UCLA
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.7#5
Expected Predictive Rating+19.6#8
Pace70.6#145
Improvement-2.3#333

Offense
Total Offense+10.3#6
First Shot+6.3#25
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#10
Layup/Dunks+1.6#117
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#137
Freethrows-0.2#197
Improvement-2.1#336

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#26
First Shot+4.1#61
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#21
Layups/Dunks-1.4#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#87
Freethrows+1.3#117
Improvement-0.2#213
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.2% 3.6% 0.4%
#1 Seed 15.4% 16.6% 4.0%
Top 2 Seed 33.3% 35.4% 13.4%
Top 4 Seed 64.9% 67.2% 44.6%
Top 6 Seed 83.4% 85.2% 67.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.8% 98.2% 94.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.7% 97.3% 92.1%
Average Seed 3.9 3.8 5.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.3% 97.0%
Conference Champion 45.4% 47.9% 22.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.2% 1.0% 2.9%
First Round97.3% 97.8% 92.7%
Second Round82.7% 83.7% 73.3%
Sweet Sixteen54.9% 56.1% 43.2%
Elite Eight31.4% 32.3% 22.8%
Final Four17.6% 18.2% 11.8%
Championship Game9.6% 10.0% 5.7%
National Champion4.8% 5.0% 2.2%

Next Game: Colorado (Home) - 90.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 33 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 16 - 5
Quad 27 - 113 - 6
Quad 38 - 021 - 6
Quad 46 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 203   Cal St. Bakersfield W 95-58 97%     1 - 0 +32.1 +14.3 +14.6
  Nov 12, 2021 8   Villanova W 86-77 OT 64%     2 - 0 +23.0 +13.0 +9.6
  Nov 15, 2021 288   Long Beach St. W 100-79 99%     3 - 0 +10.9 +9.0 -0.6
  Nov 17, 2021 277   North Florida W 98-63 99%     4 - 0 +25.7 +15.2 +8.9
  Nov 22, 2021 175   Bellarmine W 75-62 94%     5 - 0 +12.5 -0.3 +12.7
  Nov 23, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 63-83 30%     5 - 1 +3.2 -2.8 +6.1
  Nov 27, 2021 148   @ UNLV W 73-51 89%     6 - 1 +26.4 +13.7 +15.9
  Dec 01, 2021 75   Colorado W 78-64 90%    
  Dec 05, 2021 131   @ Washington W 80-68 87%    
  Dec 11, 2021 69   @ Marquette W 81-73 75%    
  Dec 15, 2021 334   Alabama St. W 89-57 99.9%   
  Dec 18, 2021 44   North Carolina W 84-76 75%    
  Dec 22, 2021 315   Cal Poly W 83-54 99.7%   
  Dec 30, 2021 6   Arizona W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 01, 2022 96   Arizona St. W 83-68 92%    
  Jan 06, 2022 97   @ Stanford W 77-68 81%    
  Jan 08, 2022 129   @ California W 73-61 87%    
  Jan 13, 2022 56   Oregon W 78-66 87%    
  Jan 15, 2022 128   Oregon St. W 78-60 95%    
  Jan 20, 2022 51   @ Utah W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 22, 2022 75   @ Colorado W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 27, 2022 129   California W 76-58 95%    
  Jan 29, 2022 97   Stanford W 80-65 91%    
  Feb 03, 2022 6   @ Arizona L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 05, 2022 96   @ Arizona St. W 80-71 80%    
  Feb 12, 2022 14   @ USC L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 17, 2022 48   Washington St. W 79-68 84%    
  Feb 19, 2022 131   Washington W 83-65 94%    
  Feb 24, 2022 56   @ Oregon W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 26, 2022 128   @ Oregon St. W 75-63 86%    
  Mar 05, 2022 14   USC W 73-67 69%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 2.5 6.8 11.8 13.2 8.2 2.6 45.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.8 7.9 8.6 5.4 1.3 28.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 5.2 4.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.2 4.3 6.9 10.7 14.9 16.6 17.3 14.5 8.2 2.6 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
19-1 100.0% 8.2    7.9 0.3
18-2 90.9% 13.2    10.9 2.3 0.1
17-3 67.9% 11.8    7.3 4.1 0.4 0.0
16-4 40.9% 6.8    3.0 3.1 0.7 0.0
15-5 16.6% 2.5    0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 45.4% 45.4 32.4 11.0 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.6% 100.0% 61.6% 38.4% 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.0 100.0%
19-1 8.2% 100.0% 56.1% 43.9% 1.5 4.8 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 14.5% 100.0% 46.6% 53.4% 1.9 5.3 5.8 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 17.3% 100.0% 40.2% 59.8% 2.6 2.8 5.5 5.9 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.6% 99.9% 32.2% 67.7% 3.5 0.7 2.4 5.6 4.6 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 14.9% 99.7% 26.5% 73.2% 4.6 0.1 0.6 2.7 4.0 3.8 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
14-6 10.7% 99.2% 21.8% 77.5% 5.8 0.0 0.6 1.4 2.6 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.0%
13-7 6.9% 97.5% 18.4% 79.2% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.0%
12-8 4.3% 91.8% 15.4% 76.5% 8.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 90.4%
11-9 2.2% 74.4% 6.8% 67.6% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.6 72.5%
10-10 1.0% 66.7% 11.1% 55.6% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 62.5%
9-11 0.6% 40.7% 8.5% 32.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 35.2%
8-12 0.2% 9.1% 4.5% 4.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.8%
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.8% 33.7% 64.1% 3.9 15.4 17.9 18.2 13.5 10.6 7.9 5.1 3.3 2.4 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.2 96.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 1.2 78.2 21.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.3 72.7 27.3