TCU
Big 12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#100
Expected Predictive Rating+10.1#61
Pace65.4#280
Improvement-4.6#341

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#106
First Shot+3.0#91
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#201
Layup/Dunks+5.5#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#161
Freethrows-0.7#220
Improvement-2.5#322

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#117
First Shot+1.0#143
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#95
Layups/Dunks-4.5#305
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#93
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#92
Freethrows+2.1#55
Improvement-2.1#298
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 11.4% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.7% 11.3% 3.1%
Average Seed 10.8 10.8 10.8
.500 or above 38.2% 64.2% 31.5%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 2.1% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.4% 3.2% 8.4%
First Four2.2% 5.3% 1.4%
First Round3.5% 7.8% 2.4%
Second Round0.8% 1.6% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas (Home) - 20.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 10
Quad 22 - 34 - 12
Quad 33 - 17 - 13
Quad 45 - 012 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 330   Houston Baptist W 69-45 95%     1 - 0 +9.5 -8.2 +19.8
  Nov 28, 2020 86   Tulsa W 70-65 44%     2 - 0 +11.5 +10.4 +1.6
  Nov 29, 2020 119   Liberty W 56-52 54%     3 - 0 +7.7 -9.7 +17.8
  Dec 03, 2020 318   Northwestern St. W 74-68 94%     4 - 0 -6.8 -9.3 +2.3
  Dec 06, 2020 21   Oklahoma L 78-82 25%     4 - 1 0 - 1 +8.0 +14.9 -7.2
  Dec 09, 2020 53   Providence L 70-79 36%     4 - 2 -0.4 +5.3 -6.4
  Dec 12, 2020 122   Texas A&M W 73-55 55%     5 - 2 +21.4 +7.5 +14.7
  Dec 16, 2020 33   @ Oklahoma St. W 77-76 19%     6 - 2 1 - 1 +15.0 +5.2 +9.7
  Dec 22, 2020 158   North Dakota St. W 89-82 73%     7 - 2 +5.4 +10.0 -5.0
  Dec 30, 2020 258   Prairie View W 66-61 88%     8 - 2 -2.9 -10.7 +7.7
  Jan 02, 2021 151   @ Kansas St. W 67-60 58%     9 - 2 2 - 1 +9.7 +2.8 +7.6
  Jan 05, 2021 14   Kansas L 64-93 20%     9 - 3 2 - 2 -15.3 +2.0 -19.3
  Jan 09, 2021 2   Baylor L 49-67 7%     9 - 4 2 - 3 +2.9 -10.3 +11.8
  Jan 12, 2021 21   @ Oklahoma L 46-82 16%     9 - 5 2 - 4 -20.4 -16.9 -5.7
  Jan 23, 2021 10   Texas L 64-74 20%    
  Jan 26, 2021 14   @ Kansas L 62-74 10%    
  Jan 30, 2021 38   @ Missouri L 63-72 18%    
  Feb 03, 2021 33   Oklahoma St. L 67-73 35%    
  Feb 06, 2021 2   @ Baylor L 60-80 3%    
  Feb 09, 2021 111   Iowa St. W 72-70 63%    
  Feb 13, 2021 10   @ Texas L 62-76 8%    
  Feb 17, 2021 16   @ Texas Tech L 60-72 11%    
  Feb 20, 2021 151   Kansas St. W 69-63 74%    
  Feb 22, 2021 17   West Virginia L 66-74 26%    
  Feb 27, 2021 111   @ Iowa St. L 70-71 42%    
Projected Record 12 - 13 5 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.4 1.1 0.2 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 3.1 1.3 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.7 7.4 4.6 0.5 15.5 7th
8th 0.2 7.1 21.6 22.9 11.0 1.5 0.0 64.4 8th
9th 0.9 4.8 3.4 0.0 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 1.7 0.9 0.2 2.7 10th
Total 2.8 12.8 25.6 25.6 19.7 9.6 3.2 0.6 0.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.2% 100.0% 100.0% 7.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.6% 93.5% 93.5% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 93.5%
8-10 3.2% 52.6% 52.6% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 52.6%
7-11 9.6% 18.2% 0.0% 18.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 7.9 18.1%
6-12 19.7% 4.1% 1.0% 3.1% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 18.9 3.2%
5-13 25.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 25.5 0.0%
4-14 25.6% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 25.5
3-15 12.8% 12.8
2-16 2.8% 2.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.0% 0.3% 4.7% 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.7 0.4 0.2 95.0 4.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%