Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Sun
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
100 Liberty 35.1%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 7 14 - 4 +5.3      +2.2 120 +3.1 93 64.0 299 0.0 1 0.0 1
160 Jacksonville 13.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 12 11 - 7 +0.4      -1.0 215 +1.4 133 57.5 361 0.0 1 0.0 1
203 Florida Gulf Coast 9.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 7 -1.4      +1.5 143 -2.9 269 74.4 44 0.0 1 0.0 1
209 Jacksonville St. 9.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -1.6      0.0 179 -1.6 226 64.2 288 0.0 1 0.0 1
219 Eastern Kentucky 7.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -2.3      +0.6 170 -2.9 268 76.1 25 0.0 1 0.0 1
225 Lipscomb 7.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -2.8      +0.6 169 -3.4 280 72.8 67 0.0 1 0.0 1
242 Kennesaw St. 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 10 - 8 -3.5      -0.1 183 -3.4 277 65.9 244 0.0 1 0.0 1
243 North Florida 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -3.5      -0.6 199 -2.8 265 70.1 115 0.0 1 0.0 1
250 Bellarmine 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 9 -4.0      -0.3 189 -3.6 287 58.9 354 0.0 1 0.0 1
254 Austin Peay 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 9 - 9 -4.5      -3.0 265 -1.5 223 63.1 319 0.0 1 0.0 1
292 Stetson 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 11 -7.9      -3.8 285 -4.1 297 65.1 263 0.0 1 0.0 1
309 North Alabama 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -9.0      -5.0 308 -4.0 293 69.1 138 0.0 1 0.0 1
321 Queens 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 19 6 - 12 -9.9      -3.2 272 -6.6 342 68.3 172 0.0 1 0.0 1
334 Central Arkansas 0.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 22 5 - 13 -11.4      -4.2 294 -7.1 347 78.6 10 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Liberty 2.7 43.5 19.0 11.5 7.9 5.4 3.9 2.9 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0
Jacksonville 4.8 17.1 15.0 12.4 10.1 9.1 7.8 6.6 5.8 4.7 3.8 3.0 2.3 1.6 0.7
Florida Gulf Coast 5.4 11.4 12.8 11.8 10.7 9.6 8.7 7.7 6.7 5.7 4.9 4.0 2.8 2.1 1.2
Jacksonville St. 6.0 9.5 10.0 10.6 10.0 9.5 8.9 8.3 7.5 7.0 5.8 5.0 3.8 2.8 1.4
Eastern Kentucky 6.0 8.8 9.9 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.1 8.6 7.8 7.0 5.9 4.7 3.7 2.8 1.5
Lipscomb 6.5 7.3 8.3 8.9 9.4 9.6 8.9 8.7 8.2 7.5 6.7 5.9 4.9 3.5 2.1
Kennesaw St. 6.5 7.4 8.9 9.1 9.2 8.9 8.8 8.4 8.1 7.4 6.4 5.9 5.1 3.9 2.7
North Florida 6.9 6.4 7.9 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.4 8.1 7.9 7.6 6.7 5.7 4.5 2.7
Bellarmine 7.1 5.1 6.4 7.8 8.4 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.8 8.6 7.8 7.1 6.1 4.7 2.8
Austin Peay 7.1 5.5 6.9 7.9 8.3 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.4 7.4 7.2 6.2 5.0 3.5
Stetson 9.3 1.4 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.1 6.1 6.9 7.8 8.9 9.8 11.0 11.6 11.2 9.7
North Alabama 9.6 1.0 1.9 3.0 3.7 4.8 5.6 6.7 7.7 9.1 9.7 10.9 11.9 12.2 11.7
Queens 10.4 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.3 3.2 4.0 5.1 6.4 7.8 9.7 11.6 14.1 16.4 15.8
Central Arkansas 10.9 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.6 3.4 4.2 5.4 6.8 8.4 10.8 13.3 17.5 23.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Liberty 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.3 3.4 4.9 6.9 9.4 11.5 13.4 14.3 14.2 11.2 5.7
Jacksonville 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.7 5.2 6.4 8.4 9.6 10.6 11.0 10.9 9.8 8.4 5.8 3.5 1.3
Florida Gulf Coast 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.3 4.8 6.3 8.0 9.6 10.5 11.2 10.9 10.1 8.5 6.2 3.9 1.9 0.6
Jacksonville St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.3 6.0 7.5 8.9 10.2 11.0 10.8 10.1 8.9 6.9 5.0 3.0 1.3 0.4
Eastern Kentucky 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.1 6.0 7.8 9.2 10.7 11.0 11.1 10.2 8.5 7.0 4.7 2.8 1.3 0.3
Lipscomb 10 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.3 7.1 8.5 9.8 10.2 11.1 10.5 9.3 7.7 5.6 3.9 2.3 0.9 0.3
