Preseason Rankings
TCU
Big 12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.3#19
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.6#252
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#34
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.1% 4.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 9.4% 9.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 22.0% 22.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 34.4% 34.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 59.1% 59.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.5% 54.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 5.9 5.9 n/a
.500 or above 89.2% 89.2% 63.4%
.500 or above in Conference 61.3% 61.3% 39.0%
Conference Champion 11.5% 11.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 7.2% 24.4%
First Four3.1% 3.1% 0.0%
First Round57.8% 57.8% 0.0%
Second Round42.1% 42.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen23.2% 23.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight11.9% 11.9% 0.0%
Final Four6.1% 6.1% 0.0%
Championship Game2.9% 2.9% 0.0%
National Champion1.4% 1.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 25 - 29 - 9
Quad 34 - 113 - 10
Quad 47 - 020 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 360   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-48 100.0%   
  Nov 11, 2022 301   Lamar W 80-54 99%    
  Nov 14, 2022 338   Northwestern St. W 88-59 99%    
  Nov 17, 2022 259   Louisiana Monroe W 82-60 97%    
  Nov 26, 2022 128   California W 69-58 83%    
  Nov 30, 2022 50   Providence W 70-63 72%    
  Dec 06, 2022 308   Jackson St. W 75-49 98%    
  Dec 10, 2022 95   SMU W 73-65 75%    
  Dec 18, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 93-51 100.0%   
  Dec 21, 2022 84   Utah W 72-65 72%    
  Dec 28, 2022 334   Central Arkansas W 90-61 99%    
  Dec 31, 2022 17   Texas Tech W 67-64 59%    
  Jan 04, 2023 4   @ Baylor L 67-74 28%    
  Jan 07, 2023 51   Iowa St. W 69-62 72%    
  Jan 11, 2023 9   @ Texas L 61-67 33%    
  Jan 14, 2023 68   Kansas St. W 72-63 76%    
  Jan 18, 2023 56   @ West Virginia W 71-69 55%    
  Jan 21, 2023 6   @ Kansas L 68-75 30%    
  Jan 24, 2023 33   Oklahoma W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 28, 2023 64   @ Mississippi St. W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 31, 2023 56   West Virginia W 74-66 73%    
  Feb 04, 2023 38   @ Oklahoma St. L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 07, 2023 68   @ Kansas St. W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 11, 2023 4   Baylor L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 15, 2023 51   @ Iowa St. W 66-65 54%    
  Feb 18, 2023 38   Oklahoma St. W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 20, 2023 6   Kansas L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 25, 2023 17   @ Texas Tech L 64-67 40%    
  Mar 01, 2023 9   Texas W 65-64 51%    
  Mar 04, 2023 33   @ Oklahoma L 66-67 48%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.7 3.1 2.3 1.2 0.4 11.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 4.4 2.9 1.0 0.2 12.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 4.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.9 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 4.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.7 3.8 5.3 6.9 8.5 9.5 10.4 10.5 9.6 9.0 7.8 5.9 4.1 2.5 1.2 0.4 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
16-2 92.5% 2.3    2.0 0.3 0.0
15-3 76.5% 3.1    2.2 0.9 0.1
14-4 45.1% 2.7    1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 17.8% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.5% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.5% 11.5 7.4 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 100.0% 47.1% 52.9% 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.2% 100.0% 35.3% 64.7% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.5% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.1% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 2.2 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.9% 99.9% 19.5% 80.4% 3.1 0.5 1.4 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 7.8% 99.7% 16.4% 83.3% 4.1 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 9.0% 98.1% 13.1% 85.0% 5.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 97.8%
11-7 9.6% 92.9% 10.7% 82.2% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 92.0%
10-8 10.5% 82.6% 9.3% 73.3% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.8 80.8%
9-9 10.4% 60.9% 7.3% 53.6% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.1 57.8%
8-10 9.5% 30.9% 5.9% 25.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 26.6%
7-11 8.5% 11.8% 4.5% 7.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.5 7.6%
6-12 6.9% 4.4% 3.4% 1.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 1.0%
5-13 5.3% 3.0% 2.9% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.2 0.1%
4-14 3.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.7
3-15 2.7% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.6
2-16 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
1-17 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6
0-18 0.1% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
Total 100% 59.1% 10.2% 48.9% 5.9 4.1 5.3 6.6 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.3 5.8 4.1 3.8 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 40.9 54.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 89.9 10.1