Preseason Rankings
Cincinnati
American Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#53
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#127
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.8#61
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#56
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.4% 2.7% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 6.6% 7.1% 0.7%
Top 6 Seed 11.8% 12.7% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.4% 39.7% 12.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.9% 32.1% 7.8%
Average Seed 8.0 7.9 10.0
.500 or above 86.9% 89.4% 59.3%
.500 or above in Conference 73.3% 75.6% 47.9%
Conference Champion 11.4% 12.1% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 2.3% 8.8%
First Four5.4% 5.6% 2.5%
First Round34.8% 36.9% 11.3%
Second Round19.7% 21.0% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen8.2% 8.8% 1.4%
Elite Eight3.6% 3.9% 0.3%
Final Four1.5% 1.7% 0.1%
Championship Game0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 91.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 23 - 35 - 7
Quad 36 - 211 - 9
Quad 48 - 118 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 215   Cleveland St. W 80-65 92%    
  Nov 13, 2022 219   Eastern Kentucky W 85-70 91%    
  Nov 16, 2022 195   @ Northern Kentucky W 72-64 75%    
  Nov 21, 2022 12   Arizona L 76-82 30%    
  Nov 30, 2022 325   NJIT W 80-57 97%    
  Dec 04, 2022 163   Bryant W 87-74 85%    
  Dec 10, 2022 27   Xavier L 74-75 50%    
  Dec 14, 2022 269   Miami (OH) W 83-65 94%    
  Dec 17, 2022 182   La Salle W 78-65 86%    
  Dec 21, 2022 229   Detroit Mercy W 80-64 90%    
  Dec 29, 2022 82   Tulane W 77-71 68%    
  Jan 01, 2023 93   @ Temple W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 05, 2023 94   @ Wichita St. W 71-70 52%    
  Jan 09, 2023 5   Houston L 64-70 33%    
  Jan 11, 2023 192   East Carolina W 79-65 86%    
  Jan 14, 2023 95   @ SMU W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 18, 2023 142   @ South Florida W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 22, 2023 35   Memphis W 74-73 52%    
  Jan 28, 2023 5   @ Houston L 61-73 18%    
  Feb 01, 2023 136   Tulsa W 76-65 80%    
  Feb 04, 2023 92   Central Florida W 75-68 70%    
  Feb 07, 2023 82   @ Tulane L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 11, 2023 142   South Florida W 72-61 81%    
  Feb 15, 2023 192   @ East Carolina W 76-68 73%    
  Feb 19, 2023 92   @ Central Florida W 72-71 52%    
  Feb 22, 2023 93   Temple W 73-66 70%    
  Feb 26, 2023 35   @ Memphis L 71-76 34%    
  Mar 05, 2023 95   SMU W 76-69 70%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.1 3.0 1.8 0.5 11.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.6 5.0 5.3 2.7 0.7 17.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 5.8 3.6 1.1 0.1 15.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.1 5.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.9 4.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.7 1.2 0.1 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.9 0.9 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.3 4.7 6.5 8.2 9.9 10.9 11.2 11.3 9.9 8.5 5.8 3.7 1.8 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.6 0.1
16-2 81.0% 3.0    2.3 0.7 0.0
15-3 53.6% 3.1    1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 24.6% 2.1    0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 8.1% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 7.1 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 44.1% 55.9% 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.8% 99.9% 35.2% 64.6% 2.7 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-2 3.7% 98.1% 30.3% 67.8% 4.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.3%
15-3 5.8% 94.4% 23.2% 71.2% 5.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 92.8%
14-4 8.5% 85.8% 19.0% 66.7% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 82.4%
13-5 9.9% 69.8% 15.1% 54.7% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.0 64.4%
12-6 11.3% 47.8% 10.9% 36.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.9 41.4%
11-7 11.2% 29.1% 8.8% 20.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.0 22.3%
10-8 10.9% 15.3% 7.1% 8.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.2 8.9%
9-9 9.9% 7.8% 5.0% 2.8% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.1 3.0%
8-10 8.2% 4.4% 4.2% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.9 0.2%
7-11 6.5% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.3 0.0%
6-12 4.7% 2.2% 2.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.6
5-13 3.3% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.2
4-14 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-15 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 37.4% 10.7% 26.8% 8.0 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.3 4.6 5.6 6.0 2.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 62.6 29.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 71.3 23.6 5.2