Longwood
Big South
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.6#298
Expected Predictive Rating-12.6#315
Pace64.9#290
Improvement-0.4#218

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#287
First Shot-1.9#221
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#292
Layup/Dunks-0.2#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#211
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#217
Freethrows+0.3#157
Improvement+0.6#119

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#296
First Shot-3.2#278
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#235
Layups/Dunks-2.4#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#152
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#177
Freethrows-1.0#236
Improvement-1.0#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 3.8% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 8.2% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 4.2% 18.6% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 1.4% 7.1%
First Four1.6% 3.3% 1.5%
First Round0.8% 2.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Away) - 7.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 48 - 99 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 113   @ Wake Forest L 60-71 10%     0 - 1 -5.3 -11.1 +5.5
  Dec 01, 2020 222   @ VMI L 71-84 28%     0 - 2 -15.6 -11.8 -2.5
  Dec 08, 2020 318   N.C. A&T W 77-60 63%     1 - 2 +5.0 -1.0 +6.2
  Dec 14, 2020 243   @ Radford L 66-67 31%     1 - 3 0 - 1 -4.5 +2.1 -6.8
  Dec 15, 2020 243   @ Radford L 53-62 31%     1 - 4 0 - 2 -12.5 -16.8 +3.6
  Dec 19, 2020 262   The Citadel L 89-91 46%     1 - 5 -9.6 -1.4 -7.9
  Dec 21, 2020 38   @ Virginia Tech L 58-84 3%     1 - 6 -12.9 -5.1 -9.3
  Dec 30, 2020 217   UNC Asheville L 73-80 37%     1 - 7 0 - 3 -12.3 -0.4 -12.2
  Dec 31, 2020 217   UNC Asheville W 65-55 37%     2 - 7 1 - 3 +4.7 -8.6 +13.7
  Jan 04, 2021 310   @ South Carolina Upstate L 69-71 48%     2 - 8 1 - 4 -10.2 +0.4 -10.8
  Jan 05, 2021 310   @ South Carolina Upstate L 59-65 48%     2 - 9 1 - 5 -14.2 -13.1 -1.6
  Jan 09, 2021 277   Campbell L 58-64 51%     2 - 10 1 - 6 -14.8 -16.0 +0.8
  Jan 10, 2021 277   Campbell W 78-69 51%     3 - 10 2 - 6 +0.2 +12.9 -11.3
  Jan 14, 2021 112   @ Winthrop L 61-72 10%     3 - 11 2 - 7 -5.3 -10.0 +4.8
  Jan 15, 2021 112   @ Winthrop L 69-83 7%    
  Jan 19, 2021 274   High Point L 66-67 56%    
  Jan 20, 2021 274   High Point L 66-67 56%    
  Jan 29, 2021 340   @ Presbyterian W 67-63 58%    
  Jan 30, 2021 340   @ Presbyterian W 67-63 58%    
  Feb 04, 2021 317   Hampton W 72-69 66%    
  Feb 05, 2021 317   Hampton W 72-69 67%    
  Feb 11, 2021 341   @ Charleston Southern W 67-63 59%    
  Feb 12, 2021 341   @ Charleston Southern W 67-63 59%    
Projected Record 8 - 15 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.1 1.4 3rd
4th 0.4 3.0 2.2 0.1 5.7 4th
5th 0.2 3.9 5.8 0.6 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 8.6 2.4 0.0 14.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 10.1 6.1 0.2 18.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 8.8 8.4 0.9 19.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 6.5 8.2 1.8 0.0 17.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.6 4.3 0.8 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.5 11th
Total 0.3 1.9 5.7 12.7 20.0 23.5 19.8 11.8 4.0 0.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.3% 10.0% 10.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-10 4.0% 5.4% 5.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.7
9-11 11.8% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.5 11.3
8-12 19.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.4 19.4
7-13 23.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 23.3
6-14 20.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 19.8
5-15 12.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.6
4-16 5.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.7
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 15.9 7.1 92.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.2%