Cincinnati
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.3#87
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#158
Pace74.9#54
Improvement+0.0#167

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#121
First Shot+0.6#163
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#107
Layup/Dunks+6.3#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#339
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#260
Freethrows+1.0#106
Improvement+0.2#150

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#61
First Shot+2.4#96
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#41
Layups/Dunks-1.6#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#26
Freethrows-2.1#297
Improvement-0.2#193
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.6% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 2.4% 0.3%
Average Seed 12.0 11.5 13.0
.500 or above 22.5% 35.4% 11.7%
.500 or above in Conference 7.1% 13.2% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.9% 3.3% 11.6%
First Four0.9% 1.4% 0.4%
First Round3.3% 4.9% 2.0%
Second Round1.0% 1.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Away) - 45.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 23 - 64 - 9
Quad 34 - 47 - 13
Quad 42 - 010 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 212   Lipscomb W 67-49 86%     1 - 0 +12.8 -6.2 +20.4
  Dec 06, 2020 47   Xavier L 69-77 39%     1 - 1 +1.3 -1.4 +2.9
  Dec 09, 2020 95   Furman W 78-73 59%     2 - 1 +8.9 +2.1 +6.6
  Dec 12, 2020 19   @ Tennessee L 56-65 18%     2 - 2 +7.1 -7.1 +14.3
  Dec 16, 2020 104   South Florida L 71-74 63%     2 - 3 0 - 1 +0.0 +3.6 -3.6
  Dec 19, 2020 96   @ Georgia L 68-83 47%     2 - 4 -7.8 -13.6 +8.2
  Dec 22, 2020 98   @ Central Florida L 70-75 48%     2 - 5 0 - 2 +1.8 +0.7 +1.2
  Jan 02, 2021 91   Tulsa L 66-70 58%     2 - 6 0 - 3 +0.2 +2.7 -2.9
  Jan 07, 2021 57   @ SMU W 76-69 29%     3 - 6 1 - 3 +18.9 -0.6 +18.9
  Jan 10, 2021 68   @ Wichita St. L 76-82 36%     3 - 7 1 - 4 +4.1 +0.9 +3.7
  Jan 30, 2021 104   @ South Florida L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 04, 2021 122   Temple W 73-68 71%    
  Feb 07, 2021 188   @ Tulane W 72-65 69%    
  Feb 11, 2021 51   @ Memphis L 69-75 25%    
  Feb 14, 2021 98   Central Florida W 71-68 66%    
  Feb 21, 2021 7   Houston L 62-72 22%    
  Feb 24, 2021 91   @ Tulsa L 66-67 41%    
  Feb 26, 2021 188   Tulane W 73-63 85%    
  Feb 28, 2021 51   Memphis L 70-73 46%    
  Mar 04, 2021 57   SMU L 74-76 47%    
  Mar 07, 2021 158   @ East Carolina W 72-68 61%    
Projected Record 9 - 12 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.9 2.1 0.2 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.9 6.8 5.2 0.7 0.0 14.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 8.2 7.2 1.2 0.0 18.7 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 8.5 8.3 1.9 0.0 20.9 8th
9th 0.3 2.8 8.5 7.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 21.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 3.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 8.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.0 7.6 13.7 19.0 20.4 17.1 11.2 5.3 1.6 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.2% 88.5% 23.3% 65.2% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.1%
11-9 1.6% 41.6% 10.0% 31.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 35.1%
10-10 5.3% 15.8% 7.7% 8.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.5 8.7%
9-11 11.2% 6.7% 5.4% 1.3% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 10.5 1.4%
8-12 17.1% 3.2% 3.1% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 16.5 0.0%
7-13 20.4% 1.8% 1.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 20.1
6-14 19.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.3 0.1 0.1 18.8
5-15 13.7% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 13.6
4-16 7.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.5
3-17 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.0
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 3.7% 2.5% 1.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 96.3 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 3.8 20.8 30.2 34.0 9.4 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 93.0% 8.5 5.3 15.8 19.3 33.3 19.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 76.9% 9.4 5.8 11.5 21.2 23.1 13.5 1.9
Lose Out 0.1%