USC
Pac-12
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#58
Expected Predictive Rating+13.4#27
Pace74.4#62
Improvement+1.4#131

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#75
First Shot+2.1#109
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#84
Layup/Dunks+4.5#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#307
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#254
Freethrows+2.6#24
Improvement+0.2#163

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#57
First Shot+5.0#48
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#167
Layups/Dunks+2.7#75
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#283
Freethrows+3.8#13
Improvement+1.2#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 2.8% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 4.8% 11.5% 2.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.7% 74.4% 49.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.2% 72.4% 46.7%
Average Seed 9.3 8.6 9.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.8% 94.8% 80.7%
Conference Champion 8.2% 19.2% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four12.5% 9.9% 13.2%
First Round47.4% 68.7% 41.4%
Second Round19.3% 30.5% 16.2%
Sweet Sixteen5.2% 8.5% 4.3%
Elite Eight1.8% 2.9% 1.5%
Final Four0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 21.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 27 - 210 - 9
Quad 36 - 216 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 308   Florida A&M W 77-48 96%     1 - 0 +17.2 -4.7 +19.6
  Nov 08, 2019 277   Portland W 76-65 94%     2 - 0 +1.8 +1.3 +0.7
  Nov 12, 2019 144   South Dakota St. W 84-66 83%     3 - 0 +16.4 -0.9 +15.7
  Nov 16, 2019 100   @ Nevada W 76-66 53%     4 - 0 +17.6 +5.4 +12.1
  Nov 19, 2019 147   Pepperdine W 91-84 83%     5 - 0 +5.3 +7.0 -2.2
  Nov 22, 2019 83   Temple L 61-70 68%     5 - 1 -5.3 -7.7 +2.6
  Nov 28, 2019 253   Fairfield W 54-47 89%     6 - 1 +1.8 -14.3 +16.6
  Nov 29, 2019 27   Marquette L 79-101 34%     6 - 2 -9.4 -4.0 -1.1
  Dec 01, 2019 97   Harvard W 77-62 63%     7 - 2 +20.1 +6.5 +13.7
  Dec 06, 2019 64   TCU W 80-78 52%     8 - 2 +9.8 +9.3 +0.5
  Dec 15, 2019 305   Long Beach St. W 87-76 96%     9 - 2 -0.5 +6.7 -7.5
  Dec 21, 2019 32   LSU W 70-68 37%     10 - 2 +14.0 -8.3 +22.0
  Dec 29, 2019 304   Florida Gulf Coast W 71-58 96%     11 - 2 +1.7 -4.5 +6.1
  Jan 02, 2020 122   @ Washington St. W 65-56 60%     12 - 2 1 - 0 +14.8 -4.5 +19.3
  Jan 05, 2020 46   @ Washington L 40-72 32%     12 - 3 1 - 1 -18.8 -25.7 +8.6
  Jan 11, 2020 125   @ UCLA W 74-63 61%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +16.6 +10.4 +7.4
  Jan 16, 2020 182   California W 88-56 87%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +28.3 +8.9 +17.3
  Jan 18, 2020 44   Stanford W 82-78 OT 52%     15 - 3 4 - 1 +11.8 +10.3 +1.3
  Jan 23, 2020 21   @ Oregon L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 25, 2020 74   @ Oregon St. L 72-74 43%    
  Jan 30, 2020 115   Utah W 78-70 76%    
  Feb 01, 2020 25   Colorado L 69-70 46%    
  Feb 06, 2020 11   @ Arizona L 68-78 19%    
  Feb 08, 2020 71   @ Arizona St. L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 13, 2020 46   Washington W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 15, 2020 122   Washington St. W 78-70 79%    
  Feb 20, 2020 25   @ Colorado L 66-73 25%    
  Feb 23, 2020 115   @ Utah W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 27, 2020 11   Arizona L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 29, 2020 71   Arizona St. W 76-72 64%    
  Mar 07, 2020 125   UCLA W 75-66 79%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 2.9 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.5 4.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 5.6 6.7 1.4 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.6 5.7 9.0 2.5 0.1 18.0 4th
5th 0.3 4.6 9.6 3.4 0.2 18.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 7.2 3.4 0.2 13.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.2 3.0 0.2 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.5 0.3 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.3 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.7 9.6 15.8 19.6 19.2 14.7 8.8 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 98.4% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 96.3% 1.3    1.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 73.6% 2.9    1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 32.8% 2.9    0.6 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.2% 8.2 3.6 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.4% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.9% 98.8% 13.1% 85.7% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 98.7%
13-5 8.8% 96.1% 10.6% 85.5% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.2 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.3 95.6%
12-6 14.7% 86.5% 7.9% 78.6% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.9 3.3 1.8 0.1 2.0 85.4%
11-7 19.2% 70.4% 5.6% 64.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.8 4.3 4.6 0.4 5.7 68.6%
10-8 19.6% 48.1% 3.8% 44.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 4.9 0.9 10.2 46.1%
9-9 15.8% 25.3% 1.8% 23.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.5 0.7 11.8 23.9%
8-10 9.6% 8.7% 1.5% 7.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 8.8 7.3%
7-11 4.7% 2.0% 0.6% 1.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.6 1.4%
6-12 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 54.7% 5.2% 49.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.5 4.4 6.5 10.5 11.6 14.5 2.4 45.3 52.2%