Radford
Big South
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.0#243
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#250
Pace61.3#336
Improvement+1.9#67

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#262
First Shot-4.1#278
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#137
Layup/Dunks-1.3#225
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#226
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#273
Freethrows+1.3#102
Improvement+4.2#7

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#217
First Shot-2.5#251
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#118
Layups/Dunks+3.1#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#278
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#332
Freethrows+1.8#77
Improvement-2.3#304
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.5% 10.6% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 58.5% 78.1% 47.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.8% 97.6% 84.0%
Conference Champion 2.7% 5.4% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.5% 5.5% 5.5%
First Round5.7% 7.7% 4.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Away) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 31 - 52 - 9
Quad 411 - 313 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 38   @ Virginia Tech L 62-77 6%     0 - 1 -1.9 -2.2 -0.2
  Nov 28, 2020 239   Norfolk St. L 54-57 49%     0 - 2 -7.7 -18.7 +10.8
  Nov 29, 2020 207   @ James Madison L 59-67 36%     0 - 3 -9.4 -14.7 +5.1
  Dec 05, 2020 141   @ East Carolina L 50-63 22%     0 - 4 -9.8 -11.5 -0.2
  Dec 14, 2020 304   Longwood W 67-66 71%     1 - 4 1 - 0 -9.6 -0.6 -8.9
  Dec 15, 2020 304   Longwood W 62-53 71%     2 - 4 2 - 0 -1.6 -11.0 +10.0
  Dec 19, 2020 136   @ Vanderbilt L 50-59 21%     2 - 5 -5.3 -17.8 +11.5
  Dec 30, 2020 339   @ Presbyterian W 71-65 77%     3 - 5 3 - 0 -6.9 +2.6 -8.7
  Dec 31, 2020 339   @ Presbyterian L 63-65 77%     3 - 6 3 - 1 -14.9 -8.7 -6.4
  Jan 04, 2021 311   Hampton W 79-66 73%     4 - 6 4 - 1 +1.5 +1.3 +0.4
  Jan 05, 2021 311   Hampton W 76-65 73%     5 - 6 5 - 1 -0.5 +3.4 -3.0
  Jan 09, 2021 336   @ Charleston Southern W 79-64 74%     6 - 6 6 - 1 +3.1 +4.3 -0.9
  Jan 10, 2021 336   @ Charleston Southern W 68-48 74%     7 - 6 7 - 1 +8.1 -5.8 +14.7
  Jan 24, 2021 221   @ UNC Asheville L 67-70 35%    
  Jan 25, 2021 221   @ UNC Asheville L 67-70 36%    
  Jan 29, 2021 318   South Carolina Upstate W 70-63 79%    
  Jan 30, 2021 318   South Carolina Upstate W 70-63 79%    
  Feb 04, 2021 270   @ Campbell L 63-64 45%    
  Feb 05, 2021 270   @ Campbell L 63-64 45%    
  Feb 11, 2021 109   Winthrop L 68-76 28%    
  Feb 12, 2021 109   Winthrop L 68-76 28%    
  Feb 18, 2021 278   @ High Point W 64-63 46%    
  Feb 19, 2021 278   @ High Point W 64-63 47%    
Projected Record 12 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.2 2.7 1st
2nd 0.6 6.1 14.9 15.3 9.1 3.2 0.2 49.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.7 10.9 6.1 1.1 0.1 23.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.4 7.4 3.7 0.3 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.5 4.3 2.2 0.1 7.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.1 2.9 6th
7th 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.4 2.5 8.3 15.0 20.8 21.4 16.4 9.5 4.3 1.2 0.2 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-4 79.7% 1.0    0.3 0.6
15-5 24.8% 1.1    0.2 0.8 0.0
14-6 4.2% 0.4    0.1 0.3 0.1
13-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 0.8 1.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 29.7% 29.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 1.2% 23.7% 23.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9
15-5 4.3% 18.3% 18.3% 15.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 3.5
14-6 9.5% 14.4% 14.4% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 8.2
13-7 16.4% 11.4% 11.4% 15.9 0.1 1.7 14.5
12-8 21.4% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8 19.5
11-9 20.8% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 1.4 19.4
10-10 15.0% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.6 14.4
9-11 8.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.3 8.1
8-12 2.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.5
7-13 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 7.3 91.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%