UC Davis
Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#309
Expected Predictive Rating-12.8#320
Pace65.6#286
Improvement+1.5#19

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#324
First Shot-2.5#249
After Offensive Rebound-3.7#332
Layup/Dunks+0.1#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#287
Freethrows-3.5#319
Improvement+1.4#20

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#280
First Shot-0.9#190
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#305
Layups/Dunks-1.8#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#145
Freethrows-1.9#266
Improvement+0.1#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 1.9% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.9
.500 or above 3.2% 6.4% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 17.7% 23.3% 14.7%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 34.3% 28.4% 37.4%
First Four1.0% 1.4% 0.7%
First Round0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacramento St. (Neutral) - 34.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 81 - 13
Quad 47 - 108 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 129   @ Loyola Chicago L 48-82 9%     0 - 1 -28.8 -19.3 -10.4
  Nov 14, 2019 336   Idaho W 65-64 59%     1 - 1 -11.0 -9.7 -1.2
  Nov 15, 2019 258   @ Arkansas St. L 67-80 24%     1 - 2 -15.1 -10.2 -4.5
  Nov 17, 2019 324   VMI L 84-89 2OT 54%     1 - 3 -15.6 -7.0 -7.9
  Nov 20, 2019 265   Sacramento St. L 64-68 35%    
  Nov 23, 2019 247   @ Portland L 62-70 23%    
  Nov 26, 2019 121   @ California L 60-75 8%    
  Nov 29, 2019 81   @ Utah L 62-81 4%    
  Dec 04, 2019 289   @ Northern Arizona L 67-72 31%    
  Dec 07, 2019 173   Northern Illinois L 62-68 30%    
  Dec 14, 2019 156   San Diego L 60-67 28%    
  Dec 16, 2019 169   Loyola Marymount L 60-66 30%    
  Dec 21, 2019 98   @ San Francisco L 59-76 6%    
  Dec 29, 2019 91   @ New Mexico L 66-84 6%    
  Jan 09, 2020 273   UC Riverside L 60-61 48%    
  Jan 16, 2020 252   @ Long Beach St. L 67-75 25%    
  Jan 18, 2020 291   @ Cal St. Northridge L 71-76 32%    
  Jan 22, 2020 218   Cal St. Fullerton L 65-69 38%    
  Jan 26, 2020 206   @ Hawaii L 63-73 18%    
  Jan 30, 2020 95   UC Irvine L 60-72 15%    
  Feb 01, 2020 314   Cal Poly W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 06, 2020 95   @ UC Irvine L 57-75 6%    
  Feb 08, 2020 218   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 62-72 20%    
  Feb 13, 2020 168   UC Santa Barbara L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 15, 2020 291   Cal St. Northridge W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 20, 2020 314   @ Cal Poly L 65-68 41%    
  Feb 22, 2020 168   @ UC Santa Barbara L 61-73 15%    
  Feb 29, 2020 252   Long Beach St. L 70-72 44%    
  Mar 05, 2020 206   Hawaii L 66-70 36%    
  Mar 07, 2020 273   @ UC Riverside L 57-64 29%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 3.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.5 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 6.3 3.9 0.7 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.4 7.7 4.9 0.8 0.0 17.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.8 8.4 4.9 0.6 0.0 21.3 8th
9th 1.3 4.5 7.3 6.7 3.1 0.5 0.0 23.4 9th
Total 1.3 4.5 8.8 13.1 15.1 15.6 13.6 10.4 7.7 5.0 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 96.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-3 63.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
12-4 36.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 10.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.1% 9.7% 9.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.3% 25.5% 25.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-4 0.6% 12.5% 12.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-5 1.4% 8.0% 8.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.3
10-6 2.8% 6.7% 6.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.6
9-7 5.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.8
8-8 7.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.5
7-9 10.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 10.3
6-10 13.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.4
5-11 15.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.5
4-12 15.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 15.1
3-13 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.1
2-14 8.8% 8.8
1-15 4.5% 4.5
0-16 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%