South Dakota
Summit League
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#175
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#173
Pace68.9#192
Improvement+0.9#139

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#65
First Shot+7.1#13
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#334
Layup/Dunks+2.0#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#139
Freethrows+3.0#15
Improvement+0.1#160

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#307
First Shot-4.3#312
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#197
Layups/Dunks-4.4#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#151
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#196
Freethrows-0.4#206
Improvement+0.7#135
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 14.4% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 94.9% 98.2% 87.0%
.500 or above in Conference 92.4% 97.1% 81.5%
Conference Champion 11.5% 14.6% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.7%
First Round13.1% 14.3% 10.2%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Away) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 36 - 57 - 8
Quad 411 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 162   Pacific W 72-62 47%     1 - 0 +10.1 +10.2 +1.3
  Nov 10, 2019 181   @ Hawaii W 81-75 40%     2 - 0 +8.1 +6.4 +1.5
  Nov 11, 2019 322   Florida A&M W 85-82 81%     3 - 0 -6.9 +8.5 -15.5
  Nov 15, 2019 246   Texas Southern W 88-69 76%     4 - 0 +11.2 +9.9 +1.0
  Nov 18, 2019 338   SIU Edwardsville W 71-56 90%     5 - 0 +0.4 -7.8 +8.6
  Nov 22, 2019 38   @ Arkansas L 56-77 9%     5 - 1 -6.7 -8.5 +2.0
  Nov 27, 2019 188   @ California Baptist W 84-83 42%     6 - 1 +2.5 +6.5 -4.1
  Nov 30, 2019 208   @ Northern Arizona L 72-76 48%     6 - 2 -4.0 +1.9 -6.1
  Dec 02, 2019 50   @ Washington L 55-75 11%     6 - 3 -7.2 -10.6 +4.0
  Dec 09, 2019 341   Alabama St. W 73-59 91%     7 - 3 -1.7 -3.4 +2.3
  Dec 20, 2019 130   Northern Colorado L 68-87 39%     7 - 4 -16.9 -4.2 -12.5
  Dec 22, 2019 226   UMKC L 75-78 72%     7 - 5 -9.7 +1.5 -11.3
  Dec 29, 2019 324   @ Western Illinois L 75-82 73%     7 - 6 0 - 1 -14.1 -11.2 -2.2
  Jan 01, 2020 270   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 59-70 59%     7 - 7 0 - 2 -14.0 -17.0 +3.3
  Jan 05, 2020 314   Denver W 80-78 86%     8 - 7 1 - 2 -10.1 +2.8 -12.9
  Jan 11, 2020 216   Nebraska Omaha W 91-81 71%     9 - 7 2 - 2 +3.8 +6.3 -3.2
  Jan 15, 2020 152   @ North Dakota St. L 70-72 33%     9 - 8 2 - 3 +1.8 +3.7 -2.0
  Jan 19, 2020 142   South Dakota St. W 99-84 53%     10 - 8 3 - 3 +13.5 +25.5 -11.4
  Jan 23, 2020 270   Purdue Fort Wayne W 83-60 78%     11 - 8 4 - 3 +14.1 +5.7 +8.5
  Jan 25, 2020 131   Oral Roberts W 91-80 51%     12 - 8 5 - 3 +10.2 +12.0 -2.0
  Jan 30, 2020 314   @ Denver W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 02, 2020 216   @ Nebraska Omaha L 76-77 48%    
  Feb 08, 2020 242   @ North Dakota W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 12, 2020 324   Western Illinois W 86-74 88%    
  Feb 15, 2020 131   @ Oral Roberts L 77-83 30%    
  Feb 19, 2020 152   North Dakota St. W 74-73 56%    
  Feb 23, 2020 142   @ South Dakota St. L 75-80 32%    
  Feb 29, 2020 242   North Dakota W 81-74 75%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.4 4.3 5.8 1.0 11.5 1st
2nd 0.2 5.2 9.2 1.5 16.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.4 13.3 3.2 20.9 3rd
4th 0.1 3.4 14.3 6.9 0.2 24.9 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 9.4 6.5 0.4 18.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 3.5 2.7 0.2 7.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.2 1.3 6.1 15.5 25.6 26.2 16.8 7.3 1.0 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.2
12-4 79.5% 5.8    2.4 2.8 0.6
11-5 25.6% 4.3    0.3 1.7 1.9 0.4 0.0
10-6 1.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 11.5% 11.5 3.6 4.7 2.6 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 1.0% 34.2% 34.2% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
12-4 7.3% 23.1% 23.1% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.5 5.6
11-5 16.8% 20.1% 20.1% 14.5 0.2 1.5 1.5 0.1 13.4
10-6 26.2% 13.8% 13.8% 14.8 0.1 1.0 2.2 0.4 22.5
9-7 25.6% 9.8% 9.8% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 23.1
8-8 15.5% 8.4% 8.4% 15.3 0.1 0.7 0.5 14.2
7-9 6.1% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.1 0.2 5.8
6-10 1.3% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.1 1.2
5-11 0.2% 0.2
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.1 0.9 3.9 6.4 2.1 86.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.2 13.5 55.6 27.5 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.2%