Texas St.
Sun Belt
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#134
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#158
Pace63.6#316
Improvement-1.9#261

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#168
First Shot+0.3#166
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#152
Layup/Dunks-5.3#342
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.9#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#315
Freethrows+1.3#87
Improvement+0.3#161

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#124
First Shot+1.2#125
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#139
Layups/Dunks+3.5#52
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#136
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#233
Freethrows-2.1#293
Improvement-2.2#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 15.8% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 91.6% 96.3% 85.1%
.500 or above in Conference 89.0% 95.1% 80.8%
Conference Champion 11.4% 16.5% 4.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round12.7% 15.8% 8.4%
Second Round1.7% 2.3% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Arlington (Home) - 57.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 37 - 67 - 11
Quad 410 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 164   @ Air Force L 71-78 46%     0 - 1 -3.9 -3.1 -1.0
  Nov 12, 2019 199   Prairie View W 75-48 77%     1 - 1 +21.5 +0.0 +20.8
  Nov 15, 2019 5   @ Baylor L 63-72 6%     1 - 2 +11.0 +0.6 +10.4
  Nov 18, 2019 337   Jackson St. W 73-58 93%     2 - 2 +0.7 +0.2 +1.5
  Nov 20, 2019 131   @ UNLV W 64-57 38%     3 - 2 +12.3 +1.1 +12.3
  Nov 25, 2019 210   Abilene Christian W 61-56 78%     4 - 2 -1.0 -8.4 +7.7
  Nov 30, 2019 295   Hartford W 69-55 88%     5 - 2 +3.3 -4.1 +8.1
  Dec 04, 2019 31   @ Houston L 60-68 11%     5 - 3 +7.3 -0.9 +7.5
  Dec 07, 2019 168   Texas San Antonio L 71-77 69%     5 - 4 -9.1 -1.6 -7.9
  Dec 19, 2019 140   @ Georgia Southern L 64-67 41%     5 - 5 0 - 1 +1.5 -5.0 +6.4
  Dec 21, 2019 110   @ Georgia St. L 69-81 32%     5 - 6 0 - 2 -5.0 -0.9 -4.1
  Jan 02, 2020 139   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 68-72 41%     5 - 7 0 - 3 +0.5 +1.5 -1.1
  Jan 04, 2020 207   @ Arkansas St. W 70-67 58%     6 - 7 1 - 3 +2.9 -6.9 +9.8
  Jan 06, 2020 269   Troy L 63-71 85%     6 - 8 1 - 4 -17.0 -7.6 -10.2
  Jan 09, 2020 167   Coastal Carolina W 78-66 68%     7 - 8 2 - 4 +9.1 +1.7 +7.2
  Jan 11, 2020 203   Appalachian St. W 82-57 77%     8 - 8 3 - 4 +19.3 +18.5 +4.3
  Jan 16, 2020 257   @ Louisiana Monroe W 64-63 67%     9 - 8 4 - 4 -1.5 -1.3 -0.1
  Jan 18, 2020 263   @ Louisiana W 68-59 68%     10 - 8 5 - 4 +6.3 -2.9 +9.6
  Jan 25, 2020 120   Texas Arlington W 67-65 58%    
  Jan 30, 2020 257   Louisiana Monroe W 68-58 84%    
  Feb 01, 2020 263   Louisiana W 75-64 84%    
  Feb 06, 2020 167   @ Coastal Carolina L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 08, 2020 203   @ Appalachian St. W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 13, 2020 139   Arkansas Little Rock W 67-64 63%    
  Feb 15, 2020 207   Arkansas St. W 71-63 78%    
  Feb 20, 2020 140   Georgia Southern W 71-68 63%    
  Feb 22, 2020 110   Georgia St. W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 29, 2020 120   @ Texas Arlington L 64-68 36%    
  Mar 03, 2020 177   @ South Alabama L 65-66 48%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 2.2 4.9 3.4 0.8 11.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.9 8.2 5.0 0.5 0.0 15.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 8.6 6.8 0.9 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.4 6.1 9.2 1.2 0.0 16.9 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 8.3 2.1 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.8 5.4 3.6 0.1 10.0 6th
7th 0.2 3.1 4.1 0.4 7.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.8 7.2 13.5 19.5 22.0 18.4 10.8 3.9 0.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 96.6% 0.8    0.8 0.1
15-5 87.9% 3.4    2.2 1.1 0.2
14-6 45.5% 4.9    1.5 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 11.8% 2.2    0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 4.6 3.9 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.9% 48.3% 48.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5
15-5 3.9% 37.0% 37.0% 13.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.0 2.4
14-6 10.8% 27.8% 27.8% 13.5 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.8
13-7 18.4% 19.6% 19.6% 13.8 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.0 14.8
12-8 22.0% 10.0% 10.0% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 19.8
11-9 19.5% 6.4% 6.4% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 18.3
10-10 13.5% 4.3% 4.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.9
9-11 7.2% 2.8% 2.8% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.0
8-12 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.8
7-13 0.8% 0.8
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.0 5.6 2.1 0.1 87.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.2 2.4 7.1 59.5 31.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%