Tulsa
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.5#87
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#62
Pace64.7#293
Improvement+1.0#105

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#147
First Shot+0.9#157
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#191
Layup/Dunks+4.4#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#279
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#190
Freethrows-0.7#220
Improvement+0.4#134

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#39
First Shot+6.7#19
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#230
Layups/Dunks+6.7#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#248
Freethrows+0.9#134
Improvement+0.6#133
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 19.4% 7.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.7% 15.3% 4.5%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 11.3
.500 or above 83.5% 92.2% 71.9%
.500 or above in Conference 76.2% 87.4% 61.0%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.4% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.4% 5.9% 2.4%
First Round12.0% 16.1% 6.4%
Second Round3.7% 5.0% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Away) - 57.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 3
Quad 24 - 46 - 7
Quad 36 - 312 - 10
Quad 42 - 014 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 28, 2020 100   TCU L 65-70 57%     0 - 1 -0.2 +1.2 -1.9
  Nov 29, 2020 69   South Carolina L 58-69 44%     0 - 2 -3.0 -15.3 +13.2
  Dec 04, 2020 188   Texas Arlington W 79-64 84%     1 - 2 +10.9 +3.5 +7.3
  Dec 15, 2020 65   Wichita St. L 65-69 49%     1 - 3 0 - 1 +2.7 +1.8 +0.4
  Dec 18, 2020 318   Northwestern St. W 82-55 95%     2 - 3 +14.2 -2.0 +14.8
  Dec 21, 2020 63   @ Memphis W 56-49 33%     3 - 3 1 - 1 +17.9 -6.2 +24.2
  Dec 29, 2020 6   Houston W 65-64 19%     4 - 3 2 - 1 +16.8 +6.1 +10.9
  Jan 02, 2021 85   @ Cincinnati W 70-66 43%     5 - 3 3 - 1 +12.4 +8.0 +4.6
  Jan 06, 2021 98   @ South Florida W 61-51 49%     6 - 3 4 - 1 +16.7 -0.9 +18.4
  Jan 13, 2021 65   @ Wichita St. L 53-72 36%     6 - 4 4 - 2 -8.7 -12.5 +2.6
  Jan 17, 2021 63   Memphis W 58-57 47%     7 - 4 5 - 2 +8.3 -1.0 +9.4
  Jan 20, 2021 6   @ Houston L 59-86 12%     7 - 5 5 - 3 -7.5 -3.2 -4.2
  Jan 30, 2021 143   @ East Carolina W 65-62 57%    
  Feb 03, 2021 98   South Florida W 63-60 66%    
  Feb 06, 2021 91   @ Central Florida L 63-64 41%    
  Feb 10, 2021 182   @ Tulane W 66-59 69%    
  Feb 13, 2021 61   SMU L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 17, 2021 129   Temple W 67-61 74%    
  Feb 24, 2021 85   Cincinnati W 68-66 61%    
  Feb 27, 2021 143   East Carolina W 67-60 77%    
  Mar 02, 2021 129   @ Temple W 65-63 53%    
  Mar 07, 2021 61   @ SMU L 66-71 29%    
Projected Record 13 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 6.8 7.7 3.7 0.5 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.7 10.0 9.1 3.1 0.4 0.0 26.6 3rd
4th 0.2 3.1 9.3 7.8 2.2 0.2 22.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 6.6 5.6 1.3 0.1 15.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.8 7.2 13.1 19.3 21.5 18.2 11.5 4.7 0.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 45.3% 0.4    0.1 0.3 0.0
14-6 13.8% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.5% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.9% 93.7% 13.2% 80.5% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 92.8%
14-6 4.7% 70.7% 9.7% 61.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.4 67.6%
13-7 11.5% 41.0% 7.7% 33.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 1.4 0.1 6.8 36.1%
12-8 18.2% 18.1% 5.8% 12.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.5 0.2 14.9 13.0%
11-9 21.5% 6.4% 4.2% 2.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 20.1 2.3%
10-10 19.3% 2.7% 2.5% 0.2% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 18.8 0.2%
9-11 13.1% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.9 0.0%
8-12 7.2% 1.0% 1.0% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1
7-13 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.8
6-14 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.4% 4.2% 10.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.3 4.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 85.6 10.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.8 1.6 14.8 24.6 27.9 27.9 1.6 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 95.4% 7.7 0.8 3.1 13.8 23.8 26.9 20.0 6.2 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 92.6% 8.9 1.9 12.3 18.5 34.0 16.7 9.3
Lose Out 0.0%