Purdue
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#27
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#35
Pace65.2#285
Improvement+2.2#55

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#47
First Shot+5.1#49
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#118
Layup/Dunks+3.0#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#75
Freethrows+0.7#132
Improvement-0.5#204

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#23
First Shot+5.2#37
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#76
Layups/Dunks+4.0#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#198
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#184
Freethrows+1.7#79
Improvement+2.7#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.2% 4.8% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 15.8% 27.9% 10.3%
Top 6 Seed 43.5% 61.3% 35.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.2% 93.6% 78.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.6% 93.3% 77.8%
Average Seed 6.7 5.9 7.2
.500 or above 94.2% 98.5% 92.2%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 90.6% 73.0%
Conference Champion 2.9% 6.5% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.7% 3.2% 5.4%
First Round81.0% 92.1% 75.9%
Second Round50.8% 60.4% 46.3%
Sweet Sixteen21.1% 28.0% 17.8%
Elite Eight7.8% 11.1% 6.3%
Final Four2.8% 4.3% 2.1%
Championship Game1.1% 1.7% 0.8%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 31.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 24 - 210 - 10
Quad 34 - 114 - 11
Quad 42 - 017 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 119   Liberty W 77-64 81%     1 - 0 +16.7 +9.1 +8.0
  Nov 26, 2020 37   Clemson L 70-81 55%     1 - 1 +0.5 +2.1 -1.1
  Dec 01, 2020 251   Oakland W 93-50 96%     2 - 1 +35.5 +23.2 +16.0
  Dec 04, 2020 198   Valparaiso W 68-61 94%     3 - 1 +2.6 -4.6 +7.4
  Dec 08, 2020 79   @ Miami (FL) L 54-58 66%     3 - 2 +4.7 -10.7 +15.2
  Dec 12, 2020 132   Indiana St. W 80-68 87%     4 - 2 +12.7 +6.9 +5.6
  Dec 16, 2020 19   Ohio St. W 67-60 49%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +20.1 +0.7 +19.8
  Dec 19, 2020 83   Notre Dame W 88-78 72%     6 - 2 +16.9 +17.4 -0.2
  Dec 22, 2020 3   @ Iowa L 55-70 20%     6 - 3 1 - 1 +6.8 -8.4 +13.9
  Dec 25, 2020 50   Maryland W 73-70 65%     7 - 3 2 - 1 +12.1 +7.5 +4.8
  Dec 29, 2020 41   @ Rutgers L 76-81 49%     7 - 4 2 - 2 +8.0 +17.3 -9.8
  Jan 02, 2021 9   @ Illinois L 58-66 29%     7 - 5 2 - 3 +10.5 -6.6 +17.1
  Jan 08, 2021 38   @ Michigan St. W 55-54 49%     8 - 5 3 - 3 +14.1 -3.6 +17.8
  Jan 14, 2021 30   @ Indiana W 81-69 46%     9 - 5 4 - 3 +26.0 +15.6 +10.4
  Jan 17, 2021 53   Penn St. W 80-72 67%     10 - 5 5 - 3 +16.4 +4.7 +11.3
  Jan 19, 2021 19   @ Ohio St. L 67-71 31%    
  Jan 22, 2021 7   Michigan L 67-70 45%    
  Jan 30, 2021 23   Minnesota W 71-70 59%    
  Feb 02, 2021 50   @ Maryland W 69-68 46%    
  Feb 06, 2021 73   Northwestern W 73-66 77%    
  Feb 11, 2021 23   @ Minnesota L 70-72 37%    
  Feb 16, 2021 38   Michigan St. W 71-68 67%    
  Feb 20, 2021 124   @ Nebraska W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 26, 2021 53   @ Penn St. W 72-71 49%    
  Mar 02, 2021 12   Wisconsin L 63-65 48%    
  Mar 06, 2021 30   Indiana W 68-66 62%    
Projected Record 16 - 10 11 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 2.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.6 3.3 0.7 0.1 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.8 5.9 1.2 0.1 12.6 3rd
4th 0.4 4.0 8.0 2.2 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 2.5 8.9 4.0 0.3 15.8 5th
6th 0.9 6.8 6.3 0.7 14.8 6th
7th 0.3 3.9 6.8 1.4 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 5.4 1.8 0.2 8.9 8th
9th 0.2 2.3 2.1 0.3 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.3 2.7 10th
11th 0.2 0.6 0.3 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.0 12.6 18.7 21.4 18.1 12.3 6.0 1.8 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 69.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-5 57.2% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1
14-6 22.1% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.3% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
15-5 1.8% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 2.5 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 100.0%
14-6 6.0% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 3.5 0.1 0.7 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.2 100.0%
13-7 12.3% 100.0% 8.2% 91.8% 4.6 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.6 4.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-8 18.1% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 5.7 0.0 0.6 1.6 5.3 6.2 3.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-9 21.4% 97.8% 2.9% 94.9% 7.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 5.2 5.7 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.5 97.7%
10-10 18.7% 88.8% 1.6% 87.2% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.5 1.1 0.1 2.1 88.6%
9-11 12.6% 52.3% 1.4% 50.9% 10.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.7 1.7 0.8 0.1 6.0 51.6%
8-12 6.0% 10.5% 0.3% 10.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.4 10.3%
7-13 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 1.8%
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 83.2% 3.7% 79.5% 6.7 0.4 1.8 5.8 7.9 13.0 14.6 11.8 8.6 6.1 4.4 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.1 16.8 82.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.3 67.2 32.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.8 40.8 39.8 19.4
Lose Out 0.1%