Preseason Rankings
American Athletic
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Houston 89.1%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 26 - 5 15 - 3 +18.2      +8.0 14 +10.2 2 61.7 341 0.0 1 0.0 1
35 Memphis 56.2%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +12.0      +5.4 46 +6.6 33 73.9 48 0.0 1 0.0 1
53 Cincinnati 37.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 11 - 7 +9.7      +4.8 61 +4.9 56 69.6 127 0.0 1 0.0 1
82 Tulane 19.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 9 - 9 +7.2      +5.2 50 +2.0 119 69.5 131 0.0 1 0.0 1
92 Central Florida 18.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +6.1      +2.8 104 +3.3 92 68.9 153 0.0 1 0.0 1
93 Temple 19.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 9 +6.1      +2.1 125 +4.0 78 66.4 228 0.0 1 0.0 1
94 Wichita St. 16.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +6.1      +2.3 119 +3.8 81 68.4 166 0.0 1 0.0 1
95 SMU 17.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 +6.0      +2.7 108 +3.4 89 70.4 109 0.0 1 0.0 1
136 Tulsa 5.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 7 - 11 +2.1      +0.7 168 +1.4 131 66.6 223 0.0 1 0.0 1
142 South Florida 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 6 - 12 +1.6      -2.4 253 +4.0 79 63.8 304 0.0 1 0.0 1
192 East Carolina 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 5 - 13 -0.8      -1.1 219 +0.3 165 69.6 130 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Houston 1.9 61.0 18.6 8.8 5.1 2.8 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0
Memphis 3.7 18.9 22.2 16.3 12.0 9.1 7.2 5.3 4.0 2.6 1.7 0.7
Cincinnati 4.4 11.4 17.0 15.2 13.6 11.3 9.2 7.3 6.1 4.5 2.9 1.5
Tulane 5.5 5.9 10.6 11.8 11.8 11.9 10.9 10.1 9.3 7.9 6.2 3.6
Central Florida 5.9 4.4 8.5 10.5 11.4 11.6 11.2 11.0 10.3 8.9 7.4 4.8
Temple 5.9 4.5 8.4 10.3 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.2 10.2 9.2 7.3 4.8
Wichita St. 5.8 4.7 9.0 10.8 11.2 11.6 11.4 10.8 9.9 8.7 7.1 4.9
SMU 6.0 4.3 8.3 10.1 11.2 11.5 11.2 11.0 10.4 9.2 7.7 5.1
Tulsa 7.5 1.4 3.3 5.2 6.6 8.1 9.6 10.8 12.3 13.7 14.9 13.9
South Florida 7.6 1.0 3.2 4.8 6.4 7.8 9.2 10.7 12.3 14.0 15.7 14.9
East Carolina 8.5 0.4 1.5 2.6 3.9 5.3 6.8 8.6 10.9 14.1 19.3 26.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.8 6.7 9.7 12.2 15.1 17.0 16.3 10.9
Memphis 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.3 6.2 7.6 9.4 10.7 12.0 11.8 11.0 8.9 6.5 3.6 1.3
Cincinnati 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.7 6.5 8.2 9.9 10.9 11.2 11.3 9.9 8.5 5.8 3.7 1.8 0.5
Tulane 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.3 6.4 7.6 9.2 10.2 10.9 10.7 9.9 8.4 6.7 4.8 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2
Central Florida 9 - 9 0.2 0.9 1.8 3.5 5.1 7.0 8.8 10.3 10.8 11.0 10.2 9.4 7.4 5.7 4.0 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.1
Temple 9 - 9 0.2 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.3 7.0 8.8 10.4 10.9 10.9 10.1 9.0 7.7 5.7 3.8 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1
Wichita St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.4 4.9 6.8 8.4 10.1 10.8 10.9 10.2 9.3 7.8 5.9 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.1
SMU 9 - 9 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.5 5.3 7.4 8.9 10.3 11.0 10.7 10.2 9.1 7.2 5.5 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Tulsa 7 - 11 1.2 3.2 5.7 8.1 10.2 11.1 11.4 10.7 10.0 8.3 6.8 5.0 3.7 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
South Florida 6 - 12 1.3 3.5 5.9 8.8 10.5 11.3 11.4 10.6 9.7 8.1 6.4 4.7 3.3 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
East Carolina 5 - 13 3.2 7.2 10.2 12.0 12.9 11.9 10.5 9.2 7.2 5.6 3.9 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 61.0% 50.0 9.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Memphis 18.9% 12.5 5.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 11.4% 7.1 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tulane 5.9% 3.5 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Central Florida 4.4% 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Temple 4.5% 2.5 1.5 0.4 0.1
Wichita St. 4.7% 2.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
SMU 4.3% 2.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tulsa 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
South Florida 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
East Carolina 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 89.1% 38.7% 50.3% 2   19.2 15.2 9.9 9.1 7.0 5.6 5.3 4.7 4.4 4.5 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9 82.1%
Memphis 56.2% 15.6% 40.6% 10   3.0 4.0 4.1 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.7 6.1 5.1 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 43.8 48.1%
Cincinnati 37.4% 10.7% 26.8% 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 4.6 5.6 6.0 2.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 62.6 29.9%
Tulane 19.3% 6.9% 12.4% 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.9 1.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 80.7 13.3%
Central Florida 18.0% 5.9% 12.1% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 82.0 12.9%
Temple 19.3% 5.5% 13.8% 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.0 3.5 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 80.7 14.6%
Wichita St. 16.2% 5.7% 10.6% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.5 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 83.8 11.2%
SMU 17.3% 5.1% 12.2% 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 82.7 12.8%
Tulsa 5.4% 2.5% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 94.6 3.0%
South Florida 4.5% 2.2% 2.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 95.5 2.3%
East Carolina 2.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 98.0 0.8%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 89.1% 2.5% 87.9% 71.8% 46.7% 28.2% 16.0% 9.1% 5.0%
Memphis 56.2% 4.7% 53.9% 34.6% 16.2% 7.4% 3.5% 1.5% 0.7%
Cincinnati 37.4% 5.4% 34.8% 19.7% 8.2% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Tulane 19.3% 3.3% 17.7% 8.7% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Central Florida 18.0% 3.3% 16.4% 7.6% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Temple 19.3% 3.6% 17.5% 8.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Wichita St. 16.2% 2.8% 14.9% 7.1% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
SMU 17.3% 3.4% 15.7% 7.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Tulsa 5.4% 1.3% 4.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 4.5% 1.1% 4.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 2.0% 0.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.8 7.7 30.3 37.5 19.2 4.7 0.6 0.0 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.7 0.0 10.0 34.1 36.4 15.9 3.2 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 92.7% 1.7 7.3 36.7 38.7 14.9 2.2 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 66.8% 0.9 33.2 49.5 15.6 1.6 0.1
Elite Eight 40.3% 0.4 59.7 36.0 4.2 0.2
Final Four 22.1% 0.2 77.9 21.3 0.9 0.0
Final Game 11.9% 0.1 88.1 11.8 0.1
Champion 6.2% 0.1 93.8 6.2