North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#44
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#79
Pace76.7#41
Improvement+1.0#92

Offense
Total Offense+8.8#12
First Shot+7.4#17
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#94
Layup/Dunks+1.0#132
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#118
Freethrows+3.5#26
Improvement-1.0#287

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#125
First Shot-0.6#198
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#74
Layups/Dunks-2.8#275
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#240
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#192
Freethrows+3.3#18
Improvement+2.0#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.9% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 5.4% 8.7% 2.8%
Top 6 Seed 12.9% 19.3% 8.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47.0% 59.7% 37.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.2% 57.1% 34.7%
Average Seed 8.0 7.6 8.4
.500 or above 78.7% 88.6% 71.2%
.500 or above in Conference 66.3% 72.7% 61.4%
Conference Champion 4.8% 6.4% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.8% 1.4%
First Four6.0% 6.5% 5.6%
First Round43.9% 56.6% 34.3%
Second Round24.1% 32.3% 17.8%
Sweet Sixteen8.7% 12.2% 6.0%
Elite Eight3.3% 4.9% 2.1%
Final Four1.2% 1.9% 0.6%
Championship Game0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan (Home) - 43.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 10
Quad 25 - 39 - 13
Quad 35 - 113 - 14
Quad 46 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 302   Loyola Maryland W 83-67 96%     1 - 0 +5.1 +2.2 +2.1
  Nov 12, 2021 226   Brown W 94-87 93%     2 - 0 +0.8 +19.7 -18.9
  Nov 16, 2021 206   @ College of Charleston W 94-83 81%     3 - 0 +11.9 +5.4 +4.6
  Nov 20, 2021 2   Purdue L 84-93 19%     3 - 1 +10.4 +10.2 +1.0
  Nov 21, 2021 23   Tennessee L 72-89 36%     3 - 2 -3.3 +3.0 -5.4
  Nov 23, 2021 268   UNC Asheville W 72-53 95%     4 - 2 +10.0 -1.1 +12.2
  Dec 01, 2021 16   Michigan L 75-77 43%    
  Dec 05, 2021 84   @ Georgia Tech W 77-76 53%    
  Dec 11, 2021 265   Elon W 89-70 96%    
  Dec 14, 2021 103   Furman W 85-76 79%    
  Dec 18, 2021 5   UCLA L 76-84 25%    
  Dec 21, 2021 172   Appalachian St. W 80-67 89%    
  Dec 29, 2021 28   Virginia Tech W 75-74 49%    
  Jan 01, 2022 133   @ Boston College W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 05, 2022 64   @ Notre Dame L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 08, 2022 39   Virginia W 66-64 58%    
  Jan 15, 2022 84   Georgia Tech W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 18, 2022 106   @ Miami (FL) W 82-79 59%    
  Jan 22, 2022 85   @ Wake Forest W 81-80 53%    
  Jan 26, 2022 133   Boston College W 80-69 83%    
  Jan 29, 2022 65   North Carolina St. W 82-76 69%    
  Jan 31, 2022 36   @ Louisville L 74-78 35%    
  Feb 05, 2022 4   Duke L 79-84 32%    
  Feb 08, 2022 45   @ Clemson L 71-74 40%    
  Feb 12, 2022 24   Florida St. L 78-79 49%    
  Feb 16, 2022 213   Pittsburgh W 83-68 91%    
  Feb 19, 2022 28   @ Virginia Tech L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 21, 2022 36   Louisville W 77-75 55%    
  Feb 26, 2022 65   @ North Carolina St. L 79-80 48%    
  Feb 28, 2022 78   Syracuse W 86-80 71%    
  Mar 05, 2022 4   @ Duke L 76-87 16%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 2.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 3.1 3.5 1.6 0.2 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.1 2.1 0.2 10.2 4th
5th 0.5 2.4 4.4 1.9 0.2 9.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.5 3.7 0.5 0.0 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.7 0.9 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 4.1 1.6 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.0 0.3 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 2.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 4.0 6.3 8.5 10.9 12.5 12.7 11.5 10.1 8.1 5.5 3.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 97.1% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 78.4% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
16-4 45.8% 1.7    0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 16.2% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
14-6 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.5% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 3.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.7% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 4.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.5% 99.1% 15.6% 83.5% 5.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.9%
14-6 8.1% 96.1% 10.2% 86.0% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 95.7%
13-7 10.1% 90.5% 7.4% 83.0% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.0 89.7%
12-8 11.5% 73.2% 4.8% 68.4% 9.3 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.1 71.8%
11-9 12.7% 48.1% 3.1% 45.1% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.8 0.8 0.1 6.6 46.5%
10-10 12.5% 25.0% 1.1% 23.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 9.4 24.1%
9-11 10.9% 7.5% 1.0% 6.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 10.1 6.5%
8-12 8.5% 2.0% 0.7% 1.3% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.4 1.3%
7-13 6.3% 0.8% 0.8% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
6-14 4.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 4.0
5-15 2.2% 2.2
4-16 1.2% 1.2
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 47.0% 4.9% 42.1% 8.0 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.6 3.5 4.1 5.7 6.8 6.6 6.1 5.9 2.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 53.0 44.2%