Preseason Rankings
Dartmouth
Ivy League
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#257
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.3#314
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#293
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#193
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 9.5% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.1 15.0
.500 or above 33.8% 58.1% 25.0%
.500 or above in Conference 37.0% 54.1% 30.7%
Conference Champion 5.8% 11.1% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 22.4% 11.7% 26.3%
First Four1.3% 1.2% 1.3%
First Round4.7% 8.9% 3.2%
Second Round0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Away) - 26.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 73 - 10
Quad 49 - 512 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 202   @ Fordham L 60-67 27%    
  Nov 11, 2022 163   Bryant L 74-76 43%    
  Nov 15, 2022 221   @ Quinnipiac L 66-72 31%    
  Nov 25, 2022 348   Incarnate Word W 70-61 77%    
  Nov 27, 2022 249   @ Texas San Antonio L 66-70 37%    
  Nov 28, 2022 318   Grambling St. W 70-65 64%    
  Dec 03, 2022 284   Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-60 66%    
  Dec 06, 2022 104   Vermont L 61-68 29%    
  Dec 09, 2022 349   @ Central Connecticut St. W 68-62 69%    
  Dec 13, 2022 233   @ Boston University L 63-68 35%    
  Dec 16, 2022 142   @ South Florida L 57-66 22%    
  Dec 20, 2022 124   @ Massachusetts L 67-78 18%    
  Dec 29, 2022 329   New Hampshire W 65-56 76%    
  Jan 01, 2023 217   Cornell W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 06, 2023 146   @ Yale L 62-71 23%    
  Jan 07, 2023 240   @ Brown L 64-69 36%    
  Jan 14, 2023 150   Penn L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 16, 2023 167   @ Harvard L 61-69 26%    
  Jan 21, 2023 165   @ Princeton L 64-72 26%    
  Jan 28, 2023 315   Columbia W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 03, 2023 240   Brown W 67-66 54%    
  Feb 04, 2023 146   Yale L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 11, 2023 165   Princeton L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 17, 2023 217   @ Cornell L 70-76 32%    
  Feb 18, 2023 315   @ Columbia W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 25, 2023 150   @ Penn L 65-74 24%    
  Mar 04, 2023 167   Harvard L 64-66 44%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 6 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 5.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.6 1.0 0.1 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.4 3.0 0.6 0.0 9.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 5.9 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.5 6.7 3.4 0.3 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.0 7.3 3.4 0.2 17.0 6th
7th 0.3 2.8 6.3 6.4 2.2 0.2 18.2 7th
8th 1.6 4.1 4.9 3.2 0.8 0.1 14.7 8th
Total 1.6 4.5 7.7 10.5 12.7 13.3 12.8 11.4 9.0 6.9 4.7 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
13-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
12-2 92.6% 1.3    1.1 0.2
11-3 65.3% 1.9    0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-4 31.3% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
9-5 5.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.1% 78.5% 66.9% 11.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.1%
13-1 0.6% 39.9% 38.3% 1.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.6%
12-2 1.4% 33.3% 33.1% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.3%
11-3 2.9% 22.7% 22.7% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.2
10-4 4.7% 18.4% 18.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 3.9
9-5 6.9% 11.3% 11.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 6.1
8-6 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 8.2
7-7 11.4% 4.9% 4.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 10.8
6-8 12.8% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 12.4
5-9 13.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 13.0
4-10 12.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.6
3-11 10.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.4
2-12 7.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.7
1-13 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
0-14 1.6% 1.6
Total 100% 5.4% 5.3% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.9 94.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 7.8 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0
Lose Out 0.1%