UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#171
Expected Predictive Rating-9.4#291
Pace63.0#328
Improvement-0.6#259

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#101
First Shot+2.7#97
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#180
Layup/Dunks+4.1#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#141
Freethrows-1.4#251
Improvement+0.2#132

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#264
First Shot-4.5#299
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#92
Layups/Dunks+0.7#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#265
Freethrows-1.2#237
Improvement-0.8#288
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.5% 23.7% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.0 14.9
.500 or above 75.8% 90.3% 73.5%
.500 or above in Conference 83.7% 91.2% 82.5%
Conference Champion 19.9% 28.4% 18.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.5% 2.1%
First Four2.8% 0.8% 3.1%
First Round16.3% 23.4% 15.2%
Second Round1.3% 2.9% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 13.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 415 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 315   Jackson St. W 83-62 87%     1 - 0 +8.0 +8.6 +0.6
  Nov 10, 2019 78   @ UCLA L 61-77 16%     1 - 1 -6.2 -1.7 -6.1
  Nov 16, 2019 203   Rice L 81-82 68%     1 - 2 -6.3 +2.7 -9.0
  Nov 20, 2019 66   @ Oregon St. L 64-76 14%    
  Nov 27, 2019 273   Portland St. W 78-70 78%    
  Nov 29, 2019 249   Grambling St. W 75-68 74%    
  Dec 03, 2019 244   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-67 54%    
  Dec 07, 2019 110   @ Texas Arlington L 63-70 27%    
  Dec 14, 2019 191   @ Southern Utah L 69-71 43%    
  Dec 16, 2019 308   @ Idaho St. W 73-67 71%    
  Dec 20, 2019 343   Southern W 74-58 92%    
  Dec 22, 2019 290   Merrimack W 70-61 80%    
  Dec 29, 2019 223   @ Louisiana L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 08, 2020 314   @ Cal Poly W 72-66 71%    
  Jan 11, 2020 252   Long Beach St. W 77-70 74%    
  Jan 19, 2020 206   @ Hawaii L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 22, 2020 294   Cal St. Northridge W 81-71 80%    
  Jan 25, 2020 275   UC Riverside W 67-59 77%    
  Jan 30, 2020 294   @ Cal St. Northridge W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 01, 2020 252   @ Long Beach St. W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 06, 2020 206   Hawaii W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 08, 2020 102   UC Irvine L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 13, 2020 310   @ UC Davis W 69-63 69%    
  Feb 20, 2020 214   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 22, 2020 310   UC Davis W 72-60 84%    
  Feb 27, 2020 275   @ UC Riverside W 64-62 59%    
  Feb 29, 2020 102   @ UC Irvine L 63-71 24%    
  Mar 05, 2020 214   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-67 67%    
  Mar 07, 2020 314   Cal Poly W 75-63 86%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.2 6.1 5.0 2.5 0.5 19.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.7 8.0 8.1 3.8 0.8 26.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 5.1 7.2 4.3 1.0 0.1 18.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.5 5.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.0 1.3 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.8 0.8 0.1 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.8 4.5 7.0 10.3 12.9 14.4 13.9 13.3 10.0 5.8 2.5 0.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
15-1 100.0% 2.5    2.3 0.2
14-2 86.2% 5.0    3.9 1.1 0.0
13-3 61.1% 6.1    3.8 2.1 0.2
12-4 31.5% 4.2    1.6 2.0 0.6 0.0
11-5 9.9% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
10-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 19.9% 19.9 12.5 6.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.5% 62.3% 62.0% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8%
15-1 2.5% 48.8% 48.8% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3
14-2 5.8% 38.7% 38.7% 13.9 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 3.5
13-3 10.0% 32.4% 32.4% 14.4 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.2 6.8
12-4 13.3% 26.3% 26.3% 14.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.7 9.8
11-5 13.9% 17.8% 17.8% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.1 11.4
10-6 14.4% 13.4% 13.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 12.5
9-7 12.9% 8.8% 8.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 11.8
8-8 10.3% 7.7% 7.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 9.5
7-9 7.0% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 6.6
6-10 4.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 4.3
5-11 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 2.7
4-12 1.4% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-13 0.5% 0.5
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.3 5.0 5.6 82.5 0.0%