 8.5 6.5 5.2 1.2 75.0 0.1%