Gardner-Webb
Big South
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#220
Expected Predictive Rating-7.6#270
Pace70.0#179
Improvement-2.0#295

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#194
First Shot+2.6#110
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#326
Layup/Dunks+0.7#145
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#63
Freethrows-0.3#198
Improvement-1.4#275

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#264
First Shot-2.8#263
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#192
Layups/Dunks+4.7#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#277
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#293
Freethrows-2.5#308
Improvement-0.7#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 8.4% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 39.6% 52.4% 20.4%
.500 or above in Conference 7.7% 12.9% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.6% 2.8%
First Four3.5% 3.4% 3.6%
First Round5.5% 6.8% 3.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 59.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 10 - 7
Quad 49 - 510 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 10, 2020 91   @ Western Kentucky L 84-86 14%     0 - 1 +5.3 +9.0 -3.5
  Dec 12, 2020 73   @ Pittsburgh L 50-67 11%     0 - 2 -7.7 -19.3 +13.0
  Dec 15, 2020 147   @ East Tennessee St. L 60-65 25%     0 - 3 -2.1 -6.1 +3.8
  Dec 18, 2020 222   VMI W 88-77 57%     1 - 3 +5.2 +13.9 -8.3
  Dec 21, 2020 22   @ Florida St. L 59-72 4%     1 - 4 +3.0 -11.0 +14.6
  Dec 30, 2020 317   @ Hampton L 69-80 68%     1 - 5 0 - 1 -19.8 -12.8 -6.3
  Dec 31, 2020 317   @ Hampton W 80-69 68%     2 - 5 1 - 1 +2.2 +5.4 -2.9
  Jan 04, 2021 277   Campbell L 61-70 68%     2 - 6 1 - 2 -17.8 -10.4 -8.4
  Jan 05, 2021 277   Campbell W 85-70 68%     3 - 6 2 - 2 +6.2 +11.7 -4.8
  Jan 09, 2021 112   @ Winthrop L 65-75 18%     3 - 7 2 - 3 -4.3 -14.5 +11.6
  Jan 10, 2021 112   @ Winthrop L 83-91 18%     3 - 8 2 - 4 -2.3 +2.1 -3.4
  Jan 19, 2021 217   UNC Asheville W 76-75 60%    
  Jan 20, 2021 217   UNC Asheville W 76-75 60%    
  Jan 24, 2021 310   @ South Carolina Upstate W 74-70 60%    
  Jan 25, 2021 310   @ South Carolina Upstate W 74-70 60%    
  Jan 29, 2021 341   Charleston Southern W 75-63 89%    
  Jan 30, 2021 341   Charleston Southern W 75-63 88%    
  Feb 11, 2021 274   High Point W 73-68 71%    
  Feb 12, 2021 274   High Point W 73-68 70%    
Projected Record 9 - 10 8 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.0 3rd
4th 0.4 5.2 3.7 9.3 4th
5th 0.3 5.6 10.0 1.2 17.2 5th
6th 0.1 3.8 12.0 4.1 0.0 20.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 10.1 7.4 0.3 19.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 6.4 7.9 0.9 16.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.5 1.3 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.4 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.9 6.0 14.2 23.4 26.4 20.1 7.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 7.7% 14.9% 14.9% 14.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 6.6
9-11 20.1% 11.3% 11.3% 15.6 0.0 0.8 1.4 17.8
8-12 26.4% 7.9% 7.9% 15.9 0.2 1.9 24.3
7-13 23.4% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1 22.2
6-14 14.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.5 13.7
5-15 6.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.9
4-16 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.4 1.7 5.1 92.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 14.8 0.9 34.4 51.4 13.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4%
Lose Out 0.0%