Preseason Rankings
Montana
Big Sky
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#170
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.5#283
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#188
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#162
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.6% 26.1% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.4 14.4
.500 or above 74.0% 88.8% 64.2%
.500 or above in Conference 82.6% 91.2% 77.0%
Conference Champion 23.4% 33.0% 17.2%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.4% 2.0%
First Four1.6% 1.1% 1.8%
First Round17.9% 25.6% 12.8%
Second Round2.1% 3.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 39.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 414 - 418 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 178   @ Duquesne L 66-69 40%    
  Nov 11, 2022 27   @ Xavier L 63-79 7%    
  Nov 17, 2022 357   St. Thomas W 78-56 97%    
  Nov 18, 2022 280   Merrimack W 66-56 80%    
  Nov 19, 2022 235   Troy W 70-64 70%    
  Nov 27, 2022 231   @ Air Force W 64-63 50%    
  Nov 29, 2022 299   @ Southern Miss W 71-66 67%    
  Dec 06, 2022 134   South Dakota St. W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 10, 2022 216   @ North Dakota St. L 67-68 46%    
  Dec 17, 2022 285   Prairie View W 75-68 73%    
  Dec 20, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 65-89 3%    
  Dec 29, 2022 185   Eastern Washington W 74-71 61%    
  Dec 31, 2022 342   Idaho W 79-63 90%    
  Jan 05, 2023 320   @ Northern Arizona W 70-63 71%    
  Jan 07, 2023 213   @ Northern Colorado L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 12, 2023 208   Weber St. W 74-69 64%    
  Jan 14, 2023 324   Idaho St. W 71-58 85%    
  Jan 16, 2023 185   @ Eastern Washington L 71-74 42%    
  Jan 21, 2023 140   Montana St. W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 26, 2023 275   @ Sacramento St. W 67-64 60%    
  Jan 28, 2023 278   @ Portland St. W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 02, 2023 213   Northern Colorado W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 04, 2023 320   Northern Arizona W 73-60 85%    
  Feb 09, 2023 324   @ Idaho St. W 68-61 71%    
  Feb 11, 2023 208   @ Weber St. L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 18, 2023 140   @ Montana St. L 67-72 36%    
  Feb 23, 2023 278   Portland St. W 76-67 77%    
  Feb 25, 2023 275   Sacramento St. W 70-61 76%    
  Feb 27, 2023 342   @ Idaho W 76-66 78%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.1 6.1 6.2 3.8 1.5 23.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.1 5.9 5.8 2.7 0.6 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 4.2 5.8 3.6 0.9 0.1 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.1 4.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 2.9 4.6 6.1 8.0 9.3 10.9 11.5 11.4 10.8 8.8 6.7 3.8 1.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.5    1.5
17-1 100.0% 3.8    3.7 0.1
16-2 91.6% 6.2    5.1 1.1 0.0
15-3 69.0% 6.1    3.8 2.0 0.2
14-4 38.1% 4.1    1.8 1.8 0.5 0.0
13-5 13.2% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.4% 23.4 16.3 5.8 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.5% 73.8% 70.4% 3.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 11.5%
17-1 3.8% 58.4% 56.6% 1.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 4.1%
16-2 6.7% 45.5% 45.2% 0.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.7 0.6%
15-3 8.8% 34.4% 34.4% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 5.8 0.0%
14-4 10.8% 26.3% 26.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 7.9
13-5 11.4% 18.8% 18.8% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.3 9.3
12-6 11.5% 13.8% 13.8% 14.9 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 9.9
11-7 10.9% 10.2% 10.2% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 9.8
10-8 9.3% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 8.7
9-9 8.0% 5.5% 5.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 7.5
8-10 6.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 5.9
7-11 4.6% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.5
6-12 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.8
5-13 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-14 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.6% 18.5% 0.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.1 4.6 3.8 2.8 81.4 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 5.2 33.3 33.3 16.7 16.7