Preseason Rankings
Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#183
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.7#326
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#232
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#143
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.4% 9.9% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.1 15.1
.500 or above 60.2% 63.3% 26.0%
.500 or above in Conference 62.9% 65.3% 35.8%
Conference Champion 10.8% 11.5% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 5.4% 4.6% 14.3%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.3%
First Round8.9% 9.4% 2.9%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NC Central (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 10
Quad 410 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 340   NC Central W 74-59 92%    
  Nov 15, 2022 73   @ Louisville L 60-72 15%    
  Nov 18, 2022 256   Campbell W 65-58 74%    
  Nov 19, 2022 242   Kennesaw St. W 70-64 70%    
  Nov 20, 2022 316   SE Louisiana W 78-66 84%    
  Nov 23, 2022 189   @ East Tennessee St. L 65-68 41%    
  Nov 29, 2022 96   Furman L 65-68 39%    
  Dec 02, 2022 164   @ Charlotte L 64-68 38%    
  Dec 14, 2022 67   @ Wake Forest L 65-77 16%    
  Dec 21, 2022 129   UC Santa Barbara L 65-68 39%    
  Dec 29, 2022 159   @ Marshall L 71-75 38%    
  Dec 31, 2022 299   @ Southern Miss W 69-64 65%    
  Jan 05, 2023 184   Coastal Carolina W 68-65 60%    
  Jan 07, 2023 162   @ James Madison L 68-72 38%    
  Jan 12, 2023 251   Georgia Southern W 68-61 70%    
  Jan 14, 2023 235   Troy W 68-62 68%    
  Jan 19, 2023 184   @ Coastal Carolina L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 21, 2023 186   @ Old Dominion L 61-64 41%    
  Jan 26, 2023 169   Georgia St. W 68-65 58%    
  Jan 28, 2023 230   Arkansas St. W 70-64 67%    
  Feb 02, 2023 159   Marshall W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 04, 2023 162   James Madison W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 09, 2023 259   @ Louisiana Monroe W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 11, 2023 205   @ South Alabama L 64-66 44%    
  Feb 16, 2023 168   Texas St. W 64-61 58%    
  Feb 18, 2023 186   Old Dominion W 64-61 60%    
  Feb 22, 2023 169   @ Georgia St. L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 24, 2023 251   @ Georgia Southern W 65-64 52%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 2.9 2.4 1.4 0.4 10.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 9.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 3.7 2.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 3.8 3.0 0.7 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 3.3 0.8 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.0 1.6 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.4 2.3 0.2 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.8 0.8 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.4 1.2 0.1 5.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.1 1.2 0.2 5.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.2 4.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.0 14th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 3.8 4.9 6.7 8.0 9.1 10.1 10.1 10.0 9.3 8.0 6.5 4.3 2.8 1.4 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-1 99.0% 1.4    1.3 0.1
16-2 88.7% 2.4    2.0 0.5 0.0
15-3 68.0% 2.9    1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 37.0% 2.4    0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0
13-5 12.2% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 6.6 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 67.9% 48.7% 19.2% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 37.4%
17-1 1.4% 55.3% 40.7% 14.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 24.6%
16-2 2.8% 38.2% 32.4% 5.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 8.6%
15-3 4.3% 26.8% 25.8% 1.0% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.2 1.4%
14-4 6.5% 20.0% 19.8% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 5.2 0.2%
13-5 8.0% 15.3% 15.3% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.7
12-6 9.3% 11.2% 11.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 8.2
11-7 10.0% 7.7% 7.7% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 9.2
10-8 10.1% 6.7% 6.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 9.4
9-9 10.1% 4.6% 4.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 9.6
8-10 9.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.8
7-11 8.0% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.8
6-12 6.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.6
5-13 4.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.9
4-14 3.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.7
3-15 2.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 9.4% 8.9% 0.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.3 90.6 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.9 23.0 8.0 34.5 23.0 5.7 5.7
Lose Out 0.0%