Preseason Rankings
Tulsa
American Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#136
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace66.6#223
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#168
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#131
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 8.4% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.0% 5.1% 0.7%
Average Seed 10.5 10.1 12.4
.500 or above 36.4% 51.2% 20.4%
.500 or above in Conference 28.4% 37.8% 18.3%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.3% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 20.7% 13.5% 28.5%
First Four1.3% 1.9% 0.7%
First Round4.8% 7.5% 1.8%
Second Round1.7% 2.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 52.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 31 - 5
Quad 22 - 42 - 10
Quad 34 - 46 - 14
Quad 46 - 112 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 204   @ Oregon St. W 72-71 52%    
  Nov 12, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 70-56 89%    
  Nov 17, 2022 54   Loyola Chicago L 61-69 25%    
  Nov 25, 2022 38   @ Oklahoma St. L 63-76 14%    
  Dec 03, 2022 122   Oral Roberts W 78-76 56%    
  Dec 07, 2022 229   Detroit Mercy W 74-66 75%    
  Dec 10, 2022 263   Central Michigan W 76-65 81%    
  Dec 16, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 88-58 99%    
  Dec 21, 2022 155   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-71 45%    
  Dec 28, 2022 5   Houston L 59-72 15%    
  Jan 01, 2023 95   @ SMU L 67-74 29%    
  Jan 04, 2023 82   @ Tulane L 68-76 26%    
  Jan 10, 2023 93   Temple L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 14, 2023 94   @ Wichita St. L 66-73 29%    
  Jan 18, 2023 95   SMU L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 21, 2023 82   Tulane L 71-73 43%    
  Jan 24, 2023 192   @ East Carolina L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 29, 2023 35   Memphis L 68-75 29%    
  Feb 01, 2023 53   @ Cincinnati L 65-76 20%    
  Feb 05, 2023 94   Wichita St. L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 08, 2023 5   @ Houston L 56-75 7%    
  Feb 11, 2023 92   @ Central Florida L 66-73 29%    
  Feb 15, 2023 142   South Florida W 66-62 61%    
  Feb 19, 2023 93   @ Temple L 64-71 29%    
  Feb 21, 2023 192   East Carolina W 73-67 68%    
  Feb 26, 2023 92   Central Florida L 69-70 47%    
  Mar 01, 2023 142   @ South Florida L 63-65 43%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.1 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.6 3.7 0.8 0.1 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 3.9 0.9 0.1 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.6 3.8 0.8 0.0 13.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 4.1 5.5 3.1 0.7 0.0 14.9 10th
11th 1.2 3.0 4.4 3.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 13.9 11th
Total 1.2 3.2 5.7 8.1 10.2 11.1 11.4 10.7 10.0 8.3 6.8 5.0 3.7 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 97.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 85.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 57.3% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 28.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 27.8% 72.2% 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.3% 94.8% 18.2% 76.7% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.7%
15-3 0.7% 79.8% 17.5% 62.3% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 75.6%
14-4 1.3% 63.8% 14.2% 49.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 57.8%
13-5 2.2% 38.4% 9.5% 28.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 31.9%
12-6 3.7% 22.2% 8.0% 14.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.8 15.4%
11-7 5.0% 10.4% 5.7% 4.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.5 4.9%
10-8 6.8% 5.5% 4.1% 1.4% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.5 1.4%
9-9 8.3% 3.2% 3.0% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.0 0.3%
8-10 10.0% 2.5% 2.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.8
7-11 10.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.5
6-12 11.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.2
5-13 11.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.1
4-14 10.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.1
3-15 8.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.1
2-16 5.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.7
1-17 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
0-18 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 5.4% 2.5% 2.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 94.6 3.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.8 50.0 33.3 16.7