Preseason Rankings
Kennesaw St.
Atlantic Sun
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#242
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.9#244
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#183
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.4#277
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 14.8% 5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.1 14.5
.500 or above 47.4% 86.1% 45.7%
.500 or above in Conference 61.4% 88.2% 60.3%
Conference Champion 7.4% 20.9% 6.8%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 0.1% 4.9%
First Four1.0% 0.5% 1.0%
First Round5.3% 14.6% 4.9%
Second Round0.4% 2.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Away) - 4.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 411 - 513 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 30   @ Florida L 60-79 4%    
  Nov 18, 2022 316   SE Louisiana W 79-73 70%    
  Nov 19, 2022 183   @ Appalachian St. L 64-70 30%    
  Nov 20, 2022 256   Campbell W 66-65 54%    
  Nov 26, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-77 11%    
  Dec 02, 2022 198   @ Mercer L 67-72 33%    
  Dec 05, 2022 335   @ Charleston Southern W 76-71 66%    
  Dec 12, 2022 23   @ San Diego St. L 56-76 5%    
  Dec 20, 2022 345   South Carolina Upstate W 79-66 84%    
  Dec 23, 2022 13   @ Indiana L 60-82 4%    
  Dec 31, 2022 334   Central Arkansas W 83-72 81%    
  Jan 02, 2023 219   Eastern Kentucky W 78-76 56%    
  Jan 05, 2023 243   @ North Florida L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 07, 2023 321   @ Queens W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 12, 2023 160   Jacksonville L 64-65 48%    
  Jan 14, 2023 243   North Florida W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 19, 2023 292   @ Stetson W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 21, 2023 203   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 74-79 35%    
  Jan 26, 2023 254   Austin Peay W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 28, 2023 225   Lipscomb W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 02, 2023 250   @ Bellarmine L 66-69 42%    
  Feb 04, 2023 219   @ Eastern Kentucky L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 09, 2023 209   @ Jacksonville St. L 67-72 35%    
  Feb 11, 2023 209   Jacksonville St. W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 16, 2023 100   Liberty L 66-72 33%    
  Feb 18, 2023 321   Queens W 77-68 77%    
  Feb 22, 2023 309   @ North Alabama W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 24, 2023 334   @ Central Arkansas W 80-75 65%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.3 7.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.5 3.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 8.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.4 3.6 1.1 0.2 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.4 2.6 4.1 1.6 0.2 8.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.2 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.6 0.8 0.1 5.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 0.9 0.1 5.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.7 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 3.8 5.4 7.0 8.1 9.8 10.3 10.4 10.2 9.2 7.4 6.0 4.2 2.5 1.1 0.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 97.5% 1.1    0.9 0.2
16-2 80.5% 2.0    1.4 0.6 0.0
15-3 51.1% 2.1    1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 24.1% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 5.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 4.0 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 50.2% 45.7% 4.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.2%
17-1 1.1% 39.7% 38.1% 1.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 2.5%
16-2 2.5% 28.0% 27.8% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 0.3%
15-3 4.2% 19.6% 19.5% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 0.0%
14-4 6.0% 14.1% 14.1% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 5.1
13-5 7.4% 10.5% 10.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 6.6
12-6 9.2% 7.3% 7.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 8.5
11-7 10.2% 4.6% 4.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 9.7
10-8 10.4% 3.3% 3.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 10.1
9-9 10.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.1
8-10 9.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.6
7-11 8.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.1
6-12 7.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.0
5-13 5.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.4
4-14 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
3-15 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
2-16 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 5.8% 5.7% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%