Preseason Rankings
Virginia Tech
Atlantic Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#34
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.5#347
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#33
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#44
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.8% 2.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 6.4% 6.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 15.4% 15.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 25.4% 25.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.4% 51.5% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.5% 47.5% 3.9%
Average Seed 6.5 6.5 9.0
.500 or above 80.0% 80.0% 17.1%
.500 or above in Conference 62.6% 62.6% 12.4%
Conference Champion 7.5% 7.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.8% 3.8% 31.0%
First Four3.9% 3.9% 0.0%
First Round49.6% 49.7% 3.9%
Second Round32.9% 32.9% 3.9%
Sweet Sixteen15.9% 15.9% 3.9%
Elite Eight7.4% 7.4% 3.9%
Final Four3.3% 3.3% 3.9%
Championship Game1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.6% 0.6% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware St. (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 38 - 10
Quad 34 - 112 - 10
Quad 46 - 018 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 358   Delaware St. W 87-53 99.9%   
  Nov 10, 2022 282   Lehigh W 80-58 98%    
  Nov 13, 2022 295   William & Mary W 80-57 98%    
  Nov 17, 2022 186   Old Dominion W 69-56 86%    
  Nov 25, 2022 335   Charleston Southern W 82-56 99%    
  Nov 28, 2022 90   Minnesota W 70-61 76%    
  Dec 04, 2022 2   North Carolina L 69-73 38%    
  Dec 07, 2022 28   Dayton W 63-61 58%    
  Dec 11, 2022 38   Oklahoma St. W 67-66 51%    
  Dec 17, 2022 318   Grambling St. W 80-55 98%    
  Dec 21, 2022 86   @ Boston College W 66-64 58%    
  Dec 31, 2022 67   @ Wake Forest W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 04, 2023 65   Clemson W 69-63 69%    
  Jan 07, 2023 69   North Carolina St. W 72-65 71%    
  Jan 11, 2023 52   @ Syracuse L 69-70 47%    
  Jan 18, 2023 20   @ Virginia L 55-60 35%    
  Jan 21, 2023 65   @ Clemson W 67-66 50%    
  Jan 23, 2023 7   Duke L 68-71 42%    
  Jan 28, 2023 52   Syracuse W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 31, 2023 32   @ Miami (FL) L 67-70 40%    
  Feb 04, 2023 20   Virginia W 58-57 53%    
  Feb 08, 2023 86   Boston College W 69-61 74%    
  Feb 11, 2023 40   @ Notre Dame L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 15, 2023 97   @ Georgia Tech W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 18, 2023 109   Pittsburgh W 69-58 80%    
  Feb 21, 2023 32   Miami (FL) W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 25, 2023 7   @ Duke L 65-74 25%    
  Feb 28, 2023 73   @ Louisville W 67-66 53%    
  Mar 04, 2023 42   Florida St. W 70-66 63%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.0 1.7 0.9 0.3 7.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.8 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.3 2.4 0.6 0.1 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.1 0.8 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.3 1.0 0.1 7.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 1.3 0.1 6.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.2 14th
15th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 15th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.7 5.1 6.5 7.8 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.5 9.1 7.6 6.4 4.9 3.2 2.0 0.9 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 98.5% 0.9    0.8 0.1
18-2 87.0% 1.7    1.4 0.3 0.0
17-3 63.1% 2.0    1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 32.3% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 12.9% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 4.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 33.7% 66.3% 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.2% 99.9% 20.4% 79.6% 2.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 4.9% 99.8% 15.4% 84.4% 3.4 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 6.4% 99.5% 13.3% 86.2% 4.6 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-6 7.6% 97.3% 10.6% 86.7% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.9%
13-7 9.1% 92.0% 9.5% 82.5% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.7 91.2%
12-8 9.5% 78.6% 7.9% 70.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 2.0 76.8%
11-9 9.6% 57.2% 5.4% 51.7% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.1 54.7%
10-10 9.3% 35.0% 4.0% 31.0% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.0 32.3%
9-11 9.0% 12.8% 3.8% 9.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.8 9.3%
8-12 7.8% 5.3% 4.1% 1.3% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.4 1.3%
7-13 6.5% 3.1% 3.0% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.3 0.0%
6-14 5.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.0
5-15 3.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 3.6
4-16 2.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-17 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-18 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8
1-19 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 51.4% 7.5% 43.9% 6.5 2.8 3.6 4.3 4.7 4.8 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.0 4.9 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 48.6 47.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 83.6 16.4