Winthrop
Big South
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#144
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#169
Pace78.5#21
Improvement+1.1#132

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#112
First Shot+0.3#163
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#50
Layup/Dunks-4.0#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#42
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#84
Freethrows-1.6#293
Improvement+3.4#27

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#185
First Shot-3.7#298
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#12
Layups/Dunks+1.2#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#337
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#81
Freethrows-3.4#331
Improvement-2.3#296
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.0% 40.5% 33.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 99.4% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 58.4% 82.6% 43.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.4% 1.0%
First Round35.7% 40.4% 32.8%
Second Round3.1% 4.1% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Away) - 38.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 3
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 32 - 23 - 7
Quad 418 - 421 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2019 282   @ Hartford W 67-57 70%     1 - 0 +6.0 -4.4 +10.6
  Nov 10, 2019 139   @ Fresno St. L 74-77 38%     1 - 1 +1.7 +7.0 -5.5
  Nov 11, 2019 39   @ St. Mary's W 61-59 12%     2 - 1 +16.2 -6.3 +22.6
  Nov 14, 2019 75   @ East Tennessee St. L 58-61 21%     2 - 2 +6.9 -3.1 +9.7
  Nov 21, 2019 341   Tennessee Tech L 58-61 94%     2 - 3 -19.1 -20.0 +0.8
  Nov 29, 2019 2   @ Duke L 70-83 3%     2 - 4 +10.9 +4.1 +7.7
  Dec 07, 2019 164   Coastal Carolina L 88-92 66%     2 - 5 -6.9 +4.0 -10.5
  Dec 11, 2019 67   @ TCU L 60-70 19%     2 - 6 +0.7 -7.1 +7.9
  Dec 14, 2019 90   @ Furman L 73-80 24%     2 - 7 +1.8 +1.7 +0.4
  Dec 17, 2019 336   SIU Edwardsville W 93-73 93%     3 - 7 +4.8 +7.7 -3.7
  Dec 21, 2019 307   Elon W 85-80 89%     4 - 7 -6.8 -2.9 -4.4
  Jan 02, 2020 320   Longwood W 91-67 90%     5 - 7 1 - 0 +11.3 +4.0 +4.9
  Jan 04, 2020 256   @ Campbell W 87-72 65%     6 - 7 2 - 0 +12.4 +13.1 -0.9
  Jan 08, 2020 344   @ High Point W 79-57 88%     7 - 7 3 - 0 +10.7 +0.1 +10.6
  Jan 11, 2020 229   Gardner-Webb W 99-95 3OT 79%     8 - 7 4 - 0 -2.9 -6.9 +2.8
  Jan 16, 2020 325   @ Hampton W 116-95 79%     9 - 7 5 - 0 +13.8 +15.9 -5.5
  Jan 20, 2020 141   @ Radford L 72-75 38%    
  Jan 23, 2020 310   South Carolina Upstate W 83-70 90%    
  Jan 25, 2020 326   Presbyterian W 82-68 91%    
  Jan 30, 2020 287   @ Charleston Southern W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 01, 2020 279   UNC Asheville W 86-75 85%    
  Feb 06, 2020 256   Campbell W 77-67 82%    
  Feb 08, 2020 320   @ Longwood W 79-71 78%    
  Feb 10, 2020 141   Radford W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 13, 2020 229   @ Gardner-Webb W 76-73 59%    
  Feb 15, 2020 326   @ Presbyterian W 79-70 79%    
  Feb 22, 2020 325   Hampton W 91-77 91%    
  Feb 27, 2020 310   @ South Carolina Upstate W 80-72 75%    
  Feb 29, 2020 344   High Point W 82-64 96%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 6.0 14.3 19.1 13.5 4.1 58.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.7 9.0 12.5 9.1 2.8 38.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 5.0 10.8 18.5 23.5 21.9 13.5 4.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.1    4.1
17-1 100.0% 13.5    12.8 0.7
16-2 87.4% 19.1    14.7 4.4
15-3 61.0% 14.3    8.8 5.5 0.0
14-4 32.1% 6.0    2.7 3.1 0.2
13-5 11.9% 1.3    0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 58.4% 58.4 43.4 14.5 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.1% 49.9% 49.9% 12.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.0
17-1 13.5% 46.4% 46.4% 13.6 0.3 2.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 7.2
16-2 21.9% 40.3% 40.3% 14.1 0.0 1.6 4.8 2.3 0.1 13.1
15-3 23.5% 36.3% 36.3% 14.6 0.5 3.4 4.2 0.5 15.0
14-4 18.5% 32.4% 32.4% 15.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 1.2 12.5
13-5 10.8% 25.6% 25.6% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.1 8.1
12-6 5.0% 25.0% 25.0% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.8 3.8
11-7 2.0% 16.9% 16.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.7
10-8 0.6% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.1 0.5
9-9 0.1% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.0% 36.0% 0.0% 14.3 0.1 1.2 5.7 12.5 12.6 4.0 64.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 12.5 3.5 45.3 44.3 6.7 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%