South Dakota St.
Summit League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#131
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#145
Pace68.7#204
Improvement+6.0#8

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#62
First Shot+2.0#115
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#50
Layup/Dunks+4.4#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#241
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#202
Freethrows-0.2#186
Improvement+4.6#11

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#217
First Shot-1.7#217
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#176
Layups/Dunks-1.6#241
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#179
Freethrows+1.2#111
Improvement+1.4#95
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.3% 30.8% 24.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 99.6% 100.0% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.9% 99.0%
Conference Champion 54.2% 64.6% 40.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 1.2%
First Round28.0% 30.7% 24.5%
Second Round2.5% 3.0% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 57.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 44 - 9
Quad 416 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 258   UT Rio Grande Valley W 70-57 84%     1 - 0 +4.6 -8.8 +13.0
  Nov 09, 2019 217   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 93-91 2OT 60%     2 - 0 +1.5 +1.5 -0.3
  Nov 12, 2019 62   @ USC L 66-84 20%     2 - 1 -6.8 -5.8 +0.6
  Nov 15, 2019 121   @ Nebraska L 73-90 35%     2 - 2 -11.0 -5.6 -3.5
  Nov 19, 2019 292   North Alabama W 78-73 87%     3 - 2 -5.3 +2.8 -8.1
  Nov 21, 2019 14   @ Arizona L 64-71 8%     3 - 3 +10.4 -0.3 +10.6
  Nov 24, 2019 351   Mississippi Valley W 84-54 98%     4 - 3 +7.2 +6.4 +3.2
  Nov 27, 2019 264   Samford W 86-77 85%     5 - 3 +0.2 +9.7 -9.2
  Nov 30, 2019 43   @ Indiana L 50-64 14%     5 - 4 -0.4 -14.7 +14.2
  Dec 05, 2019 236   @ Montana St. L 70-77 63%     5 - 5 -8.3 -2.9 -5.5
  Dec 10, 2019 118   @ Colorado St. L 68-72 33%     5 - 6 +2.6 -1.9 +4.5
  Dec 18, 2019 303   Florida Gulf Coast W 75-56 89%     6 - 6 +7.7 +8.7 +1.2
  Dec 21, 2019 319   Idaho W 85-57 91%     7 - 6 +15.4 +3.3 +10.5
  Dec 29, 2019 196   @ Nebraska Omaha L 78-81 56%     7 - 7 0 - 1 -2.4 +5.8 -8.3
  Jan 02, 2020 139   Oral Roberts W 96-79 63%     8 - 7 1 - 1 +15.8 +24.1 -7.4
  Jan 04, 2020 330   Western Illinois W 91-56 92%     9 - 7 2 - 1 +21.4 +5.2 +14.9
  Jan 08, 2020 328   @ Denver W 80-68 82%     10 - 7 3 - 1 +4.4 +1.5 +2.5
  Jan 11, 2020 242   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 70-61 64%     11 - 7 4 - 1 +7.3 -0.2 +8.0
  Jan 15, 2020 234   North Dakota W 87-66 81%     12 - 7 5 - 1 +13.9 +9.4 +4.5
  Jan 19, 2020 203   @ South Dakota W 76-74 57%    
  Jan 22, 2020 156   North Dakota St. W 73-69 66%    
  Jan 29, 2020 139   @ Oral Roberts L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 01, 2020 330   @ Western Illinois W 84-74 82%    
  Feb 08, 2020 196   Nebraska Omaha W 79-72 75%    
  Feb 14, 2020 328   Denver W 81-65 93%    
  Feb 16, 2020 242   Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 19, 2020 234   @ North Dakota W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 23, 2020 203   South Dakota W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 27, 2020 156   @ North Dakota St. L 70-72 44%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.4 5.2 16.1 19.5 10.5 2.6 54.2 1st
2nd 0.1 3.4 10.9 8.0 1.3 0.0 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 6.6 4.4 0.6 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.1 2.3 0.3 6.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.7 12.7 20.7 24.7 20.8 10.5 2.6 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6
14-2 99.9% 10.5    10.1 0.4
13-3 93.9% 19.5    14.9 4.4 0.2
12-4 65.3% 16.1    7.3 7.2 1.6 0.1
11-5 24.9% 5.2    0.9 2.2 1.8 0.3 0.0
10-6 2.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 54.2% 54.2 35.8 14.2 3.7 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 2.6% 48.8% 48.8% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3
14-2 10.5% 40.1% 40.1% 14.0 0.0 1.0 2.2 1.0 0.0 6.3
13-3 20.8% 35.1% 35.1% 14.5 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.3 0.3 13.5
12-4 24.7% 29.6% 29.6% 14.9 0.1 1.8 4.5 0.9 17.4
11-5 20.7% 23.0% 23.0% 15.2 0.0 0.5 2.8 1.4 15.9
10-6 12.7% 18.0% 18.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.0 10.4
9-7 5.7% 15.3% 15.3% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 4.9
8-8 1.8% 11.8% 11.8% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.6
7-9 0.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-10 0.1% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 28.3% 28.3% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 2.3 8.1 13.2 4.4 71.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 13.1 0.3 17.9 56.4 24.4 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%