Texas
Big 12
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.7#10
Expected Predictive Rating+19.8#6
Pace69.9#181
Improvement-1.0#231

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#14
First Shot+6.5#32
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#67
Layup/Dunks+2.1#97
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#72
Freethrows+2.0#59
Improvement+0.8#108

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#9
First Shot+7.2#15
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#111
Layups/Dunks+1.1#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#22
Freethrows-0.7#222
Improvement-1.7#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.7% 4.3% 1.3%
#1 Seed 19.1% 21.8% 8.3%
Top 2 Seed 45.7% 50.4% 26.5%
Top 4 Seed 79.8% 83.8% 64.0%
Top 6 Seed 93.1% 95.4% 83.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.9% 98.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% 99.9% 98.8%
Average Seed 3.1 2.9 4.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 98.3% 88.3%
Conference Champion 17.4% 20.1% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.9%
First Round99.6% 99.8% 98.6%
Second Round86.8% 88.5% 79.7%
Sweet Sixteen55.6% 57.6% 47.3%
Elite Eight30.4% 32.3% 23.2%
Final Four15.0% 16.0% 10.7%
Championship Game6.7% 7.3% 4.5%
National Champion2.8% 3.1% 1.5%

Next Game: TCU (Away) - 80.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 6
Quad 24 - 112 - 6
Quad 34 - 016 - 7
Quad 44 - 019 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 218   UT Rio Grande Valley W 91-55 97%     1 - 0 +30.4 +9.0 +18.0
  Nov 30, 2020 66   Davidson W 78-76 79%     2 - 0 +10.4 +15.1 -4.5
  Dec 01, 2020 23   Indiana W 66-44 62%     3 - 0 +35.6 +3.1 +33.4
  Dec 02, 2020 35   North Carolina W 69-67 68%     4 - 0 +14.0 +4.7 +9.3
  Dec 06, 2020 5   Villanova L 64-68 53%     4 - 1 +11.9 -1.7 +13.4
  Dec 09, 2020 155   Texas St. W 74-53 94%     5 - 1 +19.7 +3.7 +16.6
  Dec 16, 2020 176   Sam Houston St. W 79-63 96%     6 - 1 +13.0 +1.4 +11.0
  Dec 20, 2020 33   Oklahoma St. W 77-74 73%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +13.3 +7.4 +5.8
  Jan 02, 2021 15   @ Kansas W 84-59 48%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +42.3 +15.5 +25.6
  Jan 05, 2021 111   Iowa St. W 78-72 90%     9 - 1 3 - 0 +8.4 +5.6 +2.9
  Jan 09, 2021 17   @ West Virginia W 72-70 50%     10 - 1 4 - 0 +18.7 +7.3 +11.4
  Jan 13, 2021 16   Texas Tech L 77-79 62%     10 - 2 4 - 1 +11.6 +12.2 -0.6
  Jan 16, 2021 150   Kansas St. W 82-67 94%     11 - 2 5 - 1 +14.1 +9.4 +4.7
  Jan 23, 2021 100   @ TCU W 74-64 80%    
  Jan 26, 2021 21   Oklahoma W 75-70 71%    
  Jan 30, 2021 60   @ Kentucky W 70-65 64%    
  Feb 02, 2021 2   Baylor L 70-74 39%    
  Feb 06, 2021 33   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-71 56%    
  Feb 09, 2021 150   @ Kansas St. W 75-61 88%    
  Feb 13, 2021 100   TCU W 76-62 92%    
  Feb 16, 2021 21   @ Oklahoma W 73-72 50%    
  Feb 20, 2021 17   West Virginia W 75-71 67%    
  Feb 22, 2021 15   Kansas W 72-69 65%    
  Feb 27, 2021 16   @ Texas Tech L 68-69 44%    
Projected Record 18 - 6 12 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.4 6.4 6.2 2.2 17.4 1st
2nd 0.0 2.2 12.7 18.9 11.5 2.6 47.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 7.7 8.3 1.8 0.0 18.7 3rd
4th 0.2 3.3 4.6 0.6 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 2.7 0.5 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.9 7.5 15.0 21.8 23.2 17.9 8.8 2.2 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 2.2    1.7 0.5
14-4 70.7% 6.2    3.6 2.6 0.0
13-5 35.7% 6.4    2.3 3.7 0.4
12-6 10.5% 2.4    0.3 1.4 0.7 0.1
11-7 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.4% 17.4 7.9 8.2 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 2.2% 100.0% 33.1% 66.9% 1.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.8% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 1.4 5.5 3.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 17.9% 100.0% 20.3% 79.7% 1.8 7.0 8.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 23.2% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.4 4.0 9.7 6.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 21.8% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 3.3 0.9 4.4 7.2 6.1 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 15.0% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 4.4 0.1 0.9 2.7 4.5 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 7.5% 99.7% 4.4% 95.2% 5.9 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
8-10 2.9% 97.8% 3.8% 94.0% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.7%
7-11 0.7% 80.3% 2.2% 78.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 79.9%
6-12 0.1% 39.7% 39.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 39.7%
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.7% 13.9% 85.8% 3.1 19.1 26.6 19.7 14.4 8.7 4.6 2.9 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 90.7 9.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.2 82.3 17.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 81.0 18.5 0.5