IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
East Carolina
American Athletic
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.8	#192
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.6	#130
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-1.1	#219

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.3	#165

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.0%	2.8%	0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.8%	1.2%	0.1%
Average Seed	11.9	11.5	14.0

.500 or above	31.4%	42.0%	13.6%
.500 or above in Conference	15.6%	20.7%	7.1%
Conference Champion	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%
Last Place in Conference	36.3%	28.6%	49.1%

First Four	0.6%	0.7%	0.4%
First Round	1.8%	2.5%	0.7%
Second Round	0.5%	0.7%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 62.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	1 - 5	2 - 9
Quad 3	3 - 5	5 - 15
Quad 4	7 - 2	12 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 08, 2022	198	Mercer	W	71-68	62%
Nov 12, 2022	310	Presbyterian	W	72-61	84%
Nov 16, 2022	328	Hampton	W	80-67	87%
Nov 21, 2022	161	Indiana St.	L	72-73	46%
Nov 26, 2022	186	@ Old Dominion	L	65-68	39%
Nov 29, 2022	356	South Carolina St.	W	85-64	95%
Dec 02, 2022	256	Campbell	W	68-61	72%
Dec 06, 2022	179	@ UNC Wilmington	L	68-71	39%
Dec 11, 2022	336	Coppin St.	W	83-69	87%
Dec 17, 2022	87	South Carolina	L	69-77	27%
Dec 21, 2022	255	High Point	W	73-66	71%
Dec 28, 2022	93	Temple	L	67-71	37%
Dec 31, 2022	94	@ Wichita St.	L	65-75	21%
Jan 04, 2023	92	Central Florida	L	69-73	37%
Jan 07, 2023	35	@ Memphis	L	65-81	10%
Jan 11, 2023	53	@ Cincinnati	L	65-79	14%
Jan 15, 2023	142	South Florida	W	66-65	52%
Jan 18, 2023	93	@ Temple	L	64-74	22%
Jan 24, 2023	136	Tulsa	W	70-69	50%
Jan 29, 2023	94	Wichita St.	L	68-72	38%
Feb 01, 2023	142	@ South Florida	L	63-68	33%
Feb 04, 2023	95	SMU	L	70-74	38%
Feb 11, 2023	82	@ Tulane	L	68-79	19%
Feb 15, 2023	53	Cincinnati	L	68-76	27%
Feb 19, 2023	95	@ SMU	L	67-77	22%
Feb 21, 2023	136	@ Tulsa	L	67-73	32%
Feb 25, 2023	5	Houston	L	58-74	11%
Mar 01, 2023	82	Tulane	L	71-76	35%
Mar 05, 2023	92	@ Central Florida	L	66-76	22%
Projected Record						12 - 17	5 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.1	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.0				1.5	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	0.9	0.8	0.3	0.1						2.6	3rd
4th									0.1	0.7	1.5	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.0						3.9	4th
5th								0.1	1.0	2.2	1.6	0.4	0.0								5.3	5th
6th							0.1	1.2	3.0	2.0	0.4	0.0	0.0								6.8	6th
7th						0.1	1.4	3.9	2.6	0.6	0.0										8.6	7th
8th				0.0	0.2	2.1	4.7	3.3	0.6	0.0											10.9	8th
9th			0.0	0.6	3.5	5.7	3.6	0.7	0.0												14.1	9th
10th		0.2	2.1	5.8	6.8	3.6	0.7	0.0													19.3	10th
11th	3.2	7.0	8.1	5.6	2.4	0.4	0.0	0.0													26.8	11th

Total	3.2	7.2	10.2	12.0	12.9	11.9	10.5	9.2	7.2	5.6	3.9	2.7	1.7	0.9	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0				Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0	0.0
16-2	72.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0
15-3	41.8%	0.1		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-4	21.6%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0
13-5	6.4%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.3%	0.0		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0							0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.4%	0.4		0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%		100.0%	37.5%	62.5%	5.4				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0									100.0%
16-2	0.1%		83.1%	14.2%	68.9%	7.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0						0.0		80.3%
15-3	0.3%		67.9%	11.1%	56.9%	8.1				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0					0.1		63.9%
14-4	0.5%		51.5%	12.7%	38.9%	9.6						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.2		44.5%
13-5	0.9%		26.7%	8.8%	17.9%	10.6								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.0		0.7		19.7%
12-6	1.7%		13.3%	5.6%	7.7%	11.0									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			1.4		8.2%
11-7	2.7%		5.6%	4.6%	1.0%	11.8											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			0.0	2.5		1.1%
10-8	3.9%		3.0%	2.5%	0.5%	12.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.8		0.5%
9-9	5.6%		3.4%	3.3%	0.0%	13.2												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0		5.4		0.0%
8-10	7.2%		2.1%	2.1%		14.2												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	7.1
7-11	9.2%		1.4%	1.4%		14.9														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.1
6-12	10.5%		0.9%	0.9%		15.4															0.0	0.0	0.1	10.4
5-13	11.9%		0.9%	0.9%		15.9																0.0	0.1	11.8
4-14	12.9%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	12.8
3-15	12.0%		0.3%	0.3%		16.0																	0.0	12.0
2-16	10.2%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.2
1-17	7.2%																							7.2
0-18	3.2%																							3.2

Total	100%		2.0%	1.3%	0.8%	11.9				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.3	98.0		0.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%