Preseason Rankings
Atlantic 10
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
28 Dayton 56.2%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +12.7      +5.5 43 +7.1 23 60.3 349 0.0 1 0.0 1
45 Saint Louis 49.3%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +10.8      +6.5 31 +4.3 72 69.6 128 0.0 1 0.0 1
54 Loyola Chicago 34.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +9.7      +3.0 98 +6.7 29 63.4 313 0.0 1 0.0 1
75 Virginia Commonwealth 27.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +8.1      +1.2 155 +6.9 26 71.2 94 0.0 1 0.0 1
81 Davidson 24.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 11 10 - 8 +7.3      +5.4 47 +1.8 124 63.2 318 0.0 1 0.0 1
88 Richmond 21.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +6.7      +3.3 86 +3.3 90 67.1 212 0.0 1 0.0 1
103 St. Bonaventure 13.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 9 +4.8      +2.1 124 +2.7 106 65.0 264 0.0 1 0.0 1
112 Rhode Island 10.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +3.8      +0.4 173 +3.4 88 68.2 180 0.0 1 0.0 1
123 George Mason 8.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 10 +3.4      +1.6 141 +1.9 122 64.0 295 0.0 1 0.0 1
124 Massachusetts 8.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 9 +3.4      +5.3 48 -1.9 236 72.5 69 0.0 1 0.0 1
149 Saint Joseph's 4.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 11 +1.2      -0.3 187 +1.4 130 70.2 113 0.0 1 0.0 1
178 Duquesne 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 7 - 11 -0.3      +0.1 178 -0.4 185 65.8 246 0.0 1 0.0 1
182 La Salle 2.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 11 -0.4      -0.8 203 +0.4 161 68.3 176 0.0 1 0.0 1
196 George Washington 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 6 - 12 -1.1      -0.5 197 -0.5 188 71.9 79 0.0 1 0.0 1
202 Fordham 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 6 - 12 -1.4      -5.0 307 +3.6 86 69.2 135 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
Dayton 3.6 31.7 17.2 12.3 9.4 7.2 5.7 4.5 3.4 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2
Saint Louis 4.5 21.2 15.2 12.3 10.4 8.7 7.1 6.2 4.8 4.1 3.1 2.6 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.4
Loyola Chicago 4.8 17.8 14.7 12.3 10.4 8.8 7.5 6.3 5.4 4.9 3.6 3.0 2.2 1.6 1.0 0.5
Virginia Commonwealth 6.0 11.3 10.6 10.2 9.5 9.2 8.1 7.8 6.9 6.4 5.4 4.8 3.9 2.8 2.1 1.0
Davidson 6.3 10.0 9.6 9.3 9.7 8.8 8.4 7.7 7.4 6.3 6.0 5.1 4.3 3.4 2.4 1.5
Richmond 6.1 9.7 10.9 10.2 10.0 8.9 8.4 7.4 6.8 6.3 5.6 4.7 4.1 3.1 2.4 1.4
St. Bonaventure 7.1 5.6 7.6 8.3 8.5 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.2 7.6 6.7 6.2 5.6 4.4 3.4 2.2
Rhode Island 7.6 5.1 6.7 7.1 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 7.7 7.4 7.3 6.8 6.3 5.7 4.5 3.5
George Mason 8.2 3.4 4.7 5.9 6.6 7.3 7.4 7.8 8.1 8.5 8.3 8.2 7.5 6.7 5.5 3.8
Massachusetts 8.0 4.7 5.8 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 6.9 6.3 5.7 4.4
Saint Joseph's 9.3 2.0 3.1 4.1 4.9 5.4 6.3 7.1 7.7 8.2 8.3 8.8 8.9 9.0 8.6 7.5
Duquesne 10.1 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.6 4.3 5.2 5.9 6.8 7.2 8.4 9.2 10.0 10.8 11.2 11.0
La Salle 10.1 1.0 2.0 2.8 3.6 4.6 5.1 5.9 6.8 7.7 8.2 9.3 10.2 10.8 11.2 10.8
George Washington 10.7 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.5 5.0 5.9 6.8 8.0 9.3 10.1 11.7 12.7 14.7
Fordham 11.0 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.6 5.6 6.6 7.5 9.1 10.6 12.6 14.4 15.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Dayton 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.9 5.3 7.0 9.3 10.9 12.1 12.8 12.5 10.3 7.0 3.1
Saint Louis 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 4.1 5.7 7.3 9.3 11.0 11.7 11.5 11.3 9.6 6.8 4.1 1.5
Loyola Chicago 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.0 9.7 10.9 11.5 11.7 10.5 8.7 6.0 3.3 1.1
Virginia Commonwealth 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.6 5.3 7.2 8.5 10.0 10.7 11.0 10.8 9.5 7.7 5.2 3.5 1.8 0.6
Davidson 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.4 5.9 7.4 9.1 10.3 10.8 10.9 10.1 8.8 6.9 5.1 3.1 1.6 0.4
Richmond 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.6 3.9 5.5 7.0 8.7 9.8 10.6 11.1 10.4 9.4 7.6 5.3 3.4 1.6 0.4
St. Bonaventure 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.5 7.2 8.9 10.4 11.0 11.3 10.4 9.1 7.3 5.2 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.2
Rhode Island 9 - 9 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.2 4.7 6.7 8.0 9.4 10.2 10.6 10.4 9.6 8.1 6.5 4.6 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.1
George Mason 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.8 5.8 7.6 9.6 10.8 11.1 10.9 10.0 8.6 6.8 4.9 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
Massachusetts 9 - 9 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.8 5.5 7.2 8.5 9.8 10.4 10.5 9.6 8.9 7.2 5.6 4.2 2.7 1.6 0.6 0.2
