UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#162
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#163
Pace62.2#334
Improvement+0.3#169

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#124
First Shot+0.3#168
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#65
Layup/Dunks-0.8#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#138
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#190
Freethrows+1.1#98
Improvement-2.4#297

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#209
First Shot-2.5#247
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#98
Layups/Dunks+0.0#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#106
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#309
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement+2.7#42
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.2% 24.9% 18.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 98.6% 99.7% 97.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 95.5% 84.6%
Conference Champion 16.3% 25.5% 9.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four1.3% 0.9% 1.7%
First Round20.6% 24.5% 17.7%
Second Round1.5% 2.2% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Away) - 42.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 34 - 44 - 6
Quad 416 - 520 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 327   Jackson St. W 83-62 90%     1 - 0 +7.7 +10.7 -1.8
  Nov 10, 2019 126   @ UCLA L 61-77 32%     1 - 1 -10.8 -5.6 -6.8
  Nov 16, 2019 219   Rice L 81-82 74%     1 - 2 -7.4 +3.9 -11.3
  Nov 20, 2019 63   @ Oregon St. L 67-78 16%     1 - 3 +0.1 -2.6 +2.6
  Nov 27, 2019 213   Portland St. W 81-70 74%     2 - 3 +4.9 +8.2 -2.4
  Nov 29, 2019 293   Grambling St. W 67-58 85%     3 - 3 -1.6 -6.9 +5.6
  Dec 03, 2019 217   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 64-60 53%     4 - 3 +3.5 +1.0 +3.2
  Dec 07, 2019 127   @ Texas Arlington W 72-68 32%     5 - 3 +9.2 +3.4 +5.9
  Dec 14, 2019 176   @ Southern Utah L 61-62 42%     5 - 4 +1.4 -3.4 +4.6
  Dec 16, 2019 313   @ Idaho St. W 74-68 OT 74%     6 - 4 -0.4 -3.4 +2.9
  Dec 20, 2019 335   Southern W 77-68 91%     7 - 4 -5.4 +10.5 -14.4
  Dec 22, 2019 282   Merrimack W 68-50 83%     8 - 4 +8.4 -3.6 +13.2
  Dec 29, 2019 256   @ Louisiana W 85-77 61%     9 - 4 +5.5 +7.2 -2.0
  Jan 08, 2020 316   @ Cal Poly W 63-45 75%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +11.4 +2.3 +12.8
  Jan 11, 2020 302   Long Beach St. L 52-55 86%     10 - 5 1 - 1 -14.3 -19.4 +4.6
  Jan 19, 2020 180   @ Hawaii L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 22, 2020 262   Cal St. Northridge W 78-69 81%    
  Jan 25, 2020 253   UC Riverside W 66-57 79%    
  Jan 30, 2020 262   @ Cal St. Northridge W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 01, 2020 302   @ Long Beach St. W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 06, 2020 180   Hawaii W 71-67 65%    
  Feb 08, 2020 112   UC Irvine L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 13, 2020 255   @ UC Davis W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 20, 2020 281   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 67-63 65%    
  Feb 22, 2020 255   UC Davis W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 27, 2020 253   @ UC Riverside W 63-60 60%    
  Feb 29, 2020 112   @ UC Irvine L 64-70 27%    
  Mar 05, 2020 281   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-60 83%    
  Mar 07, 2020 316   Cal Poly W 71-58 88%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 10 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.9 5.4 3.1 0.6 16.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 7.3 12.0 8.4 2.3 0.1 31.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 8.6 9.9 4.5 0.6 0.0 25.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 5.5 4.9 1.1 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 3.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.9 6.3 11.2 15.6 18.5 18.5 13.9 7.7 3.2 0.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
14-2 95.8% 3.1    2.7 0.4
13-3 70.4% 5.4    3.3 2.0 0.1
12-4 35.1% 4.9    2.0 2.5 0.4 0.0
11-5 10.8% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1
10-6 1.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 16.3% 16.3 9.0 5.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.6% 45.6% 45.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3
14-2 3.2% 38.7% 38.7% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 2.0
13-3 7.7% 33.2% 33.2% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 5.2
12-4 13.9% 29.6% 29.6% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.0 0.1 9.8
11-5 18.5% 24.1% 24.1% 14.9 0.1 1.0 2.7 0.6 14.0
10-6 18.5% 19.0% 19.0% 15.2 0.0 0.3 2.1 1.1 15.0
9-7 15.6% 16.6% 16.6% 15.4 0.1 1.3 1.1 13.0
8-8 11.2% 13.4% 13.4% 15.6 0.0 0.5 1.0 9.7
7-9 6.3% 9.8% 9.8% 15.9 0.1 0.5 5.7
6-10 2.9% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.6
5-11 1.1% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
4-12 0.4% 0.4
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 21.2% 21.2% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.1 9.4 4.8 78.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.6 3.4 36.6 55.2 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%