Preseason Rankings
Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.8#225
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.8#67
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.6#169
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#280
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.0% 12.0% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.3 14.5
.500 or above 47.9% 74.0% 40.0%
.500 or above in Conference 61.8% 79.5% 56.5%
Conference Champion 7.3% 13.6% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 1.0% 4.7%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.2%
First Round6.3% 11.5% 4.8%
Second Round0.5% 1.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Dakota (Away) - 23.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 10
Quad 410 - 513 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 135   @ South Dakota L 72-80 23%    
  Nov 14, 2022 115   Belmont L 77-80 38%    
  Nov 18, 2022 40   @ Notre Dame L 67-84 7%    
  Nov 23, 2022 130   @ Chattanooga L 68-77 23%    
  Nov 30, 2022 246   Navy W 71-67 63%    
  Dec 09, 2022 341   @ Alabama A&M W 74-67 71%    
  Dec 11, 2022 276   @ Tennessee St. W 77-76 51%    
  Dec 14, 2022 305   Tennessee Tech W 84-75 76%    
  Dec 17, 2022 15   @ Michigan L 65-86 5%    
  Dec 20, 2022 73   @ Louisville L 68-82 13%    
  Dec 30, 2022 292   Stetson W 78-70 74%    
  Jan 02, 2023 100   @ Liberty L 67-78 18%    
  Jan 05, 2023 309   North Alabama W 80-71 77%    
  Jan 07, 2023 160   @ Jacksonville L 65-71 31%    
  Jan 12, 2023 254   @ Austin Peay L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 14, 2023 254   Austin Peay W 74-69 65%    
  Jan 19, 2023 219   Eastern Kentucky W 82-80 58%    
  Jan 21, 2023 250   Bellarmine W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 26, 2023 209   @ Jacksonville St. L 72-76 37%    
  Jan 28, 2023 242   @ Kennesaw St. L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 02, 2023 321   Queens W 82-72 79%    
  Feb 04, 2023 100   Liberty L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 09, 2023 334   @ Central Arkansas W 85-79 67%    
  Feb 11, 2023 309   @ North Alabama W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 16, 2023 243   North Florida W 79-75 62%    
  Feb 18, 2023 160   Jacksonville L 67-68 50%    
  Feb 22, 2023 203   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 79-83 36%    
  Feb 24, 2023 292   @ Stetson W 75-73 57%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.3 7.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 2.7 2.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.2 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.4 3.7 1.2 0.1 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 4.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.3 1.5 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 4.2 2.1 0.2 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 3.2 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.5 0.8 0.1 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.0 0.9 0.1 4.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 3.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.6 5.3 7.1 8.5 9.8 10.2 11.1 10.5 9.3 7.7 5.6 3.9 2.3 0.9 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.2% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-2 87.4% 2.0    1.5 0.5 0.0
15-3 55.0% 2.1    1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 26.4% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.3% 7.3 4.2 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 70.5% 61.0% 9.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 24.4%
17-1 0.9% 48.1% 45.0% 3.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 5.6%
16-2 2.3% 32.6% 31.2% 1.3% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 2.0%
15-3 3.9% 23.2% 22.9% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.0 0.3%
14-4 5.6% 17.8% 17.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.6
13-5 7.7% 12.7% 12.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 6.7
12-6 9.3% 9.1% 9.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 8.4
11-7 10.5% 6.2% 6.2% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 9.8
10-8 11.1% 4.6% 4.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 10.6
9-9 10.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.0
8-10 9.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.6
7-11 8.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 8.4
6-12 7.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.0
5-13 5.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.3
4-14 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 2.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.0% 6.9% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.6 93.0 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%