Winthrop
Big South
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#112
Expected Predictive Rating+13.3#37
Pace84.0#5
Improvement-2.4#296

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#104
First Shot+2.8#105
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#183
Layup/Dunks-1.9#240
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#46
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#131
Freethrows+0.7#133
Improvement-2.4#314

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#130
First Shot-0.3#185
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#53
Layups/Dunks+4.4#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#140
Freethrows-1.0#235
Improvement+0.0#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.3% 64.0% 49.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.2% 6.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.2 12.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 97.8% 98.1% 92.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% 2.4% 0.0%
First Round61.7% 62.4% 49.7%
Second Round10.0% 10.2% 5.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.0% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Home) - 95.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 01 - 0
Quad 34 - 15 - 1
Quad 418 - 122 - 1


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 01, 2020 120   UNC Greensboro W 75-67 52%     1 - 0 +11.6 -3.3 +13.9
  Dec 03, 2020 155   Arkansas Little Rock W 80-75 64%     2 - 0 +5.4 +2.2 +3.0
  Dec 12, 2020 316   @ South Carolina Upstate W 95-77 88%     3 - 0 1 - 0 +9.2 +8.5 -1.0
  Dec 13, 2020 316   @ South Carolina Upstate W 107-77 88%     4 - 0 2 - 0 +21.2 +20.8 -2.0
  Dec 19, 2020 87   Furman W 87-71 48%     5 - 0 +20.6 -0.5 +18.4
  Dec 30, 2020 274   Campbell W 84-83 88%     6 - 0 3 - 0 -7.8 -5.0 -2.9
  Dec 31, 2020 274   Campbell W 94-76 88%     7 - 0 4 - 0 +9.2 +6.4 +0.9
  Jan 04, 2021 337   @ Charleston Southern W 85-69 92%     8 - 0 5 - 0 +4.1 +2.6 +0.4
  Jan 05, 2021 337   @ Charleston Southern W 78-76 92%     9 - 0 6 - 0 -9.9 -2.2 -7.7
  Jan 09, 2021 199   Gardner-Webb W 75-65 80%     10 - 0 7 - 0 +5.4 -11.6 +15.6
  Jan 10, 2021 199   Gardner-Webb W 91-83 80%     11 - 0 8 - 0 +3.4 +3.4 -1.0
  Jan 14, 2021 285   Longwood W 72-61 89%     12 - 0 9 - 0 +1.7 -5.0 +6.7
  Jan 15, 2021 285   Longwood W 70-50 89%     13 - 0 10 - 0 +10.7 -3.5 +15.2
  Jan 19, 2021 340   @ Presbyterian W 72-58 93%     14 - 0 11 - 0 +1.6 -4.8 +6.6
  Jan 20, 2021 340   @ Presbyterian W 78-66 93%     15 - 0 12 - 0 -0.4 +1.6 -1.8
  Jan 24, 2021 310   Hampton W 89-73 95%    
  Jan 25, 2021 310   Hampton W 89-73 94%    
  Jan 28, 2021 236   UNC Asheville W 88-77 87%    
  Jan 29, 2021 236   UNC Asheville W 88-77 87%    
  Feb 11, 2021 225   @ Radford W 75-69 67%    
  Feb 12, 2021 225   @ Radford W 75-69 68%    
Projected Record 20 - 1 17 - 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 4.8 20.0 39.6 33.1 97.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.6 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 6.0 20.6 39.6 33.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 33.1    33.1
17-3 100.0% 39.6    39.6
16-4 97.2% 20.0    17.2 2.8
15-5 81.2% 4.8    3.1 1.8
14-6 50.1% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 97.8% 97.8 93.0 4.8 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 33.1% 72.0% 66.9% 5.1% 11.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.9 6.1 10.0 3.2 0.1 9.3 15.3%
17-3 39.6% 61.2% 59.6% 1.7% 12.5 0.2 1.2 10.3 11.6 1.0 15.4 4.1%
16-4 20.6% 57.8% 57.4% 0.4% 12.8 0.2 3.2 6.8 1.7 8.7 0.9%
15-5 6.0% 51.3% 51.3% 13.1 0.4 1.8 0.8 0.0 2.9
14-6 0.7% 33.6% 33.6% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-7 0.1% 67.0% 67.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 63.3% 60.9% 2.4% 12.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.0 7.5 23.9 23.5 3.6 0.1 36.7 6.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 22.1% 100.0% 11.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 5.7 12.8 26.5 40.4 12.8 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.4% 14.5% 12.3 0.0 1.0 8.9 3.7 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.0% 16.6% 11.9 1.0 2.9 9.8 2.9