Houston
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.7#6
Expected Predictive Rating+20.1#5
Pace64.2#302
Improvement-0.2#188

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#21
First Shot+1.0#154
After Offensive Rebound+6.8#1
Layup/Dunks-2.7#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#128
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#160
Freethrows+2.7#32
Improvement+1.2#84

Defense
Total Defense+9.8#3
First Shot+9.2#1
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#137
Layups/Dunks+3.6#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#26
Freethrows-1.7#276
Improvement-1.4#274
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.5% 5.0% 1.1%
#1 Seed 25.3% 27.5% 10.2%
Top 2 Seed 54.6% 58.1% 29.8%
Top 4 Seed 86.7% 89.1% 69.9%
Top 6 Seed 96.5% 97.4% 89.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 99.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.9% 99.2%
Average Seed 2.7 2.6 3.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 92.0% 93.6% 80.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.5%
Second Round90.1% 91.1% 83.1%
Sweet Sixteen60.9% 62.4% 50.7%
Elite Eight35.2% 36.6% 25.9%
Final Four18.3% 19.2% 12.3%
Championship Game9.0% 9.5% 5.7%
National Champion4.2% 4.4% 2.6%

Next Game: Temple (Away) - 87.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 01 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 13 - 1
Quad 27 - 210 - 3
Quad 39 - 019 - 3
Quad 44 - 023 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 306   Lamar W 89-45 99%     1 - 0 +33.0 +10.5 +21.1
  Nov 27, 2020 36   Boise St. W 68-58 77%     2 - 0 +19.9 -0.6 +20.5
  Nov 29, 2020 16   Texas Tech W 64-53 59%     3 - 0 +26.4 +3.8 +23.2
  Dec 05, 2020 69   South Carolina W 77-67 86%     4 - 0 +16.2 +7.2 +9.0
  Dec 20, 2020 334   Alcorn St. W 88-55 99%     5 - 0 +17.6 +9.4 +9.7
  Dec 22, 2020 129   Temple W 76-50 93%     6 - 0 1 - 0 +26.8 +8.1 +19.6
  Dec 26, 2020 91   @ Central Florida W 63-54 83%     7 - 0 2 - 0 +16.7 +2.0 +15.6
  Dec 29, 2020 87   @ Tulsa L 64-65 81%     7 - 1 2 - 1 +7.3 +2.8 +4.4
  Jan 03, 2021 61   @ SMU W 74-60 73%     8 - 1 3 - 1 +25.4 +7.6 +18.2
  Jan 06, 2021 65   Wichita St. W 70-63 85%     9 - 1 4 - 1 +13.7 +3.4 +10.6
  Jan 09, 2021 182   Tulane W 71-50 97%     10 - 1 5 - 1 +17.3 +8.1 +12.0
  Jan 17, 2021 91   Central Florida W 75-58 89%     11 - 1 6 - 1 +21.0 +11.6 +10.8
  Jan 20, 2021 87   Tulsa W 86-59 88%     12 - 1 7 - 1 +31.7 +17.9 +13.7
  Jan 23, 2021 129   @ Temple W 72-59 87%    
  Jan 27, 2021 182   @ Tulane W 72-54 94%    
  Jan 31, 2021 61   SMU W 75-65 85%    
  Feb 03, 2021 143   @ East Carolina W 72-58 89%    
  Feb 14, 2021 63   Memphis W 71-61 85%    
  Feb 17, 2021 143   East Carolina W 74-56 96%    
  Feb 21, 2021 85   @ Cincinnati W 72-63 77%    
  Feb 25, 2021 65   @ Wichita St. W 72-65 71%    
  Feb 28, 2021 98   South Florida W 70-55 93%    
  Mar 06, 2021 63   @ Memphis W 70-63 69%    
Projected Record 20 - 3 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.4 10.3 24.5 32.6 22.0 92.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.8 1.0 0.1 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.9 13.1 25.4 32.7 22.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 22.0    22.0
16-4 99.8% 32.6    31.9 0.7
15-5 96.2% 24.5    21.1 3.3 0.1
14-6 78.1% 10.3    6.6 3.3 0.4 0.0
13-7 48.7% 2.4    1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-8 13.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-9 3.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 92.0% 92.0 82.6 8.4 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 22.0% 100.0% 68.6% 31.4% 1.5 13.1 7.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 32.7% 100.0% 61.8% 38.2% 2.0 9.9 14.0 6.5 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 25.4% 100.0% 55.7% 44.3% 3.0 2.1 6.9 8.2 5.9 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.1% 100.0% 49.3% 50.6% 4.3 0.2 0.9 2.7 4.2 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 4.9% 99.8% 43.3% 56.5% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-8 1.4% 97.8% 37.0% 60.8% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.5%
11-9 0.4% 93.9% 26.0% 68.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.8%
10-10 0.1% 79.4% 17.6% 61.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 75.0%
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 58.7% 41.2% 2.7 25.3 29.3 18.9 13.2 6.3 3.5 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.1% 100.0% 1.4 66.3 30.5 3.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8% 100.0% 1.6 48.6 40.5 9.5 1.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.7% 100.0% 1.7 44.3 41.9 12.3 1.4 0.1