UC Davis
Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#253
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#270
Pace66.5#259
Improvement+3.1#48

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#243
First Shot+0.8#148
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#328
Layup/Dunks-3.1#294
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#159
Freethrows+0.5#136
Improvement+1.4#93

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#264
First Shot-3.9#304
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#105
Layups/Dunks-2.3#267
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#214
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#214
Freethrows-0.7#225
Improvement+1.7#80
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 4.6% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 5.6% 10.2% 2.4%
.500 or above in Conference 45.3% 62.6% 33.2%
Conference Champion 1.9% 3.4% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 10.5% 4.2% 14.9%
First Four3.2% 3.6% 3.0%
First Round2.5% 3.3% 2.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Away) - 41.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 50 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 410 - 812 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 99   @ Loyola Chicago L 48-82 12%     0 - 1 -26.3 -17.9 -9.3
  Nov 14, 2019 318   Idaho W 65-64 66%     1 - 1 -8.7 -6.0 -2.6
  Nov 15, 2019 214   @ Arkansas St. L 67-80 32%     1 - 2 -13.3 -10.0 -3.0
  Nov 17, 2019 293   VMI L 84-89 2OT 59%     1 - 3 -12.6 -7.2 -4.7
  Nov 20, 2019 201   Sacramento St. L 51-61 40%     1 - 4 -12.6 -13.9 +0.2
  Nov 23, 2019 268   @ Portland L 62-72 41%     1 - 5 -13.0 -5.5 -8.5
  Nov 26, 2019 179   @ California L 66-72 24%     1 - 6 -3.8 -0.6 -3.6
  Nov 29, 2019 106   @ Utah L 73-77 12%     1 - 7 +3.3 +7.4 -4.4
  Dec 04, 2019 245   @ Northern Arizona W 85-66 36%     2 - 7 +17.3 +14.0 +4.3
  Dec 07, 2019 188   Northern Illinois W 66-57 47%     3 - 7 +4.6 -2.1 +7.4
  Dec 14, 2019 198   San Diego L 54-58 50%     3 - 8 -9.3 -19.6 +10.3
  Dec 16, 2019 203   Loyola Marymount W 67-65 51%     4 - 8 -3.6 -3.5 +0.1
  Dec 21, 2019 104   @ San Francisco L 84-93 12%     4 - 9 -1.5 +6.5 -7.4
  Dec 29, 2019 116   @ New Mexico L 69-74 14%     4 - 10 +1.6 -5.6 +7.4
  Jan 09, 2020 254   UC Riverside L 59-65 61%     4 - 11 0 - 1 -14.2 -13.0 -1.5
  Jan 16, 2020 303   @ Long Beach St. W 85-82 51%     5 - 11 1 - 1 -2.5 +5.3 -8.0
  Jan 18, 2020 262   @ Cal St. Northridge L 74-76 41%    
  Jan 22, 2020 280   Cal St. Fullerton W 68-64 66%    
  Jan 26, 2020 181   @ Hawaii L 66-73 24%    
  Jan 30, 2020 112   UC Irvine L 65-71 29%    
  Feb 01, 2020 317   Cal Poly W 69-62 75%    
  Feb 06, 2020 112   @ UC Irvine L 62-74 13%    
  Feb 08, 2020 280   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 66-67 44%    
  Feb 13, 2020 160   UC Santa Barbara L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 15, 2020 262   Cal St. Northridge W 76-73 63%    
  Feb 20, 2020 317   @ Cal Poly W 66-65 54%    
  Feb 22, 2020 160   @ UC Santa Barbara L 62-71 22%    
  Feb 29, 2020 303   Long Beach St. W 75-69 72%    
  Mar 05, 2020 181   Hawaii L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 07, 2020 254   @ UC Riverside L 61-64 39%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.8 2.7 0.8 0.1 7.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 5.4 4.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 13.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.7 8.6 6.0 0.9 0.0 18.3 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 8.7 6.0 0.8 0.0 17.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 7.4 6.0 0.9 0.0 15.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.3 5.4 0.8 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.2 0.7 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.0 9th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.4 6.2 11.2 15.8 18.3 17.5 13.0 8.4 4.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-3 83.9% 0.4    0.2 0.1
12-4 48.4% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1
11-5 12.5% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.4% 5.7% 5.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-4 1.7% 11.2% 11.2% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5
11-5 4.1% 10.1% 10.1% 15.9 0.0 0.4 3.7
10-6 8.4% 7.3% 7.3% 16.0 0.6 7.8
9-7 13.0% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.7 12.3
8-8 17.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.8 16.8
7-9 18.3% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.6 17.7
6-10 15.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 15.5
5-11 11.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 11.0
4-12 6.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.1
3-13 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.4
2-14 0.8% 0.8
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16
Total 100% 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.7 96.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%