Saint Joseph's 7 - 11 0.7 2.0 3.8 6.3 8.1 9.5 10.7 10.9 10.8 10.0 8.4 6.5 5.0 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Duquesne 7 - 11 1.2 3.3 5.6 8.0 10.2 10.9 11.5 10.8 9.8 8.5 6.7 5.0 3.6 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
La Salle 7 - 11 1.1 3.1 5.6 8.0 10.1 11.4 11.6 10.7 9.8 8.6 6.9 5.1 3.5 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
George Washington 6 - 12 1.7 4.4 7.4 9.5 11.0 11.8 11.4 10.6 8.9 7.3 5.6 4.2 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Fordham 6 - 12 1.9 4.8 8.1 10.7 11.8 12.1 11.6 10.0 8.5 6.8 5.1 3.5 2.4 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Dayton 31.7% 22.0 7.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 21.2% 13.9 5.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 17.8% 11.4 4.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 11.3% 6.8 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Davidson 10.0% 6.0 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Richmond 9.7% 5.5 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 5.6% 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 5.1% 2.6 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
George Mason 3.4% 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Massachusetts 4.7% 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 2.0% 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
La Salle 1.0% 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Washington 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Dayton 56.2% 20.2% 36.0% 11   3.1 3.8 3.8 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.8 4.8 5.8 6.7 6.4 2.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 43.8 45.1%
Saint Louis 49.3% 15.6% 33.7% 11   2.1 2.6 2.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.4 5.7 6.8 6.6 2.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 50.7 39.9%
Loyola Chicago 34.8% 12.9% 21.9% 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.7 4.8 5.9 3.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 65.2 25.2%
Virginia Commonwealth 27.9% 9.7% 18.2% 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.4 3.3 4.3 5.2 2.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 72.1 20.2%
Davidson 24.6% 8.1% 16.5% 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.9 3.9 4.9 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 75.4 18.0%
Richmond 21.3% 7.4% 13.9% 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.3 3.4 4.3 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 78.7 15.0%
St. Bonaventure 13.4% 5.2% 8.2% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 86.6 8.7%
Rhode Island 10.1% 4.4% 5.7% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 89.9 5.9%
George Mason 8.4% 3.7% 4.6% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.1 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 91.7 4.8%
Massachusetts 8.9% 3.9% 5.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 91.1 5.2%
Saint Joseph's 4.3% 2.4% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 95.7 1.9%
Duquesne 3.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 96.9 1.2%
La Salle 2.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 97.3 1.0%
George Washington 2.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 98.0 0.5%
Fordham 1.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 98.2 0.5%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Dayton 56.2% 4.8% 54.1% 35.0% 17.0% 8.4% 3.8% 1.8% 0.8%
Saint Louis 49.3% 5.8% 46.4% 27.3% 12.1% 5.4% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4%
Loyola Chicago 34.8% 4.6% 32.7% 18.2% 7.6% 3.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Virginia Commonwealth 27.9% 4.3% 25.9% 13.4% 5.2% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Davidson 24.6% 4.5% 22.3% 11.0% 4.0% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Richmond 21.3% 3.9% 19.3% 9.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 13.4% 2.8% 12.1% 5.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Rhode Island 10.1% 2.2% 8.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 8.4% 2.0% 7.4% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 8.9% 2.0% 7.9% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 4.3% 1.1% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 3.1% 0.9% 2.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 2.7% 0.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 2.0% 0.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 1.8% 0.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.7 12.3 32.9 33.6 16.6 4.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 2.5 0.1 16.1 36.9 31.3 12.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
2nd Round 80.8% 1.3 19.2 41.9 28.7 8.6 1.3 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 45.3% 0.5 54.8 36.8 7.7 0.7 0.0 0.0
Elite Eight 21.9% 0.2 78.1 20.4 1.5 0.1
Final Four 9.6% 0.1 90.4 9.3 0.2 0.0
Final Game 4.2% 0.0 95.8 4.2 0.0
Champion 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7