Kennesaw St. 10 - 8 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 3.8 5.4 7.0 8.1 9.8 10.3 10.4 10.2 9.2 7.4 6.0 4.2 2.5 1.1 0.3
North Florida 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.4 6.1 7.6 9.2 10.0 10.3 10.4 9.8 8.4 7.0 4.9 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.3
Bellarmine 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.9 4.7 6.5 8.0 10.0 10.9 11.0 10.5 9.6 8.2 6.2 4.4 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.2
Austin Peay 9 - 9 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.3 4.9 6.5 8.2 9.5 9.9 10.5 10.3 9.2 7.9 6.3 4.7 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.2
Stetson 7 - 11 1.1 3.0 5.4 7.7 9.6 11.3 11.2 10.9 9.8 8.8 6.8 5.3 3.8 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
North Alabama 7 - 11 1.3 3.5 6.0 8.6 10.2 11.3 11.5 11.0 9.7 8.0 6.7 4.6 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Queens 6 - 12 2.0 5.4 8.7 11.2 12.3 12.7 11.7 10.3 8.0 6.2 4.4 3.0 1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 5 - 13 3.5 8.0 11.0 12.3 12.8 12.0 10.2 8.9 6.9 5.2 3.6 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 43.5% 32.0 9.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville 17.1% 10.8 4.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 11.4% 6.8 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 9.5% 5.6 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 8.8% 5.0 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Lipscomb 7.3% 4.2 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 7.4% 4.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
North Florida 6.4% 3.5 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Bellarmine 5.1% 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Austin Peay 5.5% 2.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stetson 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Alabama 1.0% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Queens 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 35.1% 33.9% 1.2% 14   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 3.5 7.9 8.7 6.7 3.6 1.6 64.9 1.8%
Jacksonville 13.3% 13.0% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 2.9 2.7 2.3 1.8 86.7 0.4%
Florida Gulf Coast 9.4% 9.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 90.6 0.2%
Jacksonville St. 9.0% 8.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.8 91.0 0.1%
Eastern Kentucky 7.5% 7.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 92.5 0.1%
Lipscomb 7.0% 6.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 93.0 0.1%
Kennesaw St. 5.8% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 94.2 0.0%
North Florida 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.6 94.2 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Austin Peay 4.5% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 95.5 0.0%
Stetson 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 98.1 0.0%
North Alabama 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 98.7 0.0%
Queens 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 99.0 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 35.1% 1.2% 34.5% 8.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Jacksonville 13.3% 1.3% 12.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 9.4% 1.3% 8.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 9.0% 1.3% 8.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 7.5% 1.1% 7.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 7.0% 1.1% 6.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 5.8% 1.0% 5.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 5.8% 1.1% 5.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Austin Peay 4.5% 1.0% 4.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 1.9% 0.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 1.3% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 1.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.0 2.0 0.0
1st Round 94.3% 1.0 5.7 93.0 1.4 0.0
2nd Round 14.1% 0.1 85.9 14.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9 0.0
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0