Houston
American Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#34
Expected Predictive Rating+11.0#41
Pace66.6#257
Improvement+1.7#107

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#13
First Shot+2.1#110
After Offensive Rebound+5.9#1
Layup/Dunks-2.0#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#262
Freethrows+1.8#59
Improvement+0.2#163

Defense
Total Defense+3.8#80
First Shot+4.1#67
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#199
Layups/Dunks+3.9#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#69
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#196
Freethrows-1.1#247
Improvement+1.4#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 2.5% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 6.2% 11.5% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 16.3% 27.0% 9.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.2% 82.5% 63.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 63.2% 76.5% 55.1%
Average Seed 8.2 7.5 8.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 98.8% 94.7%
Conference Champion 32.9% 49.1% 22.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four8.7% 6.1% 10.5%
First Round67.2% 79.6% 58.9%
Second Round36.6% 46.7% 29.9%
Sweet Sixteen14.1% 19.0% 10.8%
Elite Eight5.8% 7.8% 4.5%
Final Four2.1% 2.8% 1.7%
Championship Game0.8% 1.2% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 40.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 27 - 410 - 8
Quad 39 - 119 - 10
Quad 45 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2019 343   Alabama St. W 84-56 99%     1 - 0 +11.5 +4.9 +6.7
  Nov 15, 2019 33   BYU L 71-72 61%     1 - 1 +7.9 -0.5 +8.5
  Nov 19, 2019 219   @ Rice W 97-89 87%     2 - 1 +7.4 +13.0 -6.4
  Nov 22, 2019 22   @ Oregon L 66-78 33%     2 - 2 +4.3 +5.5 -2.4
  Nov 26, 2019 345   Houston Baptist W 112-73 99%     3 - 2 +21.8 +11.6 +6.7
  Dec 04, 2019 136   Texas St. W 68-60 88%     4 - 2 +6.9 +0.6 +7.0
  Dec 08, 2019 96   @ South Carolina W 76-56 65%     5 - 2 +27.9 +12.3 +16.5
  Dec 11, 2019 127   Texas Arlington W 71-63 87%     6 - 2 +7.4 +4.0 +4.1
  Dec 15, 2019 68   Oklahoma St. L 55-61 74%     6 - 3 -1.0 -3.9 +1.9
  Dec 19, 2019 147   UTEP W 77-57 89%     7 - 3 +18.4 +5.7 +12.3
  Dec 22, 2019 266   Portland W 81-56 94%     8 - 3 +19.1 +7.9 +11.7
  Dec 23, 2019 79   Georgia Tech W 70-59 69%     9 - 3 +17.8 +7.7 +10.6
  Dec 25, 2019 45   Washington W 75-71 55%     10 - 3 +14.4 +13.9 +0.7
  Jan 03, 2020 108   Central Florida W 78-63 84%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +16.3 +2.7 +12.6
  Jan 07, 2020 76   @ Temple W 78-74 57%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +13.9 +17.6 -3.5
  Jan 11, 2020 106   @ Tulsa L 61-63 67%     12 - 4 2 - 1 +5.3 +1.6 +3.5
  Jan 15, 2020 83   SMU W 71-62 78%     13 - 4 3 - 1 +12.7 +4.6 +9.1
  Jan 18, 2020 38   @ Wichita St. L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 23, 2020 82   Connecticut W 73-65 78%    
  Jan 26, 2020 117   South Florida W 71-60 85%    
  Jan 29, 2020 221   @ East Carolina W 78-66 87%    
  Feb 01, 2020 47   @ Cincinnati L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 06, 2020 160   Tulane W 78-64 91%    
  Feb 09, 2020 38   Wichita St. W 70-67 63%    
  Feb 12, 2020 117   @ South Florida W 68-63 68%    
  Feb 15, 2020 83   @ SMU W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 19, 2020 106   Tulsa W 72-62 83%    
  Feb 22, 2020 28   @ Memphis L 72-75 38%    
  Mar 01, 2020 47   Cincinnati W 71-66 67%    
  Mar 05, 2020 82   @ Connecticut W 70-68 57%    
  Mar 08, 2020 28   Memphis W 75-73 59%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.9 7.9 11.0 8.0 3.3 0.6 32.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 8.9 9.3 3.1 0.3 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 7.1 7.4 1.8 0.1 17.6 3rd
4th 0.4 4.0 5.5 1.2 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 3.8 1.1 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.1 0.1 3.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.5 10.2 15.7 19.4 19.0 14.2 8.3 3.3 0.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
16-2 100.0% 3.3    3.3 0.1
15-3 96.2% 8.0    7.1 0.9 0.0
14-4 77.4% 11.0    6.8 3.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 41.7% 7.9    2.5 3.7 1.5 0.2
12-6 9.6% 1.9    0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.9% 32.9 20.4 9.1 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.3% 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% 3.8 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.3% 99.4% 35.5% 63.9% 5.4 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
14-4 14.2% 96.7% 29.1% 67.6% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.4 3.4 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.5 95.3%
13-5 19.0% 89.4% 24.9% 64.5% 8.6 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.4 3.6 4.2 3.6 1.6 0.0 2.0 85.9%
12-6 19.4% 75.2% 19.7% 55.4% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.5 4.4 3.7 0.3 4.8 69.1%
11-7 15.7% 54.9% 15.9% 38.9% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 3.8 0.5 7.1 46.3%
10-8 10.2% 35.9% 11.4% 24.5% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 0.5 6.5 27.6%
9-9 5.5% 20.0% 8.0% 12.0% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 4.4 13.0%
8-10 2.4% 6.4% 5.3% 1.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.3 1.1%
7-11 0.9% 6.1% 5.6% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.5%
6-12 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 12.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 71.2% 21.6% 49.6% 8.2 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.2 4.4 5.6 8.0 9.5 11.3 12.2 12.2 1.8 0.0 28.8 63.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.9 33.1 44.9 17.3 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.6 18.5 33.8 27.7 13.8 6.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.0 13.0 21.7 27.5 30.4 7.2