Villanova
Big East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.7#6
Expected Predictive Rating+21.2#4
Pace63.8#310
Improvement+0.8#121

Offense
Total Offense+12.7#3
First Shot+11.3#4
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#94
Layup/Dunks-0.1#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#9
Freethrows+1.5#89
Improvement+0.3#146

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#51
First Shot+1.8#121
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#13
Layups/Dunks+2.2#105
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#266
Freethrows+4.0#6
Improvement+0.5#142
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.9% 3.3% 1.0%
#1 Seed 18.9% 21.4% 6.4%
Top 2 Seed 44.5% 49.0% 21.4%
Top 4 Seed 77.3% 81.1% 58.0%
Top 6 Seed 91.2% 93.1% 81.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.3% 99.5% 97.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.8% 99.2% 97.0%
Average Seed 3.2 3.0 4.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 98.8% 94.3%
Conference Champion 52.5% 56.5% 31.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round99.1% 99.4% 97.6%
Second Round87.5% 89.1% 79.6%
Sweet Sixteen57.1% 59.8% 43.5%
Elite Eight33.6% 35.8% 22.2%
Final Four16.8% 18.3% 9.4%
Championship Game8.3% 9.2% 3.6%
National Champion4.7% 5.3% 1.9%

Next Game: Providence (Home) - 83.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 3
Quad 27 - 212 - 5
Quad 37 - 018 - 5
Quad 42 - 020 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 106   Boston College W 76-67 89%     1 - 0 +13.5 +10.8 +3.5
  Nov 26, 2020 77   Arizona St. W 83-74 84%     2 - 0 +16.0 +9.7 +5.9
  Nov 28, 2020 43   Virginia Tech L 73-81 OT 74%     2 - 1 +3.1 +5.2 -1.9
  Dec 01, 2020 221   Hartford W 87-53 97%     3 - 1 +30.0 +24.7 +9.3
  Dec 06, 2020 10   @ Texas W 68-64 47%     4 - 1 +22.5 +7.4 +15.3
  Dec 11, 2020 108   @ Georgetown W 76-63 86%     5 - 1 1 - 0 +19.2 +13.0 +7.4
  Dec 16, 2020 80   Butler W 85-66 88%     6 - 1 2 - 0 +24.0 +21.6 +3.6
  Dec 19, 2020 200   Saint Joseph's W 88-68 97%     7 - 1 +15.3 +10.9 +4.5
  Dec 23, 2020 56   @ Marquette W 85-68 72%     8 - 1 3 - 0 +28.7 +21.4 +8.3
  Jan 19, 2021 40   Seton Hall W 76-74 78%     9 - 1 4 - 0 +11.7 +9.8 +2.0
  Jan 23, 2021 53   Providence W 76-67 84%    
  Jan 28, 2021 26   @ Connecticut W 70-67 55%    
  Jan 30, 2021 40   @ Seton Hall W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 03, 2021 79   @ St. John's W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 07, 2021 48   Xavier W 76-67 81%    
  Feb 09, 2021 109   DePaul W 79-64 93%    
  Feb 13, 2021 12   @ Creighton W 74-73 46%    
  Feb 17, 2021 108   Georgetown W 80-65 94%    
  Feb 20, 2021 26   Connecticut W 71-65 76%    
  Feb 23, 2021 79   St. John's W 84-71 90%    
  Feb 28, 2021 80   @ Butler W 70-61 77%    
  Mar 03, 2021 12   Creighton W 76-72 66%    
  Mar 06, 2021 53   @ Providence W 75-69 66%    
Projected Record 19 - 4 14 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.5 4.9 12.9 16.9 13.2 4.1 52.5 1st
2nd 0.5 4.4 11.0 6.8 1.5 24.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.4 7.0 3.2 0.3 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.1 0.9 0.2 5.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.4 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.8 7.5 12.8 19.3 20.0 18.4 13.2 4.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 4.1    4.1
16-4 100.0% 13.2    12.7 0.5
15-5 92.0% 16.9    12.8 4.0 0.2
14-6 64.4% 12.9    6.2 5.8 0.9
13-7 25.4% 4.9    1.4 2.2 1.2 0.1
12-8 3.9% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 52.5% 52.5 37.2 12.7 2.4 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 4.1% 100.0% 59.0% 41.0% 1.3 3.0 1.1 100.0%
16-4 13.2% 100.0% 56.0% 44.0% 1.5 6.9 5.4 0.9 0.0 100.0%
15-5 18.4% 100.0% 43.1% 56.9% 1.9 6.2 8.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-6 20.0% 100.0% 39.0% 61.0% 2.6 2.3 7.3 7.3 2.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 19.3% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 3.6 0.5 2.8 6.7 5.2 3.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 12.8% 100.0% 26.2% 73.8% 4.8 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.1 3.0 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 7.5% 100.0% 14.6% 85.3% 6.3 0.4 0.6 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 2.8% 93.0% 14.2% 78.9% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 91.9%
9-11 1.4% 89.0% 21.2% 67.8% 9.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 86.0%
8-12 0.4% 23.9% 0.3% 23.6% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 23.6%
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.3% 36.9% 62.4% 3.2 18.9 25.6 20.3 12.5 7.8 6.1 3.3 2.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 98.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 1.2 80.5 19.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 1.3 68.3 31.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 1.3 71.7 28.3