Houston
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#45
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#136
Pace68.3#221
Improvement-0.5#238

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#40
First Shot-1.0#206
After Offensive Rebound+7.0#4
Layup/Dunks-2.7#267
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#44
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#212
Freethrows-0.5#206
Improvement+0.1#139

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#59
First Shot+2.3#103
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#51
Layups/Dunks+0.9#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#115
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#118
Freethrows-1.2#242
Improvement-0.6#266
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 0.7% 1.9% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 2.0% 4.7% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 6.3% 13.4% 4.3%
Top 6 Seed 12.1% 23.7% 9.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.3% 66.0% 42.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.2% 57.1% 32.1%
Average Seed 8.3 7.5 8.6
.500 or above 92.4% 97.8% 90.9%
.500 or above in Conference 86.9% 92.4% 85.3%
Conference Champion 19.4% 26.4% 17.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four8.3% 8.3% 8.3%
First Round43.4% 62.1% 38.4%
Second Round24.4% 38.3% 20.6%
Sweet Sixteen9.8% 16.6% 7.9%
Elite Eight4.2% 7.6% 3.3%
Final Four1.6% 3.0% 1.3%
Championship Game0.7% 1.4% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 21.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 5
Quad 25 - 37 - 8
Quad 38 - 215 - 10
Quad 46 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2019 324   Alabama St. W 84-56 98%     1 - 0 +14.2 +5.9 +8.4
  Nov 15, 2019 72   BYU L 71-72 74%     1 - 1 +3.1 -1.7 +4.9
  Nov 19, 2019 199   @ Rice W 97-89 83%     2 - 1 +8.7 +11.9 -4.0
  Nov 22, 2019 13   @ Oregon L 65-73 21%    
  Nov 26, 2019 296   Houston Baptist W 93-72 98%    
  Dec 04, 2019 119   Texas St. W 71-60 84%    
  Dec 08, 2019 81   @ South Carolina W 73-72 55%    
  Dec 11, 2019 109   Texas Arlington W 72-62 83%    
  Dec 15, 2019 48   Oklahoma St. W 70-66 63%    
  Dec 19, 2019 131   UTEP W 72-61 85%    
  Dec 22, 2019 228   Portland W 76-62 90%    
  Jan 03, 2020 117   Central Florida W 73-62 83%    
  Jan 07, 2020 89   @ Temple W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 11, 2020 143   @ Tulsa W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 15, 2020 93   SMU W 72-63 77%    
  Jan 18, 2020 53   @ Wichita St. L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 23, 2020 75   Connecticut W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 26, 2020 142   South Florida W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 29, 2020 238   @ East Carolina W 77-65 85%    
  Feb 01, 2020 25   @ Cincinnati L 66-71 33%    
  Feb 06, 2020 214   Tulane W 81-65 92%    
  Feb 09, 2020 53   Wichita St. W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 12, 2020 142   @ South Florida W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 15, 2020 93   @ SMU W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 19, 2020 143   Tulsa W 75-63 86%    
  Feb 22, 2020 23   @ Memphis L 75-81 31%    
  Mar 01, 2020 25   Cincinnati W 69-68 53%    
  Mar 05, 2020 75   @ Connecticut W 73-72 52%    
  Mar 08, 2020 23   Memphis W 79-78 51%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 6.0 4.7 2.1 0.5 19.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.5 6.0 2.2 0.3 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.7 4.9 1.0 0.1 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.7 3.7 0.6 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.0 3.3 0.4 0.0 10.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.8 8.5 11.0 12.7 13.7 13.6 11.4 8.3 4.9 2.1 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 2.1    2.1 0.1
16-2 94.1% 4.7    3.9 0.7 0.0
15-3 72.6% 6.0    3.6 2.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 38.1% 4.3    1.6 2.0 0.7 0.1
13-5 11.4% 1.6    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.4% 19.4 12.0 5.5 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 61.0% 39.0% 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.1% 100.0% 46.8% 53.2% 3.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.9% 98.8% 39.2% 59.6% 4.9 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.0%
15-3 8.3% 95.3% 32.3% 63.0% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.4 93.1%
14-4 11.4% 85.3% 26.3% 59.0% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 1.7 80.0%
13-5 13.6% 69.1% 20.4% 48.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 4.2 61.1%
12-6 13.7% 47.4% 14.0% 33.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 0.7 0.0 7.2 38.9%
11-7 12.7% 29.7% 9.7% 20.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 0.7 0.0 8.9 22.1%
10-8 11.0% 14.6% 6.1% 8.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 9.4 9.0%
9-9 8.5% 6.8% 4.0% 2.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.9 2.9%
8-10 5.8% 3.2% 2.6% 0.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6 0.6%
7-11 3.6% 1.8% 1.7% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.1%
6-12 2.1% 1.1% 1.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1
5-13 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 47.3% 16.1% 31.2% 8.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.9 4.7 6.0 7.4 10.2 2.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 52.7 37.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.5 65.0 22.5 7.5 5.0