Preseason Rankings
Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#222
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.2#334
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#254
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#169
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 17.4% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 1.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.8 12.7 14.1
.500 or above 53.0% 84.1% 49.7%
.500 or above in Conference 58.4% 81.7% 55.8%
Conference Champion 8.7% 20.7% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 1.5% 7.5%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 1.1%
First Round7.6% 16.7% 6.6%
Second Round0.8% 2.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wake Forest (Away) - 9.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 10
Quad 412 - 515 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 67   @ Wake Forest L 64-78 10%    
  Nov 11, 2022 329   @ New Hampshire W 63-58 69%    
  Nov 15, 2022 27   @ Xavier L 60-78 5%    
  Nov 18, 2022 252   @ Wagner L 64-65 45%    
  Nov 25, 2022 118   Towson L 61-67 31%    
  Nov 26, 2022 198   Mercer L 64-65 46%    
  Nov 27, 2022 313   Evansville W 65-58 71%    
  Dec 01, 2022 227   @ Manhattan L 67-69 42%    
  Dec 03, 2022 145   St. Peter's L 61-62 47%    
  Dec 07, 2022 283   Sacred Heart W 73-65 74%    
  Dec 12, 2022 146   Yale L 66-67 48%    
  Dec 22, 2022 201   Drexel W 66-64 56%    
  Dec 30, 2022 296   Marist W 68-59 75%    
  Jan 01, 2023 244   Siena W 66-62 63%    
  Jan 06, 2023 239   Niagara W 64-60 62%    
  Jan 13, 2023 101   @ Iona L 64-74 21%    
  Jan 15, 2023 145   @ St. Peter's L 58-65 29%    
  Jan 20, 2023 290   Canisius W 71-63 75%    
  Jan 22, 2023 244   @ Siena L 63-65 45%    
  Jan 26, 2023 267   @ Mount St. Mary's W 61-60 51%    
  Jan 29, 2023 218   Rider W 68-65 58%    
  Feb 03, 2023 221   @ Quinnipiac L 68-71 41%    
  Feb 05, 2023 101   Iona L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 10, 2023 218   @ Rider L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 12, 2023 267   Mount St. Mary's W 64-58 69%    
  Feb 17, 2023 296   @ Marist W 65-62 58%    
  Feb 19, 2023 227   Manhattan W 70-66 61%    
  Feb 24, 2023 239   @ Niagara L 61-63 43%    
  Feb 26, 2023 290   @ Canisius W 68-66 57%    
  Mar 02, 2023 221   Quinnipiac W 71-68 59%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 8.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.9 3.1 1.9 0.7 0.1 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.1 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.6 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 3.6 3.4 1.1 0.1 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 2.6 1.0 0.1 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 6.3 10th
11th 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.4 11th
Total 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.2 4.4 5.9 7.0 8.2 9.3 9.4 9.7 9.1 8.2 6.9 5.7 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 92.6% 1.5    1.3 0.2
17-3 75.7% 2.1    1.5 0.5 0.1
16-4 49.8% 2.1    1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 24.9% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 5.6 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 75.1% 62.8% 12.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.1%
19-1 0.7% 54.3% 46.2% 8.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15.1%
18-2 1.6% 38.9% 36.3% 2.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 4.1%
17-3 2.8% 31.5% 30.6% 0.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 1.3%
16-4 4.1% 24.6% 24.4% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.1 0.3%
15-5 5.7% 19.5% 19.5% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.6 0.1%
14-6 6.9% 14.0% 14.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 5.9
13-7 8.2% 9.6% 9.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 7.4
12-8 9.1% 6.8% 6.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 8.5
11-9 9.7% 6.2% 6.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 9.1
10-10 9.4% 4.1% 4.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 9.0
9-11 9.3% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.0
8-12 8.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.0
7-13 7.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.9
6-14 5.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.8
5-15 4.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.3
4-16 3.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.2
3-17 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.0
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 8.1% 8.0% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 91.9 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.8 25.0 50.0 25.0
Lose Out 0.0%