Preseason Rankings
Nicholls St.
Southland
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#220
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.5#54
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#206
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#221
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.1% 66.3% 39.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 13.5 14.9
.500 or above 68.1% 95.5% 67.4%
.500 or above in Conference 91.7% 99.2% 91.5%
Conference Champion 46.0% 76.9% 45.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four8.2% 2.6% 8.3%
First Round35.6% 64.9% 34.9%
Second Round1.9% 8.4% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 1.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.6% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 2.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 31 - 11 - 7
Quad 413 - 414 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 12   @ Arizona L 71-92 2%    
  Nov 10, 2022 62   @ Wyoming L 66-80 9%    
  Nov 19, 2022 55   @ BYU L 68-83 10%    
  Nov 25, 2022 143   UC Irvine L 67-71 37%    
  Dec 07, 2022 17   @ Texas Tech L 60-80 5%    
  Dec 15, 2022 316   SE Louisiana W 84-74 80%    
  Dec 17, 2022 64   @ Mississippi St. L 65-79 12%    
  Dec 28, 2022 4   @ Baylor L 64-88 3%    
  Jan 05, 2023 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 76-69 73%    
  Jan 07, 2023 338   @ Northwestern St. W 83-77 70%    
  Jan 12, 2023 301   @ Lamar W 74-71 59%    
  Jan 14, 2023 338   Northwestern St. W 86-74 84%    
  Jan 19, 2023 331   McNeese St. W 84-72 82%    
  Jan 21, 2023 331   @ McNeese St. W 81-75 67%    
  Jan 26, 2023 344   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79-71 73%    
  Jan 28, 2023 348   @ Incarnate Word W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 02, 2023 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 79-66 85%    
  Feb 04, 2023 298   @ Houston Christian W 65-62 58%    
  Feb 09, 2023 286   New Orleans W 84-76 74%    
  Feb 11, 2023 316   @ SE Louisiana W 81-77 62%    
  Feb 16, 2023 344   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 82-68 85%    
  Feb 18, 2023 348   Incarnate Word W 79-65 87%    
  Feb 23, 2023 286   @ New Orleans W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 25, 2023 298   Houston Christian W 68-59 75%    
  Mar 01, 2023 301   Lamar W 77-68 76%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.9 6.9 10.2 11.3 9.2 4.8 46.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.9 6.3 5.4 2.6 0.6 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.2 3.4 4.5 6.1 8.0 10.0 11.6 12.8 12.8 11.9 9.2 4.8 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.8    4.8
17-1 100.0% 9.2    9.0 0.2
16-2 95.2% 11.3    10.0 1.3 0.0
15-3 79.2% 10.2    7.6 2.4 0.2
14-4 53.7% 6.9    3.7 2.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 25.0% 2.9    0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.1% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 46.0% 46.0 36.2 8.1 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.8% 86.1% 86.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.7
17-1 9.2% 76.4% 76.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.8 2.0 0.3 2.2
16-2 11.9% 65.7% 65.7% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.1 1.3 4.1
15-3 12.8% 53.6% 53.6% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.9 2.3 5.9
14-4 12.8% 42.2% 42.2% 15.4 0.1 0.4 2.1 2.8 7.4
13-5 11.6% 32.5% 32.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 7.8
12-6 10.0% 24.4% 24.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.2 7.5
11-7 8.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3 6.7
10-8 6.1% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7 5.4
9-9 4.5% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.3 4.1
8-10 3.4% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.2 3.2
7-11 2.2% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 2.1
6-12 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
5-13 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 40.1% 40.1% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.0 8.3 11.7 14.5 59.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%