Preseason Rankings
Houston
American Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.2#5
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.7#341
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+10.2#2
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.6% 4.7% 0.7%
#1 Seed 19.2% 19.4% 1.7%
Top 2 Seed 34.4% 34.8% 5.4%
Top 4 Seed 53.4% 54.0% 12.6%
Top 6 Seed 66.0% 66.6% 21.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.1% 89.5% 54.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.1% 82.8% 44.7%
Average Seed 4.4 4.4 7.1
.500 or above 99.1% 99.3% 89.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 97.8% 86.0%
Conference Champion 61.0% 61.5% 28.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four2.5% 2.4% 4.0%
First Round87.9% 88.3% 53.7%
Second Round71.8% 72.3% 32.9%
Sweet Sixteen46.7% 47.2% 13.6%
Elite Eight28.2% 28.5% 6.1%
Final Four16.0% 16.2% 3.4%
Championship Game9.1% 9.2% 1.9%
National Champion5.0% 5.1% 0.4%

Next Game: Northern Colorado (Home) - 98.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 3
Quad 26 - 19 - 4
Quad 39 - 118 - 5
Quad 48 - 026 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 213   Northern Colorado W 83-60 99%    
  Nov 11, 2022 149   Saint Joseph's W 75-58 94%    
  Nov 14, 2022 122   Oral Roberts W 83-65 94%    
  Nov 16, 2022 241   Texas Southern W 78-53 98%    
  Nov 20, 2022 26   @ Oregon W 69-67 57%    
  Nov 26, 2022 120   Kent St. W 74-56 93%    
  Nov 29, 2022 190   Norfolk St. W 76-54 97%    
  Dec 03, 2022 44   St. Mary's W 64-57 73%    
  Dec 06, 2022 243   North Florida W 81-56 98%    
  Dec 10, 2022 22   Alabama W 76-69 73%    
  Dec 13, 2022 270   N.C. A&T W 80-53 99%    
  Dec 17, 2022 20   @ Virginia W 58-57 54%    
  Dec 21, 2022 331   McNeese St. W 86-54 99.5%   
  Dec 28, 2022 136   @ Tulsa W 72-59 85%    
  Dec 31, 2022 92   Central Florida W 74-59 89%    
  Jan 05, 2023 95   SMU W 74-59 88%    
  Jan 09, 2023 53   @ Cincinnati W 70-64 67%    
  Jan 11, 2023 142   South Florida W 71-51 94%    
  Jan 17, 2023 82   @ Tulane W 72-64 73%    
  Jan 22, 2023 93   Temple W 72-57 88%    
  Jan 25, 2023 92   @ Central Florida W 71-62 76%    
  Jan 28, 2023 53   Cincinnati W 73-61 82%    
  Feb 02, 2023 94   @ Wichita St. W 70-61 76%    
  Feb 05, 2023 93   @ Temple W 69-60 76%    
  Feb 08, 2023 136   Tulsa W 75-56 93%    
  Feb 16, 2023 95   @ SMU W 71-62 76%    
  Feb 19, 2023 35   Memphis W 73-64 76%    
  Feb 22, 2023 82   Tulane W 75-61 87%    
  Feb 25, 2023 192   @ East Carolina W 74-58 89%    
  Mar 02, 2023 94   Wichita St. W 73-58 88%    
  Mar 05, 2023 35   @ Memphis W 70-67 60%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.2 11.1 15.8 16.3 10.9 61.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.1 6.1 3.9 1.2 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 2.8 0.9 0.1 8.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 2.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.8 6.7 9.7 12.2 15.1 17.0 16.3 10.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 10.9    10.9
17-1 100.0% 16.3    15.7 0.6
16-2 92.8% 15.8    13.4 2.3 0.0
15-3 73.3% 11.1    7.3 3.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 42.6% 5.2    2.3 2.3 0.6 0.0
13-5 16.0% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 61.0% 61.0 50.0 9.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 10.9% 100.0% 63.9% 36.1% 1.4 7.6 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 16.3% 99.9% 55.5% 44.4% 1.9 7.5 5.3 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-2 17.0% 99.7% 45.5% 54.1% 2.9 3.4 4.7 3.6 2.7 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
15-3 15.1% 98.7% 38.0% 60.7% 4.4 0.7 2.0 2.7 3.2 2.4 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.9%
14-4 12.2% 95.5% 30.4% 65.2% 6.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 93.6%
13-5 9.7% 88.0% 25.6% 62.4% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 83.9%
12-6 6.7% 77.0% 21.1% 55.8% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.5 70.8%
11-7 4.8% 57.3% 17.8% 39.5% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 48.0%
10-8 3.0% 40.1% 14.0% 26.0% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 30.3%
9-9 1.9% 23.7% 9.7% 14.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 15.5%
8-10 1.1% 12.3% 7.5% 4.9% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.3%
7-11 0.6% 7.1% 7.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
6-12 0.3% 9.3% 9.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 89.1% 38.7% 50.3% 4.4 19.2 15.2 9.9 9.1 7.0 5.6 5.3 4.7 4.4 4.5 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9 82.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.8% 100.0% 1.2 78.7 20.4 0.9