Preseason Rankings
Dayton
Atlantic 10
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.7#28
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.3#349
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#43
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.1% 3.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 7.0% 7.0% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 15.3% 15.4% 3.5%
Top 6 Seed 24.4% 24.4% 7.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.2% 56.3% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.1% 45.2% 7.6%
Average Seed 7.0 7.0 8.8
.500 or above 94.8% 94.8% 57.4%
.500 or above in Conference 90.3% 90.4% 58.9%
Conference Champion 31.7% 31.7% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 3.5%
First Four4.8% 4.8% 1.8%
First Round54.1% 54.1% 12.4%
Second Round35.0% 35.1% 5.3%
Sweet Sixteen17.0% 17.0% 3.5%
Elite Eight8.4% 8.4% 1.8%
Final Four3.8% 3.8% 1.8%
Championship Game1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.8% 0.8% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 3
Quad 24 - 26 - 6
Quad 37 - 113 - 7
Quad 49 - 022 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 355   Lindenwood W 83-51 99.9%   
  Nov 11, 2022 95   SMU W 71-61 81%    
  Nov 15, 2022 105   @ UNLV W 67-62 67%    
  Nov 19, 2022 277   Robert Morris W 78-56 97%    
  Nov 23, 2022 41   Wisconsin W 65-63 55%    
  Nov 30, 2022 262   Western Michigan W 74-53 96%    
  Dec 03, 2022 316   SE Louisiana W 83-58 98%    
  Dec 07, 2022 34   @ Virginia Tech L 61-63 42%    
  Dec 10, 2022 211   UNC Asheville W 75-58 92%    
  Dec 17, 2022 62   Wyoming W 68-64 62%    
  Dec 21, 2022 350   Alcorn St. W 81-51 99%    
  Dec 28, 2022 178   Duquesne W 73-57 90%    
  Dec 31, 2022 81   @ Davidson W 66-64 58%    
  Jan 04, 2023 149   Saint Joseph's W 73-59 87%    
  Jan 10, 2023 202   @ Fordham W 68-57 81%    
  Jan 13, 2023 75   Virginia Commonwealth W 68-60 72%    
  Jan 17, 2023 81   Davidson W 69-61 75%    
  Jan 21, 2023 196   @ George Washington W 73-62 80%    
  Jan 25, 2023 112   @ Rhode Island W 67-61 68%    
  Jan 28, 2023 88   Richmond W 70-61 76%    
  Jan 31, 2023 54   Loyola Chicago W 65-59 68%    
  Feb 04, 2023 103   @ St. Bonaventure W 67-62 65%    
  Feb 07, 2023 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth W 65-63 55%    
  Feb 10, 2023 45   Saint Louis W 70-65 65%    
  Feb 17, 2023 54   @ Loyola Chicago L 61-62 50%    
  Feb 22, 2023 124   @ Massachusetts W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 25, 2023 123   George Mason W 70-58 83%    
  Feb 28, 2023 182   La Salle W 73-57 89%    
  Mar 04, 2023 45   @ Saint Louis L 67-68 47%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 3.7 7.9 9.1 6.9 3.1 31.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.2 6.5 4.3 1.1 0.0 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.3 1.9 0.2 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.6 1.7 0.1 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.9 5.3 7.0 9.3 10.9 12.1 12.8 12.5 10.3 7.0 3.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
17-1 99.7% 6.9    6.5 0.4
16-2 88.8% 9.1    7.1 2.0 0.1
15-3 63.1% 7.9    4.2 3.0 0.6 0.0
14-4 29.3% 3.7    1.1 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.8% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.7% 31.7 22.0 7.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.1% 99.8% 54.3% 45.5% 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
17-1 7.0% 99.5% 41.6% 57.8% 3.1 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
16-2 10.3% 97.2% 34.4% 62.8% 4.9 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 95.8%
15-3 12.5% 91.2% 27.6% 63.6% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.1 87.8%
14-4 12.8% 78.0% 22.4% 55.6% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.8 71.6%
13-5 12.1% 58.4% 17.1% 41.4% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 5.0 49.9%
12-6 10.9% 38.6% 13.6% 25.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 6.7 29.0%
11-7 9.3% 21.2% 10.6% 10.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 7.3 11.9%
10-8 7.0% 11.7% 8.2% 3.6% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2 3.9%
9-9 5.3% 7.8% 6.5% 1.4% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.9 1.5%
8-10 3.9% 4.3% 4.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.7
7-11 2.6% 3.0% 3.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
5-13 0.9% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 56.2% 20.2% 36.0% 7.0 3.1 3.8 3.8 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.8 4.8 5.8 6.7 6.4 2.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 43.8 45.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 1.4 62.1 31.1 6.5 0.2