Preseason Rankings
Yale
Ivy League
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#146
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.6#86
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#204
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#114
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.5% 27.1% 14.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 1.1% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.4 13.1 14.2
.500 or above 65.7% 79.2% 48.1%
.500 or above in Conference 77.1% 84.5% 67.5%
Conference Champion 27.1% 33.9% 18.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.6% 2.6% 7.2%
First Four2.1% 1.8% 2.6%
First Round20.5% 26.3% 13.1%
Second Round3.1% 4.6% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 1.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Neutral) - 56.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 44 - 8
Quad 410 - 214 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 185   Eastern Washington W 77-75 57%    
  Nov 13, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 88-62 99%    
  Nov 15, 2022 157   @ Hawaii L 67-69 42%    
  Nov 22, 2022 104   Vermont L 68-69 49%    
  Nov 27, 2022 59   @ Colorado L 65-76 17%    
  Nov 30, 2022 332   Howard W 85-69 90%    
  Dec 03, 2022 258   @ Stony Brook W 75-72 61%    
  Dec 06, 2022 80   @ Butler L 62-71 23%    
  Dec 10, 2022 3   @ Kentucky L 63-83 5%    
  Dec 12, 2022 222   @ Fairfield W 67-66 52%    
  Dec 22, 2022 260   @ Monmouth W 71-67 61%    
  Dec 31, 2022 315   @ Columbia W 79-71 73%    
  Jan 06, 2023 257   Dartmouth W 71-62 77%    
  Jan 07, 2023 167   Harvard W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 13, 2023 217   @ Cornell W 79-78 51%    
  Jan 16, 2023 240   Brown W 75-67 73%    
  Jan 21, 2023 150   Penn W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 28, 2023 165   Princeton W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 03, 2023 167   @ Harvard L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 04, 2023 257   @ Dartmouth W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 11, 2023 315   Columbia W 82-68 86%    
  Feb 17, 2023 150   @ Penn L 73-76 42%    
  Feb 18, 2023 165   @ Princeton L 72-74 44%    
  Feb 25, 2023 217   Cornell W 81-75 69%    
  Mar 04, 2023 240   @ Brown W 72-70 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.8 7.1 8.1 5.4 1.9 27.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.7 7.5 4.1 0.8 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.2 5.9 1.7 0.1 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.6 4.4 0.9 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.4 2.1 0.2 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 1.0 0.1 4.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.6 8th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.0 6.2 8.5 10.8 12.5 13.2 13.0 11.4 8.9 5.4 1.9 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 1.9    1.9
13-1 100.0% 5.4    5.2 0.2
12-2 91.2% 8.1    6.4 1.6 0.0
11-3 62.9% 7.1    3.9 2.9 0.4 0.0
10-4 29.0% 3.8    1.1 1.8 0.8 0.1
9-5 5.5% 0.7    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 27.1% 27.1 18.6 6.8 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 1.9% 74.2% 66.2% 8.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 23.8%
13-1 5.4% 58.6% 54.9% 3.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.2 8.2%
12-2 8.9% 44.3% 43.3% 1.0% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.9 1.8%
11-3 11.4% 34.6% 34.4% 0.3% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 7.4 0.4%
10-4 13.0% 24.5% 24.5% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.2 9.9 0.0%
9-5 13.2% 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 10.8 0.0%
8-6 12.5% 12.8% 12.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 10.9
7-7 10.8% 8.5% 8.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 9.9
6-8 8.5% 6.7% 6.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 8.0
5-9 6.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2 6.0
4-10 4.0% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.1 3.9
3-11 2.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.3
2-12 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.2
1-13 0.5% 0.5
0-14 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 21.5% 21.0% 0.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.7 4.8 4.4 3.3 2.9 78.5 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.8 24.6 26.2 16.4 8.2 24.6