IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2022-23

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.4	#334
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	78.6	#10
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.2	#294

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-7.1	#347

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.6%	2.5%	0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.5	15.0	15.5

.500 or above	7.6%	34.8%	6.8%
.500 or above in Conference	14.4%	40.2%	13.7%
Conference Champion	0.4%	2.2%	0.3%
Last Place in Conference	32.8%	10.8%	33.4%

First Four	0.3%	0.8%	0.3%
First Round	0.4%	2.2%	0.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 2.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 3
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	1 - 7	1 - 12
Quad 4	7 - 10	8 - 22

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2022	94	@ Wichita St.	L	67-87	3%
Nov 14, 2022	261	Arkansas Little Rock	L	76-79	39%
Nov 18, 2022	239	Niagara	L	68-76	24%
Nov 19, 2022	218	Rider	L	73-82	21%
Nov 26, 2022	338	Northwestern St.	W	85-82	61%
Nov 27, 2022	324	Idaho St.	W	74-72	56%
Nov 30, 2022	54	@ Loyola Chicago	L	61-85	2%
Dec 06, 2022	230	Arkansas St.	L	75-80	32%
Dec 10, 2022	122	@ Oral Roberts	L	77-95	7%
Dec 17, 2022	33	@ Oklahoma	L	62-88	1%
Dec 20, 2022	261	@ Arkansas Little Rock	L	73-82	24%
Dec 28, 2022	19	@ TCU	L	61-90	1%
Dec 31, 2022	242	@ Kennesaw St.	L	72-83	19%
Jan 02, 2023	203	Florida Gulf Coast	L	80-87	29%
Jan 05, 2023	219	Eastern Kentucky	L	81-87	31%
Jan 07, 2023	254	@ Austin Peay	L	68-78	21%
Jan 12, 2023	321	@ Queens	L	77-81	36%
Jan 14, 2023	100	@ Liberty	L	64-84	6%
Jan 18, 2023	309	North Alabama	W	78-77	52%
Jan 21, 2023	309	@ North Alabama	L	75-80	33%
Jan 26, 2023	243	North Florida	L	77-82	35%
Jan 28, 2023	160	Jacksonville	L	65-74	25%
Feb 02, 2023	203	@ Florida Gulf Coast	L	77-90	15%
Feb 04, 2023	292	@ Stetson	L	73-79	30%
Feb 09, 2023	225	Lipscomb	L	79-85	33%
Feb 11, 2023	254	Austin Peay	L	71-75	38%
Feb 16, 2023	219	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	78-90	17%
Feb 18, 2023	250	@ Bellarmine	L	68-78	21%
Feb 22, 2023	209	Jacksonville St.	L	72-79	30%
Feb 24, 2023	242	Kennesaw St.	L	75-80	35%
Projected Record						8 - 22	5 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.4	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0				0.9	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0					1.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	0.9	0.7	0.1	0.0						2.1	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.0							2.6	5th
6th								0.0	0.3	1.4	1.3	0.3	0.0								3.4	6th
7th							0.0	0.2	1.4	2.0	0.5	0.0									4.2	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	1.3	2.7	1.2	0.1										5.4	8th
9th						0.1	1.1	3.4	1.9	0.2											6.8	9th
10th				0.0	0.1	1.2	3.6	3.0	0.5	0.0											8.4	10th
11th			0.0	0.1	1.5	4.4	3.8	0.9	0.0												10.8	11th
12th		0.0	0.3	1.9	5.1	4.5	1.4	0.1													13.3	12th
13th		0.8	3.7	6.3	5.0	1.6	0.1														17.5	13th
14th	3.5	7.3	7.0	4.0	1.2	0.1	0.0														23.1	14th

Total	3.5	8.0	11.0	12.3	12.8	12.0	10.2	8.9	6.9	5.2	3.6	2.3	1.6	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	81.4%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
15-3	55.6%	0.1		0.1	0.0	0.0
14-4	21.4%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-5	7.2%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-6	1.2%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0						0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.4%	0.4		0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																	0.0
17-1	0.0%		34.4%	34.4%		11.5												0.0	0.0					0.0
16-2	0.1%		4.4%	4.4%		14.0															0.0			0.1
15-3	0.2%		10.0%	10.0%		13.8														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
14-4	0.5%		4.6%	4.6%		14.3														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.5
13-5	0.9%		7.4%	7.4%		14.9															0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9
12-6	1.6%		5.3%	5.3%		15.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	1.5
11-7	2.3%		3.1%	3.1%		15.7																0.0	0.1	2.3
10-8	3.6%		2.1%	2.1%		15.9																0.0	0.1	3.5
9-9	5.2%		1.0%	1.0%		16.0																0.0	0.0	5.1
8-10	6.9%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	6.8
7-11	8.9%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	8.8
6-12	10.2%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	10.1
5-13	12.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	12.0
4-14	12.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.8
3-15	12.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.3
2-16	11.0%																							11.0
1-17	8.0%																							8.0
0-18	3.5%																							3.5

Total	100%		0.6%	0.6%	0.0%	15.5												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	99.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	1.